January CPI: 2.4% YoY vs 2.5% YoY expected (below expectations)
2.4% vs 2.5% expected — lowest since May. Core at 2.5%, lowest since March 2021. June rate cut odds jumped to 70%.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
Cooler than expected across the board. Core CPI lowest since March 2021. Rate cut bets surged.
📖 Why This Matters
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking the average change in prices consumers pay for goods and services. This 02/2026 reading came in cooler than expectations at 2.4%, signaling dovish implications for Federal Reserve policy. This compares to the prior month's 2.6%. CPI data is closely watched as it directly influences Fed rate decisions and market expectations.
January CPI actual vs expected
| Release date | Friday, February 13, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | CPI |
| Actual | 2.4% YoY |
| Expected | 2.5% YoY |
| Prior | 2.6% YoY |
| Expectation surprise | below expectations |
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FAQ
What was the January CPI result?
January CPI came in at 2.4% YoY versus 2.5% YoY expected, below expectations.
How did markets react to January CPI?
SPY +1.0%, BTC +4.2%, Gold +0.8%
🔗 Related Events
February CPI
Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY, matching January, with a 0.3% monthly gain. Sticky shelter and food kept pressure on the Fed, but the print largely met expectations.
March CPI
Headline CPI jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY in March, exactly matching consensus, as gasoline and war-related energy pressure hit the print hard. Core CPI came in at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, softer than feared, which kept the print from becoming a full-blown policy shock.
April CPI
April CPI came in hot: headline inflation rose 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY, above the 3.7% consensus and up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, keeping inflation pressure too firm for the Fed to turn dovish.