EXPERIMENTALAI-generated, unvetted, may be wrong.

These ideas are generated automatically by an AI model from one day of free public attention data (pageviews, app charts, bestseller lists, forum chatter). Model output is checked for evidence references, not independently validated as an investment thesis. Attention is not revenue, sources fail, and the model can misread a spike. This is a public experiment, not investment advice. Do your own work.

Social Arbitrage Scanner

Consumer and technology attention signals mapped to stocks. A first snapshot is a baseline—not proof of a trend.

Run Sep 30, 2026 · logged (completion proxy) Sep 30, 2026, 1:09 AM EDT

487 signals · 7/7 sources returned data · model claude-opus-5-5

Actionable trades

Candidates rejected

Evidence rows

487

Research candidates tracked

Model's readThin, mostly first-run level data (no prior App Store or Amazon snapshots, empty Amazon Movers & Shakers feeds, Wikipedia at 3/366 titles, tiny-count Reddit ratios) shows no evidenced change in consumer behavior and no actionable idea; two low-confidence research baselines, MAT's KPop Demon Hunters doll and GIL's Hanes/Gildan basics, are worth tracking into late-October earnings amid a broad, unexplained drop in consumer stocks.

Partial coverage: 349 non-price rows; 52 have comparison baselines. A baseline is not proof of growth.Download this run: all evidence & ledger (JSON)

Today's research

Research watchlist ≠ trade signal. These candidates lack demonstrated behavior acceleration or a verified expectations gap. The next evidence to collect is shown in each card; directional hypotheses are not recommendations.

MATResearch watchlist · no trade

One Mattel Rumi doll is #22 in Amazon Toys, with 751 ratings. This is a purchase-rank snapshot, not sales volume or demonstrated growth.

Confidence

low

12w horizon

Amazon Best Sellers / MoversYahoo Finance

Evidence-to-trade brief

3 attention rows · 0 with a comparison baseline · 1 attention sources. Price rows excluded; counts are not a confidence score.

Observation receipts:S0179

What blocks a trade thesis

No prior SKU snapshot: demand acceleration has not been measured.
The line's launch timing, licensing economics and revenue contribution are unverified.
No dated guidance or consensus comparison establishes an expectations gap.

Next evidence to collect

Compare the same SKU's rank and ratings across dated snapshots; corroborate sell-through beyond Amazon before inferring a trend.
Verify the product's launch date and Mattel's licensing exposure using company disclosures.
Compare holiday commentary with dated guidance/consensus; verify the model-supplied Oct 27 earnings date before using it.

Stop / reassess: Reassess if the doll drops out of the top 50, ratings stall, or company commentary says the line is small or already included in guidance. The top-50 threshold is the model's proposed test, not a validated trading rule.

Editorial review Sep 30, 2026, 1:23 AM EDT. Based on this run only; not an independently verified investment recommendation.

Full model hypothesis & counter-evidence (unverified)

KPop Demon Hunters' likely first full holiday season with Mattel-made dolls could be an under-modeled Q4 driver. A Rumi 'Golden' singing doll already ranks #22 in all of Amazon Toys. This is a baseline to track, not proof of acceleration or of an expectations gap.

Behavior change

The change is historical and not in this dataset: KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix, June 2025) became a mass kids/tween franchise in 2025 (pre-cutoff context). My unverified recollection is that Mattel's line followed the 2025 breakout, so holiday 2026 is likely its first full holiday. Today's data only shows one first-snapshot purchase-rank level for Mattel's licensed doll. With no dated comparison, no acceleration is evidenced.

Catalyst

Q3 earnings and holiday-order commentary; then the Amazon ranks of KPDH SKUs through Black Friday and Cyber Monday; then the Q4 report in early 2027 (date not in data). (2026-10-27)

Strongest counter-evidence

This is a single SKU at a first-run level, and there is no velocity feed (Amazon Movers & Shakers returned 0 items). The Toys top 30 is dominated by party and Halloween goods plus private squishy/fidget brands, so the strongest toy behavior visible here goes to non-public companies. Netflix may license KPDH to several toy makers (unverified). MAT's negative 1m and 3m trend (cause unknown) may reflect cost, tariff or core-brand problems that swamp one license.

