July Employment Situation (NFP): -23K jobs vs 83K jobs expected (below expectations)
Payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K in July versus an 83K gain expected, while unemployment ticked down to 4.1% as participation slipped to 61.4%. May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K, turning the labor-market signal decisively softer.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
This was not a clean bullish labor print. The unemployment-rate drop came from weaker participation, average hourly earnings growth cooled to 3.2% YoY, and the big negative revisions made the prior labor resilience look overstated.
📖 Why This Matters
The Employment Situation report, commonly known as the Jobs Report or NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), provides crucial insights into the health of the U.S. labor market. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it includes non-farm payroll changes, unemployment rate, and wage growth data. This data is vital for Federal Reserve policy decisions, as employment is one half of the Fed's dual mandate alongside price stability.
July Employment Situation (NFP) actual vs expected
| Release date | Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | Jobs |
| Actual | -23K jobs |
| Expected | 83K jobs |
| Prior | 20K jobs |
| Expectation surprise | below expectations |
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FAQ
What was the July Employment Situation (NFP) result?
July Employment Situation (NFP) came in at -23K jobs versus 83K jobs expected, below expectations.
How did markets react to July Employment Situation (NFP)?
Treasury yields fell and stocks finished higher as the weak payroll print gutted near-term Fed hike odds; S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Dow +0.1%.
🔗 Related Events
February Employment Situation (NFP)
DISASTER — Economy lost 92,000 jobs (vs +56K expected). Unemployment jumped to 4.4%. January revised down to +126K. Worst jobs print since the pandemic era.
March Employment Situation (NFP)
Payrolls rebounded by 178K in March after February's shock decline, beating the 70K consensus. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%, while average hourly earnings growth cooled enough to keep the report from looking too inflationary. The report still showed a labor market losing some depth under the hood.
April Employment Situation (NFP)
Payrolls rose 115K in April, beating roughly 65K expected, while unemployment held at 4.3%. Wage growth cooled to 0.2% MoM and 3.6% YoY, making it a resilient-but-not-too-hot labor report.