{"publisher":"TheBRRR","url":"https://www.thebrrr.com/hyperscalers","annual":{"verifiedAt":"2026-09-13","currency":"USD","units":"millions","periods":["CY2023","CY2024","CY2025"],"basis":"Reported cash PP&E purchases/additions, calendar-aligned, excluding finance-lease principal and noncash lease additions. Amazon gross before sales/incentives; Meta historical disclosures sometimes label purchases net. Entire companies, not AI-only; not universally harmonized gross cash.","companies":[{"ticker":"AMZN","name":"Amazon","cashPPE2024":82999,"cashPPE2025":131819,"sources":["https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2025/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/default.aspx"],"note":"Gross cash purchases of property and equipment; not net of sales/incentives. Entire Amazon, not AWS-only or AI-only.","cashPPE2023":52729},{"ticker":"GOOGL","name":"Alphabet","cashPPE2024":52535,"cashPPE2025":91447,"sources":["https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_news/2026/Feb/04/attachments/2025q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/2024q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf"],"note":"Cash purchases of property and equipment. PDF page 6 (cash flows). Calendar year.","cashPPE2023":32251},{"ticker":"MSFT","name":"Microsoft","cashPPE2024":55552,"cashPPE2025":83094,"sources":["https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2025-Q4/cash-flows","https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2025-Q2/cash-flows","https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q2/cash-flows","https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2024-Q2/cash-flows"],"note":"CALENDARIZED, not fiscal year headline capex. CY2024 = FY2024 44477 minus Jul-Dec2023 19652 plus Jul-Dec2024 30727. CY2025 = FY2025 64551 minus Jul-Dec2024 30727 plus Jul-Dec2025 49270. Excludes noncash finance-lease additions and lease principal. CY2023 = FY2023 28107 minus Jul-Dec2022 12557 plus Jul-Dec2023 19652 =35202.","cashPPE2023":35202},{"ticker":"META","name":"Meta","cashPPE2024":37256,"cashPPE2025":69691,"sources":["https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results/","https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx"],"note":"Cash purchases of property and equipment only, excludes principal payments on finance leases. Therefore not management headline $72.215B 2025/$39.225B 2024 capex.","cashPPE2023":27045}],"totals":{"CY2024":228342,"CY2025":376051,"increase":147709,"growthPct":64.68761769626263,"averageDaily2025":1030.2767123287672,"CY2023":147227,"twoYearGrowthPct":155.42257873895414},"headline":"Four companies spent $376.1B on cash PP&E in 2025 — 64.7% more than 2024.","limitations":["Do not call this total AI investment or full infrastructure commitments.","Do not compare/sum the guidance cards with this cash-only total; definitions differ.","This is a historical 2025 view, not current run rate or live tracker."],"comparabilityNote":"Reported cash-flow line series. Do not infer physical capacity, AI-only expenditure, or energy usage. Company presentation differences remain."},"halves":{"verifiedAt":"2026-09-13","currency":"USD","units":"millions","periods":["H1 2025","H1 2026"],"basis":"Reported cash PP&E purchases/additions, calendar-aligned, excluding finance-lease principal and noncash lease additions. Amazon gross before sales/incentives; Meta historical disclosures sometimes label purchases net. Entire companies, not AI-only; not universally harmonized gross cash.","companies":[{"ticker":"AMZN","cashPPEH12025":57202,"cashPPEH12026":98411,"source":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","derivation":"Direct six months ended June30 statement cash flows. Excludes $2.101B sales/incentives in2026."},{"ticker":"GOOGL","cashPPEH12025":39643,"cashPPEH12026":80598,"source":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","derivation":"PDF page7 cash flows year-to-date June30."},{"ticker":"MSFT","cashPPEH12025":33824,"cashPPEH12026":66678,"sources":["https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast","https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q2/cash-flows"],"derivation":"H12026 =FY26 115948 minus Jul-Dec25 49270 =66678. H12025 =FY25 64551 minus Jul-Dec24 30727 =33824. Earlier annual sources provide FY25/JulDec24 comparatives."},{"ticker":"META","cashPPEH12025":29479,"cashPPEH12026":49113,"source":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","derivation":"Direct six months ended June30 purchases of property/equipment. Excludes lease principal $1.805B2026."}],"totals":{"H12025":160148,"H12026":294800,"growthPct":84.07972625321578,"increase":134652,"averageDaily2026":1628.729281767956},"comparabilityNote":"Reported cash-flow line series. Do not infer physical capacity, AI-only expenditure, or energy usage. Company presentation differences remain."},"quarterly":{"verifiedAt":"2026-09-13","units":"USD millions","basis":"Reported cash PP&E purchases/additions from cash-flow statements, calendar-aligned, excluding finance-lease principal and noncash lease additions. Amazon gross before sales/incentives; Meta historical disclosures sometimes label this line net. Do not label universally harmonized gross cash.","quarterly":[{"period":"2023-Q1","startDate":"2023-01-01","endDate":"2023-03-31","AMZN":14207,"GOOGL":6289,"MSFT":6607,"META":6823,"total":33926,"sourceRefs":{"AMZN":["AMZN_2024Q2"],"GOOGL":["GOOGL_2023Q2"],"MSFT":["MSFT_FY23Q3"],"META":["META_2024Q2"]}},{"period":"2023-Q2","startDate":"2023-04-01","endDate":"2023-06-30","AMZN":11455,"GOOGL":6888,"MSFT":8943,"META":6134,"total":33420,"sourceRefs":{"AMZN":["AMZN_2024Q2"],"GOOGL":["GOOGL_2023Q2"],"MSFT":["MSFT_FY23Q4"],"META":["META_2024Q2"]}},{"period":"2023-Q3","startDate":"2023-07-01","endDate":"2023-09-30","AMZN":12479,"GOOGL":8055,"MSFT":9917,"META":6496,"total":36947,"sourceRefs":{"AMZN":["AMZN_2023Q3"],"GOOGL":["GOOGL_2023Q3"],"MSFT":["MSFT_FY24Q1"],"META":["META_2023Q3"]}},{"period":"2023-Q4","startDate":"2023-10-01","endDate":"2023-12-31","AMZN":14588,"GOOGL":11019,"MSFT":9735,"META":7592,"total":42934,"sourceRefs":{"AMZN":["AMZN_2023Q4"],"GOOGL":["GOOGL_2023Q4"],"MSFT":["MSFT_FY24Q2"],"META":["META_2023Q4"]},"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":52729,"GOOGL":32251,"MSFT":35202,"META":27045},"trailing12MonthTotal":147227},{"period":"2024-Q1","startDate":"2024-01-01","endDate":"2024-03-31","AMZN":14925,"GOOGL":12012,"MSFT":10952,"META":6400,"total":44289,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":53447,"GOOGL":37974,"MSFT":39547,"META":26622},"trailing12MonthTotal":157590,"yearOverYearPct":30.54589400459824},{"period":"2024-Q2","startDate":"2024-04-01","endDate":"2024-06-30","AMZN":17620,"GOOGL":13186,"MSFT":13873,"META":8173,"total":52852,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":59612,"GOOGL":44272,"MSFT":44477,"META":28661},"trailing12MonthTotal":177022,"yearOverYearPct":58.14482345900658},{"period":"2024-Q3","startDate":"2024-07-01","endDate":"2024-09-30","AMZN":22620,"GOOGL":13061,"MSFT":14923,"META":8258,"total":58862,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":69753,"GOOGL":49278,"MSFT":49483,"META":30423},"trailing12MonthTotal":198937,"yearOverYearPct":59.31469402116545},{"period":"2024-Q4","startDate":"2024-10-01","endDate":"2024-12-31","AMZN":27834,"GOOGL":14276,"MSFT":15804,"META":14425,"total":72339,"trailing12MonthTotal":228342,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":82999,"GOOGL":52535,"MSFT":55552,"META":37256},"yearOverYearPct":68.48884334094191,"trailing12MonthYoYPct":55.09519313712838},{"period":"2025-Q1","startDate":"2025-01-01","endDate":"2025-03-31","AMZN":25019,"GOOGL":17197,"MSFT":16745,"META":12941,"total":71902,"trailing12MonthTotal":255955,"yearOverYearPct":62.34730971573077,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":93093,"GOOGL":57720,"MSFT":61345,"META":43797},"trailing12MonthYoYPct":62.41830065359477},{"period":"2025-Q2","startDate":"2025-04-01","endDate":"2025-06-30","AMZN":32183,"GOOGL":22446,"MSFT":17079,"META":16538,"total":88246,"trailing12MonthTotal":291349,"yearOverYearPct":66.9681374403996,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":107656,"GOOGL":66980,"MSFT":64551,"META":52162},"trailing12MonthYoYPct":64.58349809628182},{"period":"2025-Q3","startDate":"2025-07-01","endDate":"2025-09-30","AMZN":35095,"GOOGL":23953,"MSFT":19394,"META":18829,"total":97271,"trailing12MonthTotal":329758,"yearOverYearPct":65.25262478339167,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":120131,"GOOGL":77872,"MSFT":69022,"META":62733},"trailing12MonthYoYPct":65.76001447694497},{"period":"2025-Q4","startDate":"2025-10-01","endDate":"2025-12-31","AMZN":39522,"GOOGL":27851,"MSFT":29876,"META":21383,"total":118632,"trailing12MonthTotal":376051,"yearOverYearPct":63.994525774478504,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":131819,"GOOGL":91447,"MSFT":83094,"META":69691},"trailing12MonthYoYPct":64.68761769626263},{"period":"2026-Q1","startDate":"2026-01-01","endDate":"2026-03-31","AMZN":44203,"GOOGL":35674,"MSFT":30876,"META":18997,"total":129750,"trailing12MonthTotal":433899,"yearOverYearPct":80.45395121137102,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":151003,"GOOGL":109924,"MSFT":97225,"META":75747},"trailing12MonthYoYPct":69.52159559297533},{"period":"2026-Q2","startDate":"2026-04-01","endDate":"2026-06-30","AMZN":54208,"GOOGL":44924,"MSFT":35802,"META":30116,"total":165050,"trailing12MonthTotal":510703,"yearOverYearPct":87.03397321125037,"trailing12MonthByCompany":{"AMZN":173028,"GOOGL":132402,"MSFT":115948,"META":89325},"trailing12MonthYoYPct":75.28908628483366}],"sources":{"amzn2026q2":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","amzn2025q4":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","amzn2025q3":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2025/Amazon-com-Announces-Third-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","amzn2025q2":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2025/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","goog2026q2":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","goog2025q4":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_news/2026/Feb/04/attachments/2025q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","goog2025q2":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/2025q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","meta2026q2":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","meta2025q4":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results/","meta2025q3":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx","meta2025q2":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/default.aspx","msftFY26q4":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast","msftFY26q2":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q2/cash-flows","msftFY25q2":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2025-Q2/cash-flows","msftFY24q4":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2024-q4/press-release-webcast","msftFY24q2":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2024-Q2/cash-flows"},"derivations":{"AMZN":"Q1 