What would invalidate it

The doll, and any other KPDH SKUs, drop out of the Amazon Toys top 50 in October–November snapshots, or its ratings count stalls; or the 2026-10-27 call frames KPDH as small or already fully in guidance.

Revenue exposure (model estimate)

Unknown (no dated support); unverified heuristic: low-single-digit % of revenue · This is one licensed doll line inside a diversified portfolio (Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, games such as UNO). Mattel books the product revenue but pays royalties on Netflix-owned IP, so it captures only part of the margin. No KPDH sales figure exists in the data.

Why it may not be priced

Holiday sell-through for a newer licensed line is usually not visible until Q4 results, and Amazon ranks are not in consensus models. However, KPDH's popularity is widely known and may already be in guidance. MAT's 1m drop of 12.7% has an unknown cause and coincides with a broad consumer drawdown: 51 of 138 priced tickers fell more than 10% while SPY was about -0.4%. No stock-specific expectations gap is evidenced.

Evidence summary

S0179: the Mattel KPop Demon Hunters HUNTR/X Rumi 'Golden' Singing Doll is #22 in Amazon Toys bestsellers with 751 ratings (first snapshot). Few ratings for that rank fits a relatively recent listing, but that is an inference, not a dated comparison. S0181: Mattel UNO is #24 (60,935 ratings, a perennial). S0158: the #1 Toys item is a private-brand NeeDoh advent calendar; seasonal and private-brand items dominate the list. S0425: MAT closed at 13.22, down 12.7% over 1m (-12.3pp vs SPY) and 4.8% over 3m.

Inspect all 4 cited evidence rows

Evidence rows

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0179	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Mattel Kpop Demon Hunters HUNTR/X Rumi “Golden” Singing Doll \| Wearing Removable Signature Outfit, 5 Posable amazon_bestseller_rank_toys brand match 'Mattel'; 751 ratings; no prior snapshot	22	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0181	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Mattel Games UNO Card Game, Ages 7+, 2-10 Players \| Classic Card Game for Kids, Teens and Family Game Night, C amazon_bestseller_rank_toys brand match 'Mattel'; 60935 ratings; no prior snapshot	24	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0158	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Schylling NeeDoh Squishmas Advent Calendar (Pack of 1) \| Christmas Countdown with 24 Mini Squeeze Toys amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; no prior snapshot	1	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0425	Yahoo Finance	MAT price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 13.22; 1m excess vs SPY -12.3pp	-12.7	-4.8	—	Sep 29, 2026

GILResearch watchlist · no trade

Hanes/Gildan listings occupy 7 of Amazon Fashion's top 30 slots. Established listings and one snapshot do not demonstrate a trade-down trend.

Confidence

low

6w horizon

Amazon Best Sellers / MoversRedditYahoo Finance

Evidence-to-trade brief

11 attention rows · 0 with a comparison baseline · 2 attention sources. Price rows excluded; counts are not a confidence score.

Observation receipts:S0130 S0131 S0134 S0136 S0138 S0145 S0154

What blocks a trade thesis

Hanes-to-GIL ownership is assumed by the seed map, not verified by collected evidence.
No prior SKU ranks or channel sales establish improving demand or material revenue exposure.
The selloff's cause and the expectations gap remain unknown; Amazon does not measure the printwear business.

Next evidence to collect

Verify that the Hanes acquisition closed and confirm current revenue ownership in company filings before treating Hanes rows as GIL exposure.
Compare the same seven SKUs across dated snapshots, allowing for fleece seasonality and Amazon private-label competition.
Check filings/guidance for retail versus printwear demand and the selloff's cause; verify the model-supplied Oct 29 earnings date.

Stop / reassess: Reassess if the ownership mapping fails, the listings lose their top-30 positions, or disclosures show that non-consumer issues explain the selloff. Rank thresholds are proposed research tests, not validated trading rules.

