FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026: Complete Calendar
Stay ahead of the Federal Reserve with the complete 2026 FOMC meeting calendar, rate expectations, market impact analysis, and trading strategies for each meeting.
📅 2026 FOMC Meeting Dates at a Glance
Q1-Q2 Meetings
- • January 28-29 — Policy statement only
- • March 18-19 — Dot plot + SEP (next meeting)
- • May 6-7 — Policy statement only
- • June 17-18 — Dot plot + SEP
Q3-Q4 Meetings
- • July 29-30 — Policy statement only
- • September 16-17 — Dot plot + SEP
- • October 28-29 — Policy statement only
- • December 9-10 — Dot plot + SEP
Note: Decision announcements at 2:00 PM ET, press conferences at 2:30 PM ET for dot plot meetings.
🚨 Next Meeting: March 18-19, 2026
LIVE — 5 DAYS AWAYExpected Decision
HOLD
92%+ probability (CME FedWatch)
Current Rate
3.50% - 3.75%
Held since December 2025
Key Event
Dot Plot
First update since Iran crisis
What to watch: This is the first dot plot since the Iran conflict sent oil above $80. Will the FOMC maintain its 1-cut outlook for 2026, or shift hawkish due to energy-driven inflation risks?
📊 Complete 2026 FOMC Meeting Calendar
January 28-29, 2026 ✅
Policy statement only • No press conferenceDecision
HOLD at 3.50% - 3.75%
Vote
Unanimous (12-0)
Market Reaction
Neutral
Key Takeaways
- • Fed acknowledged "some further progress" on inflation but stayed cautious
- • Statement removed reference to "balanced risks," signaling slight hawkish tilt
- • Labor market described as "strong" but showing signs of "gradual cooling"
- • No mention of Iran conflict (meeting ended before escalation)
March 18-19, 2026 🔥
Dot plot + SEP + Powell press conferenceExpected Decision
HOLD (92% odds)
Dot Plot Focus
2026 rate path
Key Risk
Oil shock impact
What Changed Since December
- • Iran War: Oil above $82, energy costs spiking
- • Weak Jobs: February hiring nearly stalled
- • 15% Tariffs: Global tariff implementation
- • Powell Transition: Term ending May, Warsh nominated
Hawkish Scenario
Median dot shifts to 0 cuts — oil shock forces abandonment of easing bias
Base Case
Median stays at 1 cut — inflation acknowledged but not panicked
Dovish Scenario
Median shows 2 cuts — growth fears dominate
May 6-7, 2026
Policy statement only • No press conferenceMarket Expectations
- • Decision odds: 78% HOLD, 22% cut (depends on March dot plot shift)
- • Key data: April CPI, jobs report, Q1 GDP (released late April)
- • Iran factor: Strait of Hormuz situation stability
- • Leadership: Potential first meeting with Chair Kevin Warsh (if confirmed)
June 17-18, 2026
Dot plot + SEP + press conferenceKey Themes
- • Mid-year assessment: Inflation progress review after 6 months
- • Summer cut window: Traditional timing for first rate cuts
- • Q1 data digest: Full quarter of post-oil-shock data
- • Presidential election: 5 months before election — political sensitivity
July 29-30, 2026
Policy statement only • No press conferenceElection Proximity Risk
With presidential election 3 months away, Fed traditionally avoids major policy changes. This could be the last "normal" meeting before pre-election caution sets in. If cuts are coming in 2026, this is a critical decision point.
September 16-17, 2026
Dot plot + SEP + press conferencePre-Election Blackout Risk
- • Final major meeting: Before November 5 election
- • Historical precedent: Fed avoids October surprises
- • Dot plot significance: Last rate guidance before election
- • Market pricing: Currently 39% odds for first 2026 cut
October 28-29, 2026
Policy statement only • No press conferencePre-Election Sensitivity
Meeting ends just 7 days before the presidential election. Historical Fed policy avoids major changes this close to elections. Expect HOLD unless economic emergency forces action.
December 9-10, 2026
Dot plot + SEP + press conference2027 Outlook Setting
- • Dot plot focus: 2027 rate projections take center stage
- • New administration: First meeting after election results
- • Policy reset: Potential 2027 policy framework changes
- • Year-end cut? Traditional December cut timing if economy weakens
📈 How to Trade FOMC Meetings
Pre-Meeting Strategy
- • Check CME FedWatch: Current rate expectations vs dot plot
- • Review recent data: CPI, jobs, GDP released since last meeting
- • Fed speak analysis: Recent speeches for policy hints
- • Position sizing: Reduce size due to volatility risk
- • Asset correlations: USD/yields/stocks/crypto relationships
During Meeting Strategy
- • 2:00 PM ET: Decision and statement release
- • Initial reaction: Check median dot vs expectations
- • Distribution analysis: Consensus tightening/widening
- • Wait for Powell: Press conference at 2:30 PM clarifies
- • Sustained moves: Real trends emerge 30+ minutes later
📊 Asset Class Playbook
🦅 If Dots Go Higher (Hawkish)
- • USD: Immediate strength vs EUR, JPY, GBP
- • Yields: 10Y/2Y spike, steepening possible
- • Stocks: Tech/growth pressure, banks up
- • Crypto: BTC/ETH sell pressure, risk-off
- • Gold: Weakness on higher real yields
🕊️ If Dots Go Lower (Dovish)
- • USD: Weakness vs major pairs
- • Yields: Bond rally, curve flattening
- • Stocks: Risk-on rally, growth outperforms
- • Crypto: BTC/ETH surge on liquidity hopes
- • Gold: Strength on lower real yields
🌊 How FOMC Meetings Impact Markets
Stock Market Reactions
Growth stocks (QQQ) are most sensitive to rate changes due to longer-duration cash flows. Financial stocks (XLF) often move opposite to growth — they benefit from higher rates through improved net interest margins.
2026 pattern: Tech has declined after 7 of 8 FOMC meetings, creating persistent "sell the news" behavior.
US Dollar Impact
The DXY typically moves immediately on dot plot surprises. Higher dots strengthen USD through increased yield advantage over foreign currencies. This creates ripple effects across commodities, emerging markets, and global trade.
Iran factor: USD strength from hawkish Fed could pressure oil prices in USD terms, partially offsetting geopolitical risk premiums.
Cryptocurrency Reactions
Bitcoin and crypto markets show high beta to Fed policy. Hawkish shifts trigger risk-off selling while dovish pivots fuel debasement narratives. The $55B+ in spot Bitcoin ETFs means institutional flows now respond directly to rate expectations.
Correlation breakdown: During major Fed surprises, Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq can spike to 0.8+, making it essentially a leveraged tech trade.
Gold & Commodities
Gold responds to real yields (nominal rates minus inflation expectations). Higher dots don't always hurt gold if inflation expectations rise faster than rates. Oil's current strength complicates this relationship.
Oil wildcard: If Fed turns hawkish due to energy-driven inflation, oil could continue rising despite USD strength — a rare decoupling.
🔗 Related Fed Resources
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