each year = June six-month total minus June quarter.2024:32545-17620=14925;2025:57202-32183=25019;2026:98411-54208=44203. Q3 values direct2025Q3 comparative. Q4 direct2025Q4 comparative.","GOOGL":"2024Q1=25198-13186=12012; remaining2024 quarters direct comparative or trailing-quarter supplemental table in2025Q2. All2025quarters in2025Q4 supplemental table.2026Q1=80598-44924=35674;Q2direct.","MSFT":"2024Q1=FY24cash44477-JulDec23cash19652-Jun24quarter13873=10952;Q2direct13873;Q3=JulDec24cash30727-Dec24quarter15804=14923;Q4direct15804.2025Q1=FY25cash64551-JulDec24cash30727-Jun25quarter17079=16745;Q2direct17079;Q3=JulDec25cash49270-Dec25quarter29876=19394;Q4direct29876.2026Q1=FY26cash115948-JulDec25cash49270-Jun26quarter35802=30876;Q2direct35802.","META":"2024Q1=H124cash14573-Jun24quarter8173=6400;Q2direct8173;Q3direct8258;Q4direct14425.2025Q1=H125cash29479-Jun25quarter16538=12941;Q2direct16538;Q3direct18829;Q4direct21383.2026Q1=H126cash49113-Jun26quarter30116=18997;Q2direct30116."},"interpretation":{"recommendedChartTitle":"The infrastructure spending ramp","headline":"Quarterly cash PP&E spending reached $165.1B in Q2 2026.","proxy":"Financial intensity of buildout across four large technology companies; not AI-only expenditure, realized computing capacity, megawatts, or model training costs.","mapping":"Align with independently measured model capability/cost series on a common time axis as two contextual trends. Do not divide benchmark scores by aggregate corporate capex, fit a causal ROI relationship, or interpolate data into missing quarters.","whyNotElectricity":"Corporate PP&E includes construction, equipment, non-AI assets and acquisition timing; no direct mapping to electricity consumed. Inference electricity efficiency also depends on hardware, batch size, utilization, model, output length and workload.","annualization":"Annual values and H1 actuals must remain separate. A trailing-12-month series can be calculated from four actual quarters; avoid multiplying H1 by2 as actual2026."},"validation":{"calendar2024MatchesAnnual":true,"calendar2025MatchesAnnual":true,"h12026MatchesSixMonthStatements":true,"quarterlyCompanySumsMatch":true},"historicalBackfillSources":{"AMZN_2024Q2":{"url":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2024/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","publishedDate":"2024-08-01","evidence":"Cash-flow statement comparative 2023 Q2 purchases 11,455; H1 25,662. TTM June 2024 59,612."},"AMZN_2023Q3":{"url":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2023/Amazon-com-Announces-Third-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q3 purchases 12,479; first nine months 38,141."},"AMZN_2023Q4":{"url":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2024/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","publishedDate":"2024-02-01","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q4 purchases 14,588; calendar 2023 52,729. Do not substitute net 48,133."},"GOOGL_2023Q2":{"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2023/q2/2023q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","publishedDate":"2023-07-25","evidence":"PDF page 7 cash-flow statement: Q2 6,888; H1 13,177. Q1 = 13,177 - 6,888 = 6,289."},"GOOGL_2023Q3":{"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/2023q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","evidence":"PDF page 7: Q3 purchases 8,055; nine months 21,232."},"GOOGL_2023Q4":{"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/2023q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","publishedDate":"2024-01-30","evidence":"PDF page 7: Q4 purchases 11,019; year 32,251."},"MSFT_FY23Q3":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2023-Q3/cash-flows","evidence":"Three months ended March 31 2023 additions 6,607; nine months 19,164."},"MSFT_FY23Q4":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2023-Q4/press-release-webcast","evidence":"Cash-flow statement three months ended June 30 2023 additions 8,943; FY23 28,107."},"MSFT_FY24Q1":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2024-Q1/cash-flows","evidence":"Three months ended September 30 2023 additions 9,917."},"MSFT_FY24Q2":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2024-Q2/cash-flows","evidence":"Three months ended December 31 2023 additions 9,735; six months ended then 19,652; comparative six months ended December 31 2022 12,557."},"META_2024Q2":{"url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2024/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2024-Results/default.aspx","publishedDate":"2024-07-31","evidence":"Cash-flow statement comparative 2023 purchases of PP&E, net: Q2 6,134; H1 12,957. Q1 = 12,957 - 6,134 = 6,823. Comparative presentation is net, not gross."},"META_2023Q3":{"url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2023/Meta-Reports-Third-Quarter-2023-Results/default.aspx","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q3 gross purchases 6,543 less proceeds 47 = 6,496. Nine months gross 19,601 less proceeds 148 = 19,453. Explicit net line also supplied in FCF reconciliation."},"META_2023Q4":{"url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2024/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2023-Results-Initiates-Quarterly-Dividend/default.aspx","publishedDate":"2024-02-01","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q4 gross purchases 7,665 less proceeds 73 = 7,592. CY2023 gross 27,266 less proceeds 221 = 27,045. Explicit net line also supplied in FCF reconciliation."},"AMZN_2026Q1":{"url":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q1 purchases 44,203; comparative 2025 Q1 25,019. TTM purchases 151,003."},"AMZN_2026Q2":{"url":"https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx","publishedDate":"2026-07-30","evidence":"Quarter ended June 30 2026 purchases 54,208; H1 98,411; TTM 173,028. Q1 = 98,411 - 54,208 = 44,203. Comparative Q2 2025 32,183 and H1 57,202."},"GOOGL_2026Q1":{"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/2026q1-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","evidence":"PDF page 6 cash-flow statement Q1 purchases 35,674; comparative 2025 Q1 17,197. PDF page 8 TTM purchases 109,924."},"GOOGL_2026Q2":{"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2026q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","publishedDate":"2026-07-22","evidence":"PDF page 7 cash-flow statement Q2 purchases 44,924; H1 80,598. PDF page 9 trailing-quarter table repeats Q3 2025 23,953; Q4 2025 27,851; Q1 2026 35,674; Q2 2026 44,924; TTM 132,402."},"MSFT_FY26Q2":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q2/cash-flows","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q4 calendar 2025 additions 29,876; Jul-Dec 2025 49,270. Thus Q3 calendar 2025 = 19,394. Comparative Jul-Dec 2024 30,727; Q4 2024 15,804."},"MSFT_FY26Q3":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q3/press-release-webcast","evidence":"Three months ended March 31 2026 additions 30,876; first nine fiscal months 80,146. Comparative calendar Q1 2025 16,745."},"MSFT_FY26Q4":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast","publishedDate":"2026-07-29","evidence":"Three months ended June 30 2026 additions 35,802; FY26 115,948; comparative June 2025 quarter 17,079; FY25 64,551. FY26 is exactly the TTM June 2026 window."},"META_2026Q1":{"url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q1 purchases 18,997; comparative 2025 Q1 12,941. Finance lease principal 843 excluded."},"META_2026Q2":{"url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","publishedDate":"2026-07-29","evidence":"Cash-flow statement Q2 purchases 30,116; H1 49,113; comparative Q2 2025 16,538 and H1 29,479. Finance lease principal Q2 962 and H1 1,805 excluded."}},"historicalAudit":{"freshPrimarySourceAudit":["All 16 company-quarter values in calendar 2023 backfill sourced and reconciled.","All eight company-quarter values in Q1/Q2 2026 re-read from official original quarter releases and reconciled to H1 / FY cash flow statements.","Q2 2026 reporting cutoff and publication dates verified: GOOGL July 22, META July 29, MSFT July 29, AMZN July 30. All correspond to periods ended June 30 2026."],"existing2024And2025Scope":"Existing 2024/2025 values retained; aggregate annual arithmetic rechecked; 2025 Q1/Q2 comparatives and late-2025 GOOGL/MSFT checked incidentally in 2026 official releases. This pass did not freshly reopen every original 2024/2025 filing.","numericCorrectionsRequired":[],"presentationCorrectionsRequired":["Label reported cash PP&E, not gross harmonized capex; Meta 2023 net line is 27,045 versus 27,266 gross, and Meta 2024 comparative statements use net presentation.","Preserve accounting-basis difference between cash PP&E actuals and any lease-inclusive future guidance.","Data chart period is calendar quarter-end, not earnings-release date. Show July 30 2026 as latest release completion separately from June 30 2026 latest measured