Editorial review Sep 30, 2026, 1:23 AM EDT. Based on this run only; not an independently verified investment recommendation.

Full model hypothesis & counter-evidence (unverified)

Hanes and Gildan value basics hold 7 of the top 30 Amazon Fashion bestseller slots at the end of September, while GIL fell 19.4% in a month. Research whether the selloff is driven by consumer demand, in which case this data is a partial counterpoint, before the 2026-10-29 print.

Behavior change

None established. These are first-run levels only, and hoodies, tees and underwear multipacks are seasonal perennial Amazon bestsellers. Untested hypothesis: shoppers trading down to value basics keep Hanes/Gildan unit demand intact during a consumer drawdown.

Catalyst

Q3 earnings, the first read on retail/innerwear demand versus printwear demand. (2026-10-29)

Strongest counter-evidence

The listings carry 9.5k–335k ratings, meaning they are long-standing perennials; their presence is the status quo, not a change. Amazon Essentials private label competes in the same basics (#10, #19, #30). S0225 flags a quality-perception risk for value fleece. The Hanes-to-GIL mapping depends on the deal having closed. Amazon is likely a minority channel.

What would invalidate it

Hanes/Gildan SKUs lose top-30 Amazon Fashion slots in October snapshots during peak fleece season; or the selloff turns out to have a non-consumer cause, making the thesis irrelevant; or the Q3 print shows weak sell-through in innerwear or retail.

Revenue exposure (model estimate)

Unknown for the Amazon channel; unverified heuristic: Hanes-branded products are roughly half of combined revenue if the Hanesbrands deal closed · From memory and unverified: Gildan agreed in 2025 to acquire Hanesbrands, a business of broadly similar revenue scale. Completion is not verified from the data; the seed map assumes it. Amazon is one of several retail channels, and mass merchants are likely larger. Gildan's legacy B2B printwear/distributor business is not measured by these rows at all.

Why it may not be priced

It has not been shown to be mispriced. Amazon ranks are not in consensus, but these levels show no improvement. The cause of the 1m drop is unknown and coincides with a broad consumer drawdown (51 of 138 priced tickers fell more than 10% while SPY was about -0.4%). Plausible non-consumer drivers (printwear/distributor demand, integration, leverage, tariffs) are hypotheses this data cannot test.

Evidence summary

Amazon Fashion bestsellers, first snapshot, 7 of the top 30: Hanes EcoSmart hoodie #3 (171,871 ratings, S0130), Hanes boxer briefs #4 (141,460, S0131), Gildan G1100 crew tees #7 (335,487, S0134), Hanes full-zip hoodie #9 (89,886, S0136), Hanes EcoSmart crewneck #11 (9,553, S0138), Hanes undershirts #18 (95,946, S0145) and Gildan G2000 multipack #27 (114,131, S0154). Amazon Essentials private label holds #10, #19 and #30 (S0137, S0146, S0157). S0225 is an r/femalefashionadvice post (#11 of the month) complaining that sweatshirts have gotten thinner. S0403: GIL closed at 42.79, down 19.4% over 1m (-19.0pp vs SPY) and 16.7% over 3m.

