September Employment Situation (NFP): Results, market reaction, and key takeaway
Nonfarm payrolls rose 29K in September, while unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. August payroll growth was revised to 133K and July to -10K, a combined 60K downward revision. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
💡 Key Takeaway
Slow hiring, downward revisions, and softer wage growth reduce labor-driven inflation pressure, but do not establish an imminent Fed cut or prove AI displaced workers. The rate outlook remains important for long-duration AI equities.
📖 Why This Matters
The Employment Situation report, commonly known as the Jobs Report or NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), provides crucial insights into the health of the U.S. labor market. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it includes non-farm payroll changes, unemployment rate, and wage growth data. This data is vital for Federal Reserve policy decisions, as employment is one half of the Fed's dual mandate alongside price stability.
September Employment Situation (NFP) actual vs expected
| Release date | Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | Jobs |
| Actual | 29K jobs |
| Prior | 133K jobs |
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🔗 Related Events
February Employment Situation (NFP)
DISASTER — Economy lost 92,000 jobs (vs +56K expected). Unemployment jumped to 4.4%. January revised down to +126K. Worst jobs print since the pandemic era.
March Employment Situation (NFP)
Payrolls rebounded by 178K in March after February's shock decline, beating the 70K consensus. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%, while average hourly earnings growth cooled enough to keep the report from looking too inflationary. The report still showed a labor market losing some depth under the hood.
April Employment Situation (NFP)
Payrolls rose 115K in April, beating roughly 65K expected, while unemployment held at 4.3%. Wage growth cooled to 0.2% MoM and 3.6% YoY, making it a resilient-but-not-too-hot labor report.