quarter."],"cashPPEOnly":true,"nominalUSD":true,"AIOnly":false,"financeLeasePrincipalIncluded":false,"noncashFinanceLeaseAdditionsIncluded":false,"allCompanyTotalsReconcile":true,"calendarAnnualTotalsReconcile":true,"futureDataOrForecastsIncluded":false,"annualCompanyTotals":{"2023":{"AMZN":52729,"GOOGL":32251,"MSFT":35202,"META":27045},"2024":{"AMZN":82999,"GOOGL":52535,"MSFT":55552,"META":37256},"2025":{"AMZN":131819,"GOOGL":91447,"MSFT":83094,"META":69691}},"currentTTMCompanyValues":{"AMZN":173028,"GOOGL":132402,"MSFT":115948,"META":89325},"latestQuarterCompanyValues":{"AMZN":54208,"GOOGL":44924,"MSFT":35802,"META":30116},"latestQuarterTotal":165050,"latestQuarterYoYPct":87.03397321125037,"latestQuarterYoYIncrease":76804,"twoYearTTMWindow":{"startPeriod":"2024-Q2","startTotal":177022,"endPeriod":"2026-Q2","endTotal":510703,"multiple":2.8849690998858897,"growthPct":188.49690998858895},"latestCompleteActualsDate":"2026-06-30","latestCompleteReleaseDate":"2026-07-30"}},"prices":{"title":"Selected API price milestones at GPT-4-level MMLU performance","status":"historical selected qualifying offers; not an exhaustive price frontier; not live","threshold":{"benchmark":"MMLU","minimumScore":86,"referenceModel":"GPT-4-0314"},"pricingMethodology":"USD per million blended tokens, 75% input plus 25% output; first-party standard text API rates at announcement/effective date; no cached/batch/free-tier rates. Dates represent documented offered prices, not later quotes attached to old release dates.","observations":[{"date":"2023-03-14","effectiveDate":"2023-03-14","announcementDate":"2023-03-14","model":"GPT-4 (8K)","modelId":"gpt-4-0314","provider":"OpenAI","inputUsdPerMillionTokens":30,"outputUsdPerMillionTokens":60,"blendedUsdPerMillionTokens":37.5,"benchmark":"MMLU","benchmarkThreshold":86,"benchmarkScore":86,"benchmarkScoreSource":"https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends","benchmarkScoreSourceRaw":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/epoch-research/llm-benchmark-efficiency/main/results/default/lowest_price_models_above_previous_frontier/lowest_price_models_data.csv","benchmarkScoreKind":"Source-reported compiled score; not our evaluation","priceSource":"https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-research/","notes":"Launch price; API was initially waitlisted, not universal access.","verifiedOn":"2026-09-13"},{"date":"2023-11-06","effectiveDate":"2023-11-06","announcementDate":"2023-11-06","model":"GPT-4 Turbo","modelId":"gpt-4-1106-preview","provider":"OpenAI","inputUsdPerMillionTokens":10,"outputUsdPerMillionTokens":30,"blendedUsdPerMillionTokens":15,"benchmark":"MMLU","benchmarkThreshold":86,"benchmarkScore":87,"benchmarkScoreSource":"https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends","benchmarkScoreSourceRaw":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/epoch-research/llm-benchmark-efficiency/main/results/default/lowest_price_models_above_previous_frontier/lowest_price_models_data.csv","benchmarkScoreKind":"Source-reported compiled score; not our evaluation","priceSource":"https://openai.com/index/new-models-and-developer-products-announced-at-devday/","notes":"Paid API preview available at launch. Benchmark source calls this GPT-4 Turbo, not pinned snapshot.","verifiedOn":"2026-09-13"},{"date":"2024-05-13","effectiveDate":"2024-05-13","announcementDate":"2024-05-13","model":"GPT-4o","modelId":"gpt-4o-2024-05-13","provider":"OpenAI","inputUsdPerMillionTokens":5,"outputUsdPerMillionTokens":15,"blendedUsdPerMillionTokens":7.5,"benchmark":"MMLU","benchmarkThreshold":86,"benchmarkScore":87,"benchmarkScoreSource":"https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends","benchmarkScoreSourceRaw":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/epoch-research/llm-benchmark-efficiency/main/results/default/lowest_price_models_above_previous_frontier/lowest_price_models_data.csv","benchmarkScoreKind":"Source-reported compiled score; not our evaluation","priceSource":"https://community.openai.com/t/announcing-gpt-4o-in-the-api/744700","notes":"Official developer announcement post dated May 13, 2024; no cached or batch discounts.","verifiedOn":"2026-09-13"},{"date":"2025-02-05","effectiveDate":"2025-02-05","announcementDate":"2025-02-05","model":"Gemini 2.0 Flash","modelId":"gemini-2.0-flash","provider":"Google","inputUsdPerMillionTokens":0.1,"outputUsdPerMillionTokens":0.4,"blendedUsdPerMillionTokens":0.175,"benchmark":"MMLU","benchmarkThreshold":86,"benchmarkScore":88,"benchmarkScoreSource":"https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends","benchmarkScoreSourceRaw":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/epoch-research/llm-benchmark-efficiency/main/results/default/lowest_price_models_above_previous_frontier/lowest_price_models_data.csv","benchmarkScoreKind":"Source-reported compiled score; not our evaluation","priceSource":"https://developers.googleblog.com/en/gemini-2-family-expands/","notes":"General availability date; launch article pricing image visually verified. Text rates only; audio footnote differs.","verifiedOn":"2026-09-13"}],"derived":{"priceReductionFactor":214.2857142857143,"unit":"times lower blended API price","label":"214x lower across selected qualifying offers, March 2023 to February 2025"},"displayRules":["Show dated milestone dots or a clearly labeled illustrative connector, not a continuous measured frontier.","Do not fill or extrapolate beyond February 5, 2025.","Do not title this intelligence per dollar: a threshold-qualified API token price is not a scalar measure of intelligence.","Keep threshold and score provenance visible; benchmark protocols differ and scores are rounded in the compiled source.","Do not divide this series by capex or energy; align dates only for a descriptive comparison, not causation or return on investment.","If keeping broader capex timeline through 2026, visibly end this historical series in 2025 and mark later period no comparable observation."]},"outlook":{"units":"USD millions","asOf":"2026-09-13","lastReportedPeriod":"2026-Q2","nextTwelveMonthsEnd":"2027-06-30","label":"Alphabet guidance + latest reported pace","description":"An illustrative reference path, not consensus or four-company management guidance. Only Alphabet H2 2026 cash spending is directly guidance-derived. Other company figures and all 2027 quarters are pace assumptions.","assumptions":["Alphabet: 2026 cash capex guidance $195–205B minus reported H1 cash PP&E $80.598B gives $114.402–124.402B for H2. Split equally between Q3 and Q4 for this illustration; management did not give that quarterly schedule.","Reference path: Alphabet uses the $200B annual guidance midpoint and $59.701B per future quarter. Amazon, Microsoft and Meta each hold their Q2 2026 reported cash PP&E pace: $54.208B, $35.802B and $30.116B per quarter.","Only $119.402B (16.6%) of the $719.308B reference next-four-quarter total is directly derived from a comparable management guidance range. The rest is pacing assumptions; no 2027 management dollar target is inferred.","Slower/faster sensitivities: Amazon, Microsoft and Meta change by −5%/+5% sequentially each future quarter. Alphabet starts at its 2026 guidance lower/upper endpoint for H2, then changes that H2 quarterly pace by −5%/+5% each quarter in H1 2027.","The −5%/+5% rates are editorial stress assumptions, not statistical confidence bounds, worst/best cases, or probabilities. Actual outcomes can fall outside the band.","The reference aggregate quarterly spend is flat at $179.827B in each future quarter. Its TTM line rises as older, smaller quarters roll off; it does not imply continued quarterly acceleration.","All future chart segments are modeled. Amazon net-cash capex, Microsoft lease-inclusive capex and Meta capex including lease principal are displayed as context, not mechanically added to cash-only actuals.","The outlook covers Q3 2026–Q2 2027: twelve months after the June 2026 reporting cutoff, not twelve months from the September 2026 research date."],"quarterly":[{"period":"2026-Q3","endDate":"2026-09-30","stage":"estimate","low":{"AMZN":51497.6,"MSFT":34011.9,"META":28610.2,"GOOGL":57201},"base":{"AMZN":54208,"MSFT":35802,"META":30116,"GOOGL":59701},"high":{"AMZN":56918.4,"MSFT":37592.1,"META":31621.8,"GOOGL":62201}},{"period":"2026-Q4","endDate":"2026-12-31","stage":"estimate","low":{"AMZN":48922.72,"MSFT":32311.305,"META":27179.69,"GOOGL":57201},"base":{"AMZN":54208,"MSFT":35802,"META":30116,"GOOGL":59701},"high":{"AMZN":59764.32,"MSFT":39471.705,"META":33202.89,"GOOGL":62201}},{"period":"2027-Q1","endDate":"2027-03-31","stage":"scenario","low":{"AMZN":46476.584,"MSFT":30695.73975,"META":25820.7055,"GOOGL":54340.95},"base":{"AMZN":54208,"MSFT":35802,"META":30116,"GOOGL":59701},"high":{"AMZN":62752.536,"MSFT":41445.29025,"META":34863.0345,"GOOGL":65311.05}},{"period":"2027-Q2","endDate":"2027-06-30","stage":"scenario","low":{"AMZN":44152.7548,"MSFT":29160.952762,"META":24529.670225,"GOOGL":51623.9025},"base":{"AMZN":54208,"MSFT":35802,"META":30116,"GOOGL":59701},"high":{"AMZN":65890.1628,"MSFT":43517.554763,"META":36606.186225,"GOOGL":68576.6025}}],"sources":[{"company":"Alphabet","date":"2026-07-22","url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_events/2026/Jul/22/2026_Q2_Earnings_Transcript.pdf","guidance":"$195–205B capex in calendar 2026. Significant increase expected in 2027; no dollar amount disclosed.","conversion":"Comparable cash basis. H2 is guidance minus $80.598B H1 actuals; equal quarterly allocation is our assumption."},{"company":"Amazon","date":"2026-07-30","url":"https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_earnings/2026/q2/Amazon-Quarterly-Earnings-Report-Q2-2026-Full-Call-v1.mp3","guidance":"Approximately $220B cash capex in 2026, increased from about $200B. Company cash-capex convention is net of sales/incentives.","conversion":"Not directly spliced into gross cash PP&E. Model holds Q2 reported purchases at $54.208B per quarter before pace sensitivities."},{"company":"Microsoft","date":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4","guidance":"About $175B calendar-2026 capex; fiscal Q1 2027 above $50B. FY2027 capex expected to grow.","conversion":"Includes finance leases; cash payment timing also differs. The $190B-to-$175B change is classification, not an investment cut. Model holds $35.802B quarterly cash PP&E."},{"company":"Meta","date":"2026-07-29","url":"https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","guidance":"$130–145B calendar-2026 capex, including principal payments on finance leases.","conversion":"Not comparable to cash PP&E alone. No unreported lease bridge is invented; model holds $30.116B quarterly cash PP&E."