Inspect all 12 cited evidence rows

Evidence rows

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0130	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Hanes Men's Hoodie - EcoSmart Fleece Hooded Sweatshirt for Men & Women - Midweight Fleece - Big & Tall Availab amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Hanes'; 171871 ratings; no prior snapshot	3	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0131	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Hanes mens Underwear Boxer Briefs Pack, Cool & Breathable Cotton Moisture-wicking Underwear for Men, No Ride U amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Hanes'; 141460 ratings; no prior snapshot	4	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0134	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Gildan Men's Crew T-Shirts, Multipack, Style G1100 amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Gildan'; 335487 ratings; no prior snapshot	7	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0136	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Hanes Men's Zip-up Hoodie, Ecosmart Fleece Full-zip Hoodie for Men, Hooded Sweatshirt amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Hanes'; 89886 ratings; no prior snapshot	9	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0138	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Hanes Men's Sweatshirt, EcoSmart Fleece Crewneck Sweatshirt, Big & Tall Available, 1 or 2-Pack amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Hanes'; 9553 ratings; no prior snapshot	11	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0145	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Hanes Men's Undershirt Packs, Stay-Tucked Soft Cotton Undershirts, Best Undershirts for Men, White/Black/Asstd amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Hanes'; 95946 ratings; no prior snapshot	18	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0154	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Gildan Adult Ultra Cotton T-Shirt, Style G2000, Multipack amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Gildan'; 114131 ratings; no prior snapshot	27	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0137	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Amazon Essentials Men's Fleece Open Bottom Sweatpant (Available in Big & Tall) amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Amazon'; 63424 ratings; no prior snapshot	10	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0146	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Amazon Essentials Women's Cotton Spandex Bikini Brief Underwear (Available in Plus Size) amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Amazon'; 44301 ratings; no prior snapshot	19	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0157	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Amazon Essentials Women's Slim-Fit Ribbed Scoop Neck Tank Tops, Pack of 2 amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion brand match 'Amazon'; 78708 ratings; no prior snapshot	30	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0225	Reddit	Sweatshirts: A Tragic Victim of Ensh*tification reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/femalefashionadvice; 1.3d old; excerpt: Can any other gals relate to this? It’s been an issue for me for about two years now and I guess it’s here to stay. I’m talking about the thinning of sweatshir	11	—	—	Sep 28, 2026, 5:44 PM EDT
S0403	Yahoo Finance	GIL price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 42.79; 1m excess vs SPY -19.0pp	-19.4	-16.7	—	Sep 29, 2026

Rejected signals

The most eye-catching signals the model looked at and passed on, and why.

Muse from Meta (#1 top free) and the Meta app clusterMETAS0003 S0012 S0020 S0027 S0066 S0080 S0272 S0309 S0427

This is the most eye-catching app row, but #1 on a first-run snapshot is a level, not growth or a launch date; the cause is unknown from data. A free app inside a mega-cap has no measurable revenue link here. META is already up 27.9% over 1m (+28.3pp vs SPY), so whatever drove it is likely priced. The Reddit Instagram ratio of 9.86x is 3 posts against a 0.3/week baseline. Google Trends for Instagram is down (0.895x).

Inspect 9 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0003	Apple App Store charts	Muse from Meta appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Meta Platforms, Inc.; developer 'Meta Platforms, Inc.' matches Meta Platforms; no prior snapshot (first run)	1	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0012	Apple App Store charts	Threads appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Instagram, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Threads'; no prior snapshot (first run)	10	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0020	Apple App Store charts	WhatsApp Messenger appstore_us_top_free_rank developer WhatsApp Inc.; app name matches brand 'WhatsApp'; no prior snapshot (first run)	18	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0027	Apple App Store charts	Instagram appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Instagram, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Instagram'; no prior snapshot (first run)	25	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0066	Apple App Store charts	Instagram appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Instagram, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Instagram'; no prior snapshot (first run)	7	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0080	Apple App Store charts	Facebook appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Meta Platforms, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Facebook'; no prior snapshot (first run)	21	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0272	Reddit	Instagram reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/MakeupAddiction: "Help figuring out Florence Pugh’s lipstick" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wskx0j/help_figuring_out_florence_pughs_lipstick/; r/femalefashionadvice: "Why does everyone on Instagram dress the same? Where did individuality go?" https://www.reddit.com/r/femalefashionadvice/comments/1wpxsng/why_does_everyone_on_instagram_dress_the_same/	3	0.3	×9.86	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0309	Google Trends	Instagram google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'Instagram'	31.1	34.8	×0.895	Sep 29, 2026
S0427	Yahoo Finance	META price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 738.79; 1m excess vs SPY +28.3pp	27.9	31.3	—	Sep 29, 2026

Resale apps: Vinted #2 and Depop #9 top freeETSYS0004 S0011 S0225 S0236 S0263 S0303 S0398

This is the most Camillo-like behavior hypothesis today: shoppers moving to pre-loved fashion amid complaints about new-garment quality (S0225, S0236). But both ranks are first-run levels that could reflect paid user acquisition. Vinted has no public mapping. Depop-to-ETSY is an unverified seed mapping, and current ownership must be checked (possible divestiture, unverified recollection). eBay shows no corroboration: Trends 0.869x and only 2 Reddit posts. ETSY's 1m drop of 17.1% has an unknown cause.