}]},"capabilityCheckpoint":{"snapshotDate":"2026-09-04","snapshotDateLabel":"Sep 4, 2026","retrievedOn":"2026-09-14","leaderboardUrl":"https://arcprize.org/leaderboard","methodologyUrl":"https://arcprize.org/policy","selectionRule":"Lowest positive reported cost per tested task among displayed CoT or Base LLM evaluations meeting the selected score floor on the same benchmark and Semi-Private split.","timestampMeaning":"Source generation date, not the model release date, individual assessment date or price-effective date.","costMeaning":"Published retail test cost per tested task, not per successful task, electricity use or current API offer.","benchmarks":[{"id":"v1","label":"ARC-AGI-1","datasetId":"v1_Semi_Private","evaluationSplit":"Semi-Private","defaultMinimumScoreFraction":0.95,"generatedAt":"2026-09-04T14:38:06.314Z","dataUrl":"https://arcprize.org/media/data/leaderboard/v1.json","thresholds":[{"minimumScoreFraction":0.8,"model":"DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 (Low)","modelId":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731-low","scoreFraction":0.84,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.0117880906,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/deepseek-v4-flash-0731"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.9,"model":"Gemini 3.7 Flash (Medium)","modelId":"google-gemini-3-7-flash-medium","scoreFraction":0.9116666666666666,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.0605031675,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/google-gemini-3-7-flash"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.95,"model":"Gemini 3.7 Flash (High)","modelId":"google-gemini-3-7-flash-high","scoreFraction":0.955,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.12013233,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/google-gemini-3-7-flash"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.98,"model":"GPT-6 Astra (High)","modelId":"openai-gpt-6-astra-high","scoreFraction":0.985,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.2837032,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra"}],"featuredModels":[{"model":"GPT-6 Astra (Max)","modelId":"openai-gpt-6-astra-max","modelGroup":"openai-gpt-6-astra","modelType":"CoT","modelReleaseDate":"2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z","scoreFraction":0.975,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.4328827000000001,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra","announcementDate":"2026-09-03","announcementSource":"https://openai.com/index/safety-overview-gpt-6-astra/","dateNote":"ARC lists September 2 as model_release_date. OpenAI announced Astra September 3 with phased rollout. The reason for the one-day source discrepancy is not verified."},{"model":"Claude Fable 5.1 (Max)","modelId":"anthropic-claude-fable-5-1-max","modelGroup":"anthropic-claude-fable-5-1","modelType":"CoT","modelReleaseDate":"2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z","scoreFraction":0.975,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":1.3997611,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/anthropic-claude-fable-5-1","announcementDate":"2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z"},{"model":"Claude Fable 5 (Max)","modelId":"anthropic-claude-fable-5-max","modelGroup":"anthropic-claude-fable-5","modelType":"CoT","modelReleaseDate":"2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z","scoreFraction":0.985,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":2.1101577000000007,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/anthropic-claude-fable-5","announcementDate":"2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z"}]},{"id":"v2","label":"ARC-AGI-2","datasetId":"v2_Semi_Private","evaluationSplit":"Semi-Private","defaultMinimumScoreFraction":0.75,"generatedAt":"2026-09-04T14:38:06.319Z","dataUrl":"https://arcprize.org/media/data/leaderboard/v2.json","thresholds":[{"minimumScoreFraction":0.3,"model":"DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 (Low)","modelId":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731-low","scoreFraction":0.4597222222222222,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.0206284715,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/deepseek-v4-flash-0731"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.5,"model":"DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 (Max)","modelId":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731-max","scoreFraction":0.6138888888888888,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.04163034416666667,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/deepseek-v4-flash-0731"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.75,"model":"Gemini 3.7 Flash (High)","modelId":"google-gemini-3-7-flash-high","scoreFraction":0.8458333333333333,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.24944951875,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/google-gemini-3-7-flash"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.9,"model":"GPT-6 Astra (Medium)","modelId":"openai-gpt-6-astra-medium","scoreFraction":0.9208333333333332,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":0.4800926666666667,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra"},{"minimumScoreFraction":0.95,"model":"GPT-6 Astra (Max)","modelId":"openai-gpt-6-astra-max","scoreFraction":0.95,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":1.1194680833333337,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra"}],"featuredModels":[{"model":"GPT-6 Astra (Max)","modelId":"openai-gpt-6-astra-max","modelGroup":"openai-gpt-6-astra","modelType":"CoT","modelReleaseDate":"2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z","scoreFraction":0.95,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":1.1194680833333337,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/openai-gpt-6-astra","announcementDate":"2026-09-03","announcementSource":"https://openai.com/index/safety-overview-gpt-6-astra/","dateNote":"ARC lists September 2 as model_release_date. OpenAI announced Astra September 3 with phased rollout. The reason for the one-day source discrepancy is not verified."},{"model":"Claude Fable 5.1 (Max)","modelId":"anthropic-claude-fable-5-1-max","modelGroup":"anthropic-claude-fable-5-1","modelType":"CoT","modelReleaseDate":"2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z","scoreFraction":0.9,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":4.492348833333334,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/anthropic-claude-fable-5-1","announcementDate":"2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z"},{"model":"Claude Fable 5 (Max)","modelId":"anthropic-claude-fable-5-max","modelGroup":"anthropic-claude-fable-5","modelType":"CoT","modelReleaseDate":"2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z","scoreFraction":0.8916666666666667,"retailCostPerTaskUsd":5.449076000000001,"resultsUrl":"https://arcprize.org/results/anthropic-claude-fable-5","announcementDate":"2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z"}]}],"retrievedOnLabel":"Sep 14, 2026","defaultBenchmarkId":"v2","featuredSelectionRule":"GPT-6 Astra, Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Fable 5 at each provider’s published Max reasoning effort on the selected benchmark’s Semi-Private split. Max is a configuration label, not a matched compute budget or guaranteed best score."},"capabilityFrontier":{"asOf":"2026-09-14","coverageClaim":"Maximum over this disclosed, selected verified catalog, not the global cheapest provider or exhaustive capability frontier. A historical attained-capability record, not continuous API availability.","tokenBasket":{"inputShare":0.75,"outputShare":0.25,"inputKind":"uncached text","outputKind":"all billed generated tokens including reasoning","priceTier":"standard on-demand; no caching, batch, subscription, free-tier, promotional or enterprise commitments unless a record explicitly says so","contextRule":"short-context published tier; prompts below128K. This is per-million unit pricing aggregated over requests, not a one-million-context request.","formula":".75 * inputUsdPerMillion + .25 * outputUsdPerMillion","notTaskCost":"This price ceiling does not fix tokens needed per task. ECI may reflect high-effort tests with many reasoning tokens; it does not claim the measured quality can solve one task for$1 or for a fixed output length."},"eci":{"vintage":"2026-09-14","source":"https://epoch.ai/eci","dataUrl":"https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv","methodology":"https://epoch.ai/data/eci-documentation/methodology","sha256":"24f1f27602847d0caba3f73cb2a03c0e5222c12511fd1c55db932e4b221a5830","rows":266,"unit":"ECI points","ciLevel":0.9,"interpretation":"One retrospectively estimated composite-index vintage, refreshed in full from Epoch AI on September 14, 2026. Index point differences are meaningful; ratios or percentage-intelligence gains are not. All historical and current models use this same vintage.","notContemporaneousKnowledge":"Offer dates are historical availability/pricing dates; ECI values are assessed in the pinned September 14, 2026 vintage, not scores people necessarily knew at launch.","vintageEvidence":"Official ECI page Downloads section explicitly says CSV Updated Sep. 14, 2026","license":"CC BY; source: Epoch AI"},"dateRules":{"sharedWindowStart":"2024-06-30","sharedWindowEnd":"2027-06-30","spendingLastReported":"2026-06-30","lastBudgetMilestone":"2026-07-30","outlook":"No capability forecast. Each observed curve stops at its last verified offer or model release; future 2027 space is blank. The two curves have separate last-observed dates.","lastFrontierMilestone":"2026-09-03"},"allPriceLineNote":"Highest ECI point estimate among all 266 source model observations, irrespective of price or API access. Some models may have restricted access. This is broader than the priced catalog, so a gap is illustrative, not an estimate of a complete market price frontier. Point-estimate ranks do not imply statistically certain or universal superiority; the leading models have overlapping 90% confidence intervals.","baselinePriceCaveat":"Exact May30 price-page archival receipt was not retrieved; original paid-launch rate is reconstructed from Google billing launch and official before/after tariff. For a strictly contemporaneous single-receipt timeline, exclude this baseline and start July18; do not relabel the August cut as a May launch price.","ceiling":1,"offers":[{"id":"gemini-1.5-flash-may-2024-2024-05-30","model":"Gemini 1.5 Flash (May 2024)","label":"Gemini 1.5 Flash (May 2024)","provider":"Google DeepMind","eciSourceModel":"Gemini 1.5 Flash (May 2024)","sourceReleaseDate":"2024-05-23","offerDate":"2024-05-30","eci":122.57,"lower90":117.47,"upper90":124.66,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.35,"outputUsdPerMillion":1.05,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.525,"priceSources":["https://developers.googleblog.com/en/gemini-15-pro-and-15-flash-now-available/","https://developers.googleblog.com/gemini-15-flash-updates-google-ai-studio-gemini-api/","https://storage.googleapis.com/gweb-developer-goog-blog-assets/images/Gemma_BlogGraphs_01_202408808_v3.original.png"],"priceEvidence":"dated-billing-launch-plus-official-retrospective-pre-cut-tariff","joinNote":"Google opened paid Gemini API billing May 30. Its August 8 official before/after table explicitly preserves the earlier .35/1.05 tariff; the new .075/.30 price begins August 12. Epoch names the original May checkpoint and dates its release May 23. This joins the original paid launch to the preserved pre-cut tariff, not the August price to the May release.","apiModel":"gemini-1.5-flash-001","currentAvailabilityVerified":false,"dateEvidenceCaveat":"Exact May30 price-page archival receipt was not retrieved; original paid-launch rate is reconstructed from Google billing launch and official before/after tariff. For a strictly contemporaneous single-receipt timeline, exclude this baseline and start July18; do not relabel the August cut as a May launch price."},{"id":"gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18","model":"GPT-4o mini","label":"GPT-4o mini","provider":"OpenAI","eciSourceModel":"GPT-4o mini","sourceReleaseDate":"2024-07-18","offerDate":"2024-07-18","eci":126.56,"lower90":121.04,"upper90":128.51,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.15,"outputUsdPerMillion":0.6,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.2625,"priceSources":["https://openai.com/index/gpt-4o-mini-advancing-cost-efficient-intelligence/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","joinNote":"Dated release identifies the API model and .15 input/.60 output rates. ECI row is GPT-4o mini, not the larger GPT-4o.","apiModel":"gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18","currentAvailabilityVerified":false},{"id":"gemini-1.5-flash-sep-2024-2024-09-24","model":"Gemini 1.5 Flash (Sep 2024)","label":"Gemini 1.5 Flash (Sep 2024)","provider":"Google DeepMind","eciSourceModel":"Gemini 1.5 Flash (Sep 2024)","sourceReleaseDate":"2024-09-24","offerDate":"2024-09-24","eci":129.36,"lower90":124.24,"upper90":131.19,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.075,"outputUsdPerMillion":0.3,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.13125,"priceSources":["https://developers.googleblog.com/updated-gemini-models-reduced-15-pro-pricing-increased-rate-limits-and-more/","https://developers.googleblog.com/gemini-15-flash-updates-google-ai-studio-gemini-api/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-checkpoint-launch-plus-existing-published-family-tariff","joinNote":"September24 launch explicitly identifies gemini-1.5-flash-002; the already-effective August12 Flash tariff is .075/.30 for prompts below128K. The much less capable May model is not assigned the September ECI score.","apiModel":"gemini-1.5-flash-002","currentAvailabilityVerified":false},{"id":"deepseek-r1-2025-01-20","model":"DeepSeek-R1","label":"DeepSeek-R1","provider":"DeepSeek","eciSourceModel":"DeepSeek-R1","sourceReleaseDate":"2025-01-20","offerDate":"2025-01-20","eci":138.97,"lower90":136.9,"upper90":140.47,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.55,"outputUsdPerMillion":2.19,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.96,"priceSources":["https://deepseek.com/en/news/deepseek-r1/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","joinNote":"Original January R1 announcement explicitly states cache-miss .55 input and2.19 output. Do not use later R1-0528 score or current deepseek-reasoner alias.","apiModel":"deepseek-reasoner (January 2025 R1 checkpoint)","currentAvailabilityVerified":false},{"id":"gemini-2.5-flash-may-2025-2025-05-20","model":"Gemini 2.5 Flash (May 2025)","label":"Gemini 2.5 Flash (May 2025)","provider":"Google DeepMind","eciSourceModel":"Gemini 2.5 Flash (May 2025)","sourceReleaseDate":"2025-05-20","offerDate":"2025-05-20","eci":141.54,"lower90":139.66,"upper90":143.04,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.15,"outputUsdPerMillion":3.5,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.9875,"priceSources":["https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/changelog","https://developers.googleblog.com/en/gemini-2-5-thinking-model-updates/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-checkpoint-launch-plus-official-retrospective-preview-tariff","joinNote":"Official changelog identifies the 05-20 preview on May 20. The June 17 announcement preserves its previous .15/3.50 thinking tariff and states GA has no model changes from 05-20. Join the exact May checkpoint in the pinned Epoch vintage, not the June row, and use thinking output pricing rather than the cheaper non-thinking tariff.","apiModel":"gemini-2.5-flash-preview-05-20","currentAvailabilityVerified":false},{"id":"gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07","model":"GPT-5 mini","label":"GPT-5 mini","provider":"OpenAI","eciSourceModel":"GPT-5 mini","sourceReleaseDate":"2025-08-07","offerDate":"2025-08-07","eci":145.52,"lower90":143.6,"upper90":147.15,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.25,"outputUsdPerMillion":2,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.6875,"priceSources":["https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-for-developers/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","joinNote":"Dated announcement lists GPT-5 mini .25 input/2 output. ECI row is the mini model, not GPT-5 or GPT-5 chat.","apiModel":"gpt-5-mini","currentAvailabilityVerified":false},{"id":"minimax-m2.5-2026-02-12","model":"MiniMax-M2.5","label":"MiniMax M2.5 · Lightning serving","provider":"MiniMax","eciSourceModel":"MiniMax-M2.5","sourceReleaseDate":"2026-02-12","offerDate":"2026-02-12","eci":146.51,"lower90":138.67,"upper90":147.85,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.3,"outputUsdPerMillion":2.4,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.825,"priceSources":["https://www.minimax.io/news/minimax-m25","https://huggingface.co/MiniMaxAI/MiniMax-M2.5"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","joinNote":"Use explicitly priced Lightning serving at .30/2.40. Provider states M2.5 andM2.5-Lightning are identical in capability and differ in speed; this supports the same M2.5 ECI. Do not infer the ambiguous half-price standard input rate.","apiModel":"MiniMax-M2.5-Lightning","currentAvailabilityVerified":false,"capabilityVariantEquivalence":"Provider explicitly says M2.5 and Lightning are identical in capability."},{"id":"gpt-5.6-luna-2026-07-30","model":"GPT-5.6 Luna","label":"GPT-5.6 Luna · July30 price cut","provider":"OpenAI","eciSourceModel":"GPT-5.6 Luna","sourceReleaseDate":"2026-07-09","offerDate":"2026-07-30","eci":156.31,"lower90":154.06,"upper90":158.86,"inputUsdPerMillion":0.2,"outputUsdPerMillion":1.2,"blendedUsdPerMillion":0.45,"priceSources":["https://openai.com/index/advancing-the-price-performance-frontier-with-gpt-5-6/","https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-6/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","joinNote":"The July 30 announcement gives effective .20/1.20 rates. The model release is July 9; this milestone is dated July 30 because the later cut cannot be backdated to release. It is a serving-efficiency price cut, not a newly substituted model score.","apiModel":"gpt-5.6-luna","currentAvailabilityVerified":true,"currentOfferObservationDate":"2026-09-13"}],"frontier":[{"model":"GPT-4o (May 2024)","label":"GPT-4o (May 2024)","date":"2024-05-13","eci":128.97,"lower90":125.32,"upper90":131.55,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"Claude 3.5 Sonnet","label":"Claude 3.5 Sonnet","date":"2024-06-20","eci":130,"lower90":null,"upper90":null,"provider":"Anthropic"},{"model":"o1-mini","label":"o1-mini","date":"2024-09-12","eci":135.82,"lower90":132.6,"upper90":137.28,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"o1","label":"o1","date":"2024-12-17","eci":141.86,"lower90":140.15,"upper90":143.11,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"Gemini 2.5 Pro (Mar 2025)","label":"Gemini 2.5 Pro (Mar 2025)","date":"2025-03-31","eci":144.16,"lower90":142.19,"upper90":147.04,"provider":"Google DeepMind"},{"model":"o3","label":"o3","date":"2025-04-16","eci":146.91,"lower90":145.23,"upper90":148.66,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"o3-pro","label":"o3-pro","date":"2025-06-10","eci":147.45,"lower90":145.85,"upper90":149.7,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"GPT-5","label":"GPT-5","date":"2025-08-07","eci":150,"lower90":null,"upper90":null,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"GPT-5 Pro","label":"GPT-5 Pro","date":"2025-10-07","eci":150.29,"lower90":148.83,"upper90":152.9,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"Gemini 3 Pro","label":"Gemini 3 Pro","date":"2025-11-18","eci":153,"lower90":151.05,"upper90":155.08,"provider":"Google DeepMind"},{"model":"GPT-5.2 Pro","label":"GPT-5.2 Pro","date":"2025-12-11","eci":155.38,"lower90":153.18,"upper90":158.22,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"GPT-5.3 Codex","label":"GPT-5.3 Codex","date":"2026-02-05","eci":156.58,"lower90":153.91,"upper90":159.73,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"GPT-5.4 Pro","label":"GPT-5.4 