Inspect 7 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0004	Apple App Store charts	Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Vinted Limited; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	2	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0011	Apple App Store charts	Depop - Buy & Sell Clothes appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Depop Ltd; app name matches brand 'Depop'; no prior snapshot (first run)	9	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0225	Reddit	Sweatshirts: A Tragic Victim of Ensh*tification reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/femalefashionadvice; 1.3d old; excerpt: Can any other gals relate to this? It’s been an issue for me for about two years now and I guess it’s here to stay. I’m talking about the thinning of sweatshir	11	—	—	Sep 28, 2026, 5:44 PM EDT
S0236	Reddit	I feel like these suggestions aren't helpful when the only version you can purchase today is much worse than the one you reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/BuyItForLife; 1.5d old; excerpt: submitted by /u/Prace_Ace to r/BuyItForLife [link] [comments]	2	—	—	Sep 28, 2026, 11:38 AM EDT
S0263	Reddit	eBay reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/Sneakers: "Under retail still can’t believe it" https://www.reddit.com/r/Sneakers/comments/1wpie8d/under_retail_still_cant_believe_it/; r/BuyItForLife: "Resurrecting a 1993 Barbour Border!" https://www.reddit.com/r/BuyItForLife/comments/1wodz39/resurrecting_a_1993_barbour_border/	2	0.91	×2.19	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0303	Google Trends	eBay google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'eBay'	75.9	87.2	×0.869	Sep 29, 2026
S0398	Yahoo Finance	ETSY price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 69.28; 1m excess vs SPY -16.7pp	-17.1	-8	—	Sep 29, 2026

Consumer AI apps (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok) and OpenAI HN launchesS0005 S0060 S0016 S0068 S0010 S0081 S0053 S0318 S0312 S0310

ChatGPT (#1 grossing, #3 free), Claude (#9 grossing, #14 free), Gemini (#8 free) and Grok (#22 grossing) are first-run levels from private developers; Gemini is unmapped. HN scores (GPT 6.1 Sol 844, Dots 504, Livenerf 376) are discussion, not adoption. Any read-through to MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA or AMD is an unverified hypothesis and immaterial at mega-cap scale; Microsoft Copilot sits at only #78 free. No GitHub, Hugging Face or product-launch feeds were collected.

Inspect 10 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0005	Apple App Store charts	ChatGPT appstore_us_top_free_rank developer OpenAI OpCo, LLC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	3	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0060	Apple App Store charts	ChatGPT appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer OpenAI OpCo, LLC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	1	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0016	Apple App Store charts	Claude by Anthropic appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Anthropic PBC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	14	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0068	Apple App Store charts	Claude by Anthropic appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Anthropic PBC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	9	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0010	Apple App Store charts	Google Gemini appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Google; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	8	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0081	Apple App Store charts	Grok AI appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer X Corp.; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	22	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0053	Apple App Store charts	Microsoft Copilot appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Microsoft Corporation; app name matches brand 'Microsoft'; no prior snapshot (first run)	78	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0318	Hacker News	GPT 6.1 Sol: Near-Astra intelligence for a fifth of the price hn_frontpage_story_score_attention_only Unmapped story; comments=761; linked URL=https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-6-1-sol/; discussion only; title is NOT verified launch/adoption evidence; any beneficiary is a hypothesis requiring verification	844	—	—	Sep 29, 2026, 1:06 PM EDT
S0312	Hacker News	Dots: Always-on agents hn_frontpage_story_score_attention_only Unmapped story; comments=378; linked URL=https://openai.com/index/introducing-dots/; discussion only; title is NOT verified launch/adoption evidence; any beneficiary is a hypothesis requiring verification	504	—	—	Sep 29, 2026, 1:07 PM EDT
S0310	Hacker News	Livenerf: Has Opus 5.5 been nerfed yet? hn_frontpage_story_score_attention_only Unmapped story; comments=156; linked URL=https://github.com/ninjahawk/livenerf; discussion only; title is NOT verified launch/adoption evidence; any beneficiary is a hypothesis requiring verification	376	—	—	Sep 29, 2026, 6:36 PM EDT