Pro","date":"2026-03-05","eci":158.95,"lower90":156.73,"upper90":161.7,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"GPT-5.5 Pro","label":"GPT-5.5 Pro","date":"2026-04-23","eci":162.25,"lower90":159.32,"upper90":165.76,"provider":"OpenAI"},{"model":"Claude Fable 5","label":"Claude Fable 5","date":"2026-06-09","eci":163.27,"lower90":160.54,"upper90":167.1,"provider":"Anthropic"},{"model":"Claude Fable 5.1","label":"Claude Fable 5.1","date":"2026-09-01","eci":164.47,"lower90":161.36,"upper90":168.28,"provider":"Anthropic"},{"model":"GPT-6 Astra","label":"GPT-6 Astra","date":"2026-09-03","eci":166.31,"lower90":163,"upper90":171.88,"provider":"OpenAI"}],"flagshipReference":{"id":"gpt-5-2025-08-07","model":"GPT-5","label":"GPT-5","provider":"OpenAI","eciSourceModel":"GPT-5","sourceReleaseDate":"2025-08-07","offerDate":"2025-08-07","eci":150,"lower90":null,"upper90":null,"inputUsdPerMillion":1.25,"outputUsdPerMillion":10,"blendedUsdPerMillion":3.4375,"priceSources":["https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-for-developers/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","joinNote":"Dated announcement lists main reasoning GPT-5 rate1.25/10. Match mainGPT-5 ECI150; notGPT-5 Pro.","apiModel":"gpt-5","currentAvailabilityVerified":false},"premiumModels":[{"model":"Claude Fable 5","label":"Claude Fable 5","date":"2026-06-09","eci":163.27,"lower90":160.54,"upper90":167.1,"provider":"Anthropic","eciSourceModel":"Claude Fable 5","sourceReleaseDate":"2026-06-09","offerDate":"2026-06-09","apiModel":"claude-fable-5","inputUsdPerMillion":10,"outputUsdPerMillion":50,"blendedUsdPerMillion":20,"priceSources":["https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","epochSource":"https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv","currentOfferObservationDate":"2026-09-14","id":"claude-fable-5-2026-06-09","sourceUrl":"https://epoch.ai/models/claude-fable-5","currentAvailabilityVerified":false,"priceObservationDate":"2026-09-14","eciVintage":"2026-09-14","joinNote":"Fable 5 launched June 9 at $10 input/$50 output. Its historical attained-capability record remains on the chart; access was suspended June 12 and restored July 1, so this does not claim continuous API availability. Use public Epoch ECI for Fable 5, not the separately safeguarded Mythos model or Anthropic internal ECI."},{"model":"Claude Fable 5.1","label":"Claude Fable 5.1","date":"2026-09-01","eci":164.47,"lower90":161.36,"upper90":168.28,"provider":"Anthropic","eciSourceModel":"Claude Fable 5.1","sourceReleaseDate":"2026-09-01","offerDate":"2026-09-01","apiModel":"claude-fable-5-1","inputUsdPerMillion":10,"outputUsdPerMillion":50,"blendedUsdPerMillion":20,"priceSources":["https://www.anthropic.com/claude-fable-and-mythos-5-1","https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/models/fable-5-1/overview"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","epochSource":"https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv","currentOfferObservationDate":"2026-09-14","id":"claude-fable-5-1-2026-09-01","sourceUrl":"https://epoch.ai/models/claude-fable-5-1","currentAvailabilityVerified":true,"priceObservationDate":"2026-09-14","eciVintage":"2026-09-14","joinNote":"September 1 release keeps the uncached $10 input/$50 output tariff. Its cache-read discount does not enter our uncached 75/25 basket. Use public Epoch ECI for Fable 5.1, not Mythos 5.1 or Anthropic internal ECI."},{"model":"GPT-6 Astra","label":"GPT-6 Astra","date":"2026-09-03","eci":166.31,"lower90":163,"upper90":171.88,"provider":"OpenAI","eciSourceModel":"GPT-6 Astra","sourceReleaseDate":"2026-09-03","offerDate":"2026-09-03","apiModel":"gpt-6-astra","inputUsdPerMillion":10,"outputUsdPerMillion":50,"blendedUsdPerMillion":20,"priceSources":["https://openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra/","https://openai.com/index/safety-overview-gpt-6-astra/"],"priceEvidence":"dated-primary-announcement","epochSource":"https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv","currentOfferObservationDate":"2026-09-14","id":"gpt-6-astra-2026-09-03","sourceUrl":"https://epoch.ai/models/gpt-6-astra","currentAvailabilityVerified":true,"priceObservationDate":"2026-09-14","eciVintage":"2026-09-14","joinNote":"September 3 GPT-6 Astra release, standard short-context uncached API tariff $10 input/$50 output. Public Epoch ECI reflects the benchmark collection across reasoning settings, not guaranteed quality for a fixed token count or task budget.","availabilityNote":"September 3 is the official announcement date, with phased API rollout; this date does not guarantee universal API access."}],"premiumModelsNote":"These selected current frontier releases are shown separately from the affordable catalog. Each costs $20 per million tokens in the same 75% uncached-input / 25% billed-output basket, above the $1 ceiling. Prices do not measure tokens or cost needed to finish a task."},"demand":{"primaryUrl":"https://ramp.com/data/ai-index","methodologyUrl":"https://ramp.com/data/ai-index#methodology","vintage":"Page retrieved September 13, 2026; latest observed month August 2026. All history taken from the same current page payload, not stitched across earlier press reports.","unit":"percent of businesses in Ramp-observed cohort","cohortAndMethod":{"sampleDescription":"Current page describes more than 70,000 American businesses using Ramp corporate card and bill-pay data. This is a source sample description, not an assertion that exactly 70,000 firms contribute to each month.","adoptionDefinition":"A business qualifies in a month when Ramp observes a positive payment for an identified AI product or service. Merchant names and receipt/bill line items identify qualifying spend; current definitions include corporate card, invoice, and ACH transactions.","coverageLimits":["This is Ramp-observed paid adoption, not a nationally representative estimate of all U.S. businesses.","Free tools and work use through personal accounts can be missed.","The reviewed methodology does not establish a fixed panel or weights that make it population-representative; do not claim either.","Transactions and historical observations can be revised; archive each source vintage."]},"adoptionSeries":[{"month":"2023-01","periodEnd":"2023-01-31","adoptionPct":7.46,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-02","periodEnd":"2023-02-28","adoptionPct":12.06,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":4.6,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-03","periodEnd":"2023-03-31","adoptionPct":20.91,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":8.85,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-04","periodEnd":"2023-04-30","adoptionPct":24.4,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":3.49,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-05","periodEnd":"2023-05-31","adoptionPct":26.1,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.7,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-06","periodEnd":"2023-06-30","adoptionPct":25.66,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":-0.44,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-07","periodEnd":"2023-07-31","adoptionPct":27.14,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.48,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-08","periodEnd":"2023-08-31","adoptionPct":27.89,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.75,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-09","periodEnd":"2023-09-30","adoptionPct":29.03,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.15,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-10","periodEnd":"2023-10-31","adoptionPct":29.65,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.62,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-11","periodEnd":"2023-11-30","adoptionPct":30.47,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.82,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2023-12","periodEnd":"2023-12-31","adoptionPct":31.68,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.21,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":null},{"month":"2024-01","periodEnd":"2024-01-31","adoptionPct":32.51,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.83,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":25.06},{"month":"2024-02","periodEnd":"2024-02-29","adoptionPct":32.73,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.22,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":20.68},{"month":"2024-03","periodEnd":"2024-03-31","adoptionPct":33.35,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.61,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":12.44},{"month":"2024-04","periodEnd":"2024-04-30","adoptionPct":33.12,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":-0.23,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":8.72},{"month":"2024-05","periodEnd":"2024-05-31","adoptionPct":33.22,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.1,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":7.13},{"month":"2024-06","periodEnd":"2024-06-30","adoptionPct":33.47,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.25,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":7.81},{"month":"2024-07","periodEnd":"2024-07-31","adoptionPct":33.88,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.42,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":6.75},{"month":"2024-08","periodEnd":"2024-08-31","adoptionPct":34.21,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.33,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":6.33},{"month":"2024-09","periodEnd":"2024-09-30","adoptionPct":35.21,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.99,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":6.17},{"month":"2024-10","periodEnd":"2024-10-31","adoptionPct":35.83,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.62,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":6.18},{"month":"2024-11","periodEnd":"2024-11-30","adoptionPct":36.36,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.53,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":5.89},{"month":"2024-12","periodEnd":"2024-12-31","adoptionPct":36.66,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.3,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