Celsius #1 in Amazon GroceryCELHS0188 S0213 S0193 S0194 S0205 S0372

This is a level on a first snapshot. Celsius has long been a top Amazon grocery seller, so #1 (28,035 ratings) shows no change. The competitive read is mixed: unmapped Bloom Nutrition sits at #6 with a seasonal Apple Crisp flavor and only 2,080 ratings, Monster Zero Ultra at #7 and GHOST at #18. Alani Nu (Celsius-owned per recollection, unverified) is absent from the top 30. CELH's 1m drop of 16% has an unknown cause, and the direction is ambiguous. Treat it as a baseline to track before 2026-11-09 earnings and add Trends queries for Celsius, Alani Nu and Bloom.

Inspect 6 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0188	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	CELSIUS Assorted Flavors Official Variety Pack, Functional Essential Energy Drinks, 12 Fl Oz (Pack of 12) amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery brand match 'Celsius'; 28035 ratings; no prior snapshot	1	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0213	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	CELSIUS PEACH VIBE Sparkling White Peach, Sugar Free Energy Drink, 12 Fl Oz (Pack of 12) amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery brand match 'Celsius'; 7506 ratings; no prior snapshot	26	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0193	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Bloom Nutrition Zero Sugar Energy Drink, Apple Crisp, 12oz 12pk \| 180mg natural caffeine with prebiotics, gree amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 2080 ratings; no prior snapshot	6	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0194	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Monster Energy Zero Ultra, Sugar Free Energy Drink, 16 Ounce \| Pack of 15 amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery brand match 'Monster Energy'; 35617 ratings; no prior snapshot	7	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0205	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	GHOST Energy Drink, Zero Sugars, 12-Pack, Welch's Grape, 16oz \| Energy & Focus Pre Workout Drink, No Artificia amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery brand match 'Ghost'; 14911 ratings; no prior snapshot	18	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0372	Yahoo Finance	CELH price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 27.71; 1m excess vs SPY -15.6pp	-16	-5.4	—	Sep 29, 2026

K-beauty on Amazon Beauty (medicube toner pads #1, BIODANCE mask #13)S0098 S0110

The #1 and #13 items are non-universe brands with no public-ticker match. A negative read for Western mass beauty (LRLCY, EL, KVUE) would be an unverified hypothesis built on first-run levels for listings with 33k–49k ratings, which are not new.

Inspect 2 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0098	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	medicube Toner Pads Zero Pore Pad 2.0 for Exfoliation and Pore Care \| Dual-Textured Facial Pad with 4.5% AHA L amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty no public-ticker brand match; 33129 ratings; no prior snapshot	1	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0110	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	BIODANCE Bio-Collagen Real Deep Mask, Hydrating Overnight Hydrogel Face Mask, Pore Minimizing, Elasticity, Plu amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty no public-ticker brand match; 48804 ratings; no prior snapshot	13	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT

Pinterest Reddit mention ratio of 13.14xPINSS0280 S0281 S0043 S0441

This is the highest ratio in the set, but it is 4 posts against a 0.3/week baseline. The mentions are incidental (outfit and makeup inspiration), which is attention, not usage. The app's #54 free rank is a first-run level. PINS is down 20.1% over 1m for an unknown reason.

Inspect 4 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0280	Reddit	Pinterest reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/MakeupAddiction: "Bringing back 2016 glam" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wqama6/bringing_back_2016_glam/; r/malefashionadvice: "Discussion of this style - help" https://www.reddit.com/r/malefashionadvice/comments/1wruadh/discussion_of_this_style_help/	4	0.3	×13.14	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0281	Reddit	Pinterest reddit_posts_mentioning_in_newest_100_per_vertical r/MakeupAddiction: "Bringing back 2016 glam" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wqama6/bringing_back_2016_glam/; r/malefashionadvice: "Discussion of this style - help" https://www.reddit.com/r/malefashionadvice/comments/1wruadh/discussion_of_this_style_help/	2	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0043	Apple App Store charts	Pinterest appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Pinterest, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Pinterest'; no prior snapshot (first run)	54	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0441	Yahoo Finance	PINS price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 18.54; 1m excess vs SPY -19.6pp	-20.1	-11.8	—	Sep 29, 2026

Paramount+ #6 and Peacock #4 top grossingPSKYS0065 S0056 S0063 S0014 S0444

Late-September streaming spend is likely driven by the NFL season, and sports events are not durable adoption. These are first-run levels only. Peacock (Comcast) is outside the universe. PSKY's price may be dominated by corporate or M&A factors (unverified), so one app's rank cannot be isolated; PSKY is down 7.8% over 1m.

Inspect 5 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0065	Apple App Store charts	Paramount+ appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer CBS Interactive; app name matches brand 'Paramount+'; no prior snapshot (first run)	6	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0056	Apple App Store charts	Paramount+ appstore_us_top_free_rank developer CBS Interactive; app name matches brand 'Paramount+'; no prior snapshot (first run)	87	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0063	Apple App Store charts	Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Peacock TV LLC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	4	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0014	Apple App Store charts	Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Peacock TV LLC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	12	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0444	Yahoo Finance	PSKY price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 9.99; 1m excess vs SPY -7.3pp	-7.8	1.8	—	Sep 29, 2026

MONOPOLY GO! #8 top grossingHASS0067 S0176 S0406

The developer is Scopely, a third-party licensee, so Hasbro receives licensing economics rather than app revenue; mapping and materiality are uncertain. It is a long-running top-grossing title, so the level shows no change. The Play-Doh bulk pack at #19 in Toys (S0176) is unmapped (likely Hasbro) and seasonal.

Inspect 3 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0067	Apple App Store charts	MONOPOLY GO! appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Scopely, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Monopoly'; no prior snapshot (first run)	8	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0176	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Play Doh Bulk Handout 42-Pack of 1-Ounce Modeling Compound Cans, Back to School Gifts, Prizes, & Party Favors, amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; 17566 ratings; no prior snapshot	19	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0406	Yahoo Finance	HAS price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 88.26; 1m excess vs SPY -5.9pp	-6.3	7.7	—	Sep 29, 2026

HBO Max #10 top grossingWBDS0069 S0478

This is a first-run level. WBD (close 30.85, up 7.2% over 1m) may be trading on M&A terms (status unverified from data), so consumer app signals cannot be expressed through the stock.

Inspect 2 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0069	Apple App Store charts	HBO Max: Stream Movies & TV appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer WarnerMedia Global Digital Services, LLC; app name matches brand 'HBO Max'; no prior snapshot (first run)	10	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0478	Yahoo Finance	WBD price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 30.85; 1m excess vs SPY +7.7pp	7.2	15.7	—	Sep 29, 2026

Tipsy Chat: Live Your Story (#49 grossing) mapped to IntelINTCS0092 S0411

This is a mapping false positive: the developer 'LIGHTSPEED INTELLIGENCE LTD' matched 'Intel' by substring, so there is no Intel exposure. INTC's 1m gain of 29.6% has no consumer-signal support in this dataset (cause unknown).