":4.97},{"month":"2025-01","periodEnd":"2025-01-31","adoptionPct":37.73,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.08,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":5.22},{"month":"2025-02","periodEnd":"2025-02-28","adoptionPct":38.67,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.94,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":5.94},{"month":"2025-03","periodEnd":"2025-03-31","adoptionPct":39.17,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.5,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":5.83},{"month":"2025-04","periodEnd":"2025-04-30","adoptionPct":40.77,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.6,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":7.65},{"month":"2025-05","periodEnd":"2025-05-31","adoptionPct":41.9,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.13,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":8.68},{"month":"2025-06","periodEnd":"2025-06-30","adoptionPct":42.72,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.81,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":9.25},{"month":"2025-07","periodEnd":"2025-07-31","adoptionPct":44.08,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.36,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":10.2},{"month":"2025-08","periodEnd":"2025-08-31","adoptionPct":44.98,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.9,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":10.77},{"month":"2025-09","periodEnd":"2025-09-30","adoptionPct":45.19,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.21,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":9.98},{"month":"2025-10","periodEnd":"2025-10-31","adoptionPct":45.1,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":-0.09,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":9.27},{"month":"2025-11","periodEnd":"2025-11-30","adoptionPct":45.94,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.84,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":9.58},{"month":"2025-12","periodEnd":"2025-12-31","adoptionPct":45.92,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":-0.02,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":9.27},{"month":"2026-01","periodEnd":"2026-01-31","adoptionPct":46.96,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.04,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":9.23},{"month":"2026-02","periodEnd":"2026-02-28","adoptionPct":49.1,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":2.14,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":10.43},{"month":"2026-03","periodEnd":"2026-03-31","adoptionPct":51.26,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":2.17,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":12.09},{"month":"2026-04","periodEnd":"2026-04-30","adoptionPct":52.98,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.71,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":12.2},{"month":"2026-05","periodEnd":"2026-05-31","adoptionPct":54.17,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":1.19,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":12.26},{"month":"2026-06","periodEnd":"2026-06-30","adoptionPct":54.95,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.78,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":12.23},{"month":"2026-07","periodEnd":"2026-07-31","adoptionPct":55.71,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.76,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":11.63},{"month":"2026-08","periodEnd":"2026-08-31","adoptionPct":56.13,"monthOverMonthPercentagePoints":0.42,"yearOverYearPercentagePoints":11.15}],"secondarySnapshot":{"metric":"Median monthly AI spend per employee among top 1% of firms","sourceUrl":"https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026","publishedAt":"2026-09-09","units":"USD per employee per month","observations":[{"month":"2026-07","value":7975.84},{"month":"2026-08","value":7205.13}],"changePct":-9.66,"sourceRounding":"Article states $7,976 to $7,205 and -9.7%; unrounded values are the same-vintage public chart payload.","caveats":["Small top-1% sample is volatile.","July was revised up from about $7,400 after more transactions arrived.","Not the median firm and not total economy-wide AI spending."]}},"taskHorizons":{"id":"metr-time-horizon-v1.1-may08-2026","title":"From minutes to hours of task difficulty","lastUpdated":"2026-05-08","retrievedAt":"2026-09-13","source":"https://metr.org/time-horizons/","dataSource":"https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml","methodologySource":"https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/","paper":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.14499","codeSource":"https://github.com/METR/eval-analysis-public","benchmarkVersion":"METR-Horizon-v1.1","sourceSha256":"aae31902b0519a4da73e16643915e5e8aca13cd3315c3aac893ce3d6dfe92ad9","sourceVersions":{"long_tasks_version":"799cc9c4b4483a93fc3445623a49ea1bd74fdeb2","swaa_version":"f6cc84052e2a79dd540766c8a1b15ff399696371"},"unit":"Human-expert task-completion minutes at the selected predicted success probability","defaultSuccessProbability":0.8,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"confidenceMethod":"Source bootstrap intervals over task families, tasks and runs.","recommendedAxis":"Linear minutes/hours, with source 95% confidence intervals, optional log toggle. Draw only real model observations or record-setting points; no forecast.","asOfMeaning":"May 8, 2026 is source update date; dates on the chart are model release dates. This snapshot is not a real-time availability or price history.","reliabilityBoundaryMinutes":960,"points":[{"id":"claude_3_5_sonnet_20240620_inspect","model":"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Jun 2024)","date":"2024-06-20","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":11.395377,"p50CiLowMinutes":5.489734,"p50CiHighMinutes":22.384214,"p80Minutes":1.671757,"p80CiLowMinutes":0.57927,"p80CiHighMinutes":4.573519,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","metr_agents/react"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"o1_preview","model":"o1-preview","date":"2024-09-12","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":20.326586,"p50CiLowMinutes":11.716193,"p50CiHighMinutes":33.379877,"p80Minutes":4.420545,"p80CiLowMinutes":2.012646,"p80CiHighMinutes":8.912444,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["duet",null],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"claude_3_5_sonnet_20241022_inspect","model":"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024)","date":"2024-10-22","dateMeaning":"Model release date; 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retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":11.395377,"p50CiLowMinutes":5.489734,"p50CiHighMinutes":22.384214,"p80Minutes":1.671757,"p80CiLowMinutes":0.57927,"p80CiHighMinutes":4.573519,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","metr_agents/react"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"o1_preview","model":"o1-preview","date":"2024-09-12","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":20.326586,"p50CiLowMinutes":11.716193,"p50CiHighMinutes":33.379877,"p80Minutes":4.420545,"p80CiLowMinutes":2.012646,"p80CiHighMinutes":8.912444,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["duet",null],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"o1_inspect","model":"o1","date":"2024-12-05","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":38.831588,"p50CiLowMinutes":21.164512,"p50CiHighMinutes":64.95249,"p80Minutes":7.090121,"p80CiLowMinutes":3.036033,"p80CiHighMinutes":16.640636,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","triframe_inspect/triframe_agent"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"claude_3_7_sonnet_inspect","model":"Claude 3.7 Sonnet","date":"2025-02-24","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":60.388937,"p50CiLowMinutes":33.006168,"p50CiHighMinutes":104.226017,"p80Minutes":12.09179,"p80CiLowMinutes":4.575608,"p80CiHighMinutes":28.889879,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","metr_agents/react"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"o3_inspect","model":"o3","date":"2025-04-16","dateMeaning":"Model release date; 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retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":224.325884,"p50CiLowMinutes":139.565157,"p50CiHighMinutes":379.235434,"p80Minutes":54.142849,"p80CiLowMinutes":25.650451,"p80CiHighMinutes":103.295501,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","metr_agents/react"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"gpt_5_2","model":"GPT-5.2","date":"2025-12-11","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":352.249302,"p50CiLowMinutes":198.067494,"p50CiHighMinutes":815.177445,"p80Minutes":66.002649,"p80CiLowMinutes":31.665111,"p80CiHighMinutes":131.730719,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","triframe_inspect/triframe_agent"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"claude_opus_4_6_inspect","model":"Claude Opus 4.6","date":"2026-02-05","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":718.80683,"p50CiLowMinutes":316.685725,"p50CiHighMinutes":3633.786163,"p80Minutes":69.874587,"p80CiLowMinutes":27.026521,"p80CiHighMinutes":170.437873,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":true,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","metr_agents/react"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true},{"id":"gemini_3_1_pro","model":"Gemini 3.1 Pro","date":"2026-02-19","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":384.147435,"p50CiLowMinutes":233.50073,"p50CiHighMinutes":694.750898,"p80Minutes":89.801503,"p80CiLowMinutes":52.025934,"p80CiHighMinutes":158.618017,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":false,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":false,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":false,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,triframe_inspect/triframe_agent","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","triframe_inspect/triframe_agent"],"sourceIsSotaP50":false},{"id":"claude_mythos_preview_early_inspect","model":"Claude Mythos Preview (early)","date":"2026-04-07","dateMeaning":"Model release date; retrospectively evaluated with the pinned TH1.1 vintage, not date this result became known.","p50Minutes":1044.780145,"p50CiLowMinutes":508.876789,"p50CiHighMinutes":3304.261235,"p80Minutes":185.911829,"p80CiLowMinutes":97.30292,"p80CiHighMinutes":398.514614,"confidenceLevel":0.95,"p50AboveReliableRange":true,"p50UpperCiAboveReliableRange":true,"p80AboveReliableRange":false,"earlyPreview":true,"scaffolds":["mtb/start_metr_task,metr_agents/react","ai_rd_fix_embedding/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","re_bench_common/init_solver,use_tools,metr_agents/react","metr_tasks_swaa/init_solver,generate","metr_agents/react"],"sourceIsSotaP50":true}],"headline":{"firstModel":"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Jun 2024)","firstDate":"2024-06-20","firstP80Minutes":1.671757,"latestModel":"Claude Mythos Preview (early)","latestDate":"2026-04-07","latestP80Minutes":185.911829,"latestP80Hours":3.0985304833333336,"latestP80CiHours":[1.6217153333333334,6.641910233333333],"p80EndpointMultiple":111.20744761349886,"display":"1.7 minutes → 3.1 hours at 80% predicted success","latestIsEarlyPreview":true},"limits":["Task duration describes human-expert task difficulty, not how long an AI runs autonomously or actual time saved.","Primarily self-contained software engineering, machine learning and cybersecurity tasks with clear automatically scored outcomes; not all work or all jobs.","80% is a fitted predicted success probability across the task distribution, not a guarantee for every task.","Human experts have low task context; some durations are estimates, and measured contractor times may exceed those of workers already familiar with the project.","TH1.1 has 228 tasks; at its Jan 29 release only 5 of 31 long (8h+) tasks had measured human baseline times.","METR warns horizons above 16 hours are unreliable with this task suite. Mythos early p50=17.4h crosses that boundary; do not market it as a precise measured 17-hour result. Its p80=3.10h does not cross the boundary.","Intervals are wide; Opus 4.6 p50 upper interval extends beyond 16h even though central estimate is about 12h.","All values come from the May 8 TH1.1 source, after the March 3 regularization correction. Do not substitute older Jan release measurements.","Model coverage is selective and incomplete; no inferred points for untested 2026 models and no carry-forward claim of September performance.","o1-preview used TH1.1 tasks on the earlier Vivaria infrastructure; other inspected points use source-provided agent setups."],"license":{"status":"No explicit reusable-data license located in source page or linked repository.","evidence":"METR page footer says All rights reserved; repository README refers to LICENSE but root contents have no LICENSE and GitHub license API returned 404 on 2026-09-13.","attribution":"Source: METR, Task-Completion Time Horizons, TH1.1 (updated May 8, 2026). Chart and frontier selection by TheBRRR.","implementationNote":"Use attributed factual measurements and original chart; do not label the raw dataset CC-BY/MIT or redistribute METR code/images under an assumed license."}},"computeContext":{"title":"Estimated AI compute stock growth","display":"3.4× / year","annualMultiple":3.4,"annualMultipleCi90":[3.2,3.7],"doublingMonths":6.8,"source":"https://epoch.ai/trends","supportingMethodology":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai-chip-sales-documentation/methodology","sourcePageDisplayedUpdate":"2026-02-05","retrievedAt":"2026-09-13","fittedPeriodStart":"2022","fittedPeriodEnd":null,"fittedPeriodNote":"Trends page says since 2022 but does not provide the fit end date alongside this card. Do not invent a precise end or September run rate.","kind":"Published fitted trend estimate; context card/link only, not independently reconstructed installed-capacity series.","limits":["Estimated chip stock based on shipments/revenues, not measured energized capacity, utilization or intelligence.","Underlying Jan 9 ai-chip-production article reports a different 3.3x/year fit to quarterly chips sold, CI 2.7–4.1x; do not splice that vintage or shipment-flow CI onto the 3.4x trends stock card.","No forward projection and no synthetic monthly observations."],"license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","attribution":"Source: Epoch AI, Trends in Artificial Intelligence (accessed Sep 13, 2026)."}},"funding":{"verifiedAt":"2026-09-13","units":"USD millions","basis":"Company-wide GAAP operating cash flow and reported cash PP&E, aligned to the same trailing 12 months ending June 30. Residual is OCF minus cash PP&E; not universal reported FCF, AI ROI, discretionary cash or complete funding needs.","sources":{"AMZN_2026Q2":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm","publishedDate":"2026-07-30","locator":"Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, page 3; direct twelve-month June columns","operatingCashFlow":{"2025-06-30":121137,"2026-06-30":161403},"cashPPE":{"2025-06-30":107656,"2026-06-30":173028},"notes":"PP&E purchases before proceeds from sales/incentives. Does not equal company reported free cash flow capex basis."},"MSFT_FY26Q4":{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast","publishedDate":"2026-07-29","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, twelve months ended June 30 2026 and 2025","operatingCashFlow":{"2025-06-30":136162,"2026-06-30":182935},"cashPPE":{"2025-06-30":64551,"2026-06-30":115948},"notes":"Source says certain prior-period amounts recast. Existing tracker already matches these values."},"GOOGL_2026Q2":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm","publishedDate":"2026-07-22","locator":"Reconciliation from GAAP Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow; TTM Q2 2026","operatingCashFlow":{"2026-06-30":185675},"cashPPE":{"2026-06-30":132402},"quarterlyOCF":{"2025-Q3":48414,"2025-Q4":52402,"2026-Q1":45790,"2026-Q2":39069}},"GOOGL_2025Q2":{"url":"https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/2025q2-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf","publishedDate":"2025-07-23","locator":"PDF page 8, reconciliation table TTM Q2 2025","operatingCashFlow":{"2025-06-30":133708},"cashPPE":{"2025-06-30":66980},"quarterlyOCF":{"2024-Q3":30698,"2024-Q4":39113,"2025-Q1":36150,"2025-Q2":27747}},"META_2025FY":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003942/meta-20251231.htm","locator":"Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows and FCF reconciliation; FY2025 and FY2024","operatingCashFlow":{"FY2024":91328,"FY2025":115800},"cashPPE":{"FY2024":37256,"FY2025":69691}},"META_2026H1":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026050705/meta-20260630.htm","locator":"Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, page 10; H1 2026 and H1 2025","operatingCashFlow":{"H12025":49587,"H12026":64088},"cashPPE":{"H12025":29479,"H12026":49113},"notes":"Finance lease principal paid is separately shown in financing activities and excluded from the tracker metric."},"META_2025H1":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828025036791/meta-20250630.htm","locator":"Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, H1 2025 and H1 2024","operatingCashFlow":{"H12024":38616,"H12025":49587},"cashPPE":{"H12024":14573,"H12025":29479}}},"companies":[{"ticker":"AMZN","priorPeriodEnd":"2025-06-30","currentPeriodEnd":"2026-06-30","priorOperatingCashFlow":121137,"operatingCashFlow":161403,"priorCashPPE":107656,"cashPPE":173028,"priorCashAfterPPE":13481,"cashAfterPPE":-11625,"priorReinvestmentPct":88.87127797452472,"reinvestmentPct":107.20246835560678,"operatingCashGrowthPct":33.24005052131058,"capexGrowthPct":60.72304376904214,"cashAfterPPEGrowthPct":-186.2324753356576},{"ticker":"GOOGL","priorPeriodEnd":"2025-06-30","currentPeriodEnd":"2026-06-30","priorOperatingCashFlow":133708,"operatingCashFlow":185675,"priorCashPPE":66980,"cashPPE":132402,"priorCashAfterPPE":66728,"cashAfterPPE":53273,"priorReinvestmentPct":50.094235199090555,"reinvestmentPct":71.30846909923252,"operatingCashGrowthPct":38.866036437610305,"capexGrowthPct":97.67393251716932,"cashAfterPPEGrowthPct":-20.16394916676657},{"ticker":"MSFT","priorPeriodEnd":"2025-06-30","currentPeriodEnd":"2026-06-30","priorOperatingCashFlow":136162,"operatingCashFlow":182935,"priorCashPPE":64551,"cashPPE":115948,"priorCashAfterPPE":71611,"cashAfterPPE":66987,"priorReinvestmentPct":47.407499889837105,"reinvestmentPct":63.38207560062317,"operatingCashGrowthPct":34.35099366930567,"capexGrowthPct":79.62231413920775,"cashAfterPPEGrowthPct":-6.457108544776635},{"ticker":"META","priorPeriodEnd":"2025-06-30","currentPeriodEnd":"2026-06-30","priorOperatingCashFlow":102299,"operatingCashFlow":130301,"priorCashPPE":52162,"cashPPE":89325,"priorCashAfterPPE":50137,"cashAfterPPE":40976,"priorReinvestmentPct":50.9897457453152,"reinvestmentPct":68.55281233451777,"operatingCashGrowthPct":27.372701590435877,"capexGrowthPct":71.24535102181665,"cashAfterPPEGrowthPct":-18.27193489837844}],"metaDerivations":{"ocf2025":"91328 FY2024 + 49587 H12025 - 38616 H12024 = 102299","ocf2026":"115800 FY2025 + 64088 H12026 - 49587 H12025 = 130301","ppe2025":"37256 FY2024 + 29479 H12025 - 14573 H12024 = 52162","ppe2026":"69691 FY2025 + 49113 H12026 - 29479 H12025 = 89325"},"limitations":["OCF is company-wide, not incremental AI earnings or proof AI investment pays for itself.","Cash PP&E excludes noncash lease additions and financing lease principal; does not represent total investment commitments.","Residual excludes acquisitions, investment stakes, debt principal, finance leases, dividends, buybacks and other cash claims.","Amazon cash PP&E uses gross purchases consistent with existing tracker rather than net company FCF basis.","Operating cash flow includes stock-based compensation addbacks, working-capital changes and timing of cash taxes; use TTM but do not call it normalized sustainable cash earnings.","100% reinvestment is an accounting comparison, not a solvency threshold; existing cash/debt/equity access can finance differences.","Aggregated surplus does not transfer cash between companies; company detail must show Amazon cash PP&E exceeds its OCF."]}}