Inspect 2 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0092	Apple App Store charts	Tipsy Chat: Live Your Story appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer LIGHTSPEED INTELLIGENCE LTD; developer 'LIGHTSPEED INTELLIGENCE LTD' matches Intel; no prior snapshot (first run); POST-ANALYSIS AUDIT: Intel substring false positive removed; developer is LIGHTSPEED INTELLIGENCE LTD; ownership unknown.	49	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0411	Yahoo Finance	INTC price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 115.93; 1m excess vs SPY +30.0pp	29.6	-17	—	Sep 29, 2026

Starbucks Reddit volume and store-closure postsSBUXS0270 S0269 S0233 S0234 S0231 S0293 S0307 S0457

The posts are driven by news of reported closures of 250 North America stores, not consumer adoption. The 78 mentions in the newest 100 posts are structural, because r/starbucks is named after the brand, and the 7d-vs-prior ratio is 0.85x. Frappuccino at 0.474x reflects summer-drink seasonality. Trends for Starbucks at 1.054x is likely closure news. SBUX is down 11.5% over 1m.

Inspect 8 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0270	Reddit	Starbucks reddit_posts_mentioning_in_newest_100_per_vertical r/starbucks: "Imagine this being nonstop in your entire shift" https://www.reddit.com/r/starbucks/comments/1wo6ri0/imagine_this_being_nonstop_in_your_entire_shift/; r/starbucks: "Starbucks closing 250 locations, are yall okay?" https://www.reddit.com/r/starbucks/comments/1wq03se/starbucks_closing_250_locations_are_yall_okay/	78	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0269	Reddit	Starbucks reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/starbucks: "Imagine this being nonstop in your entire shift" https://www.reddit.com/r/starbucks/comments/1wo6ri0/imagine_this_being_nonstop_in_your_entire_shift/; r/starbucks: "Starbucks closing 250 locations, are yall okay?" https://www.reddit.com/r/starbucks/comments/1wq03se/starbucks_closing_250_locations_are_yall_okay/	13	15.22	×0.85	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0233	Reddit	Starbucks closing 250 locations, are yall okay? reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/starbucks; 4.5d old; excerpt: This location is one of the busiest in my county but theyre closing, are yall okay? Like genuinely, I feel bad enough that you guys have to write on cups and d	17	—	—	Sep 25, 2026, 11:58 AM EDT
S0234	Reddit	Starbucks to Close 250 North America Locations This Week reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/fastfood; 5.4d old; excerpt: submitted by /u/L0v3_1s_War to r/fastfood [link] [comments]	22	—	—	Sep 24, 2026, 2:59 PM EDT
S0231	Reddit	Imagine this being nonstop in your entire shift reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/starbucks; 6.6d old; excerpt: submitted by /u/AviationUnbound to r/starbucks [link] [comments]	9	—	—	Sep 23, 2026, 9:58 AM EDT
S0293	Google Trends	Frappuccino google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'Frappuccino'	4	8.4	×0.474	Sep 29, 2026
S0307	Google Trends	Starbucks google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'Starbucks'	15.9	15	×1.054	Sep 29, 2026
S0457	Yahoo Finance	SBUX price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 95.43; 1m excess vs SPY -11.1pp	-11.5	-6.1	—	Sep 29, 2026

Nike search decline and sneaker-resale compression chatterNKES0289 S0302 S0247 S0262 S0224 S0227 S0432

NKE reports on 2026-10-01, which supersedes any read here. Trends for 'Nike' at 0.819x (36.9 vs 45) compares against a prior 3 months that included back-to-school, so seasonality is likely. Reddit Nike is flat (0.99x on 3 posts), and Air Max at 3.29x is a single post that is a quality-control complaint. Resale-price posts are attention and anecdote, not purchase data. NKE is already down 8.5% over 1m.

Inspect 7 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0289	Google Trends	Nike google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'Nike'	36.9	45	×0.819	Sep 29, 2026
S0302	Google Trends	Nike Air Max google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'Nike Air Max'	3.3	4.3	×0.772	Sep 29, 2026
S0247	Reddit	Nike reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/Sneakers: "The year is 1998 and nobody could convince me there’s a better player in the world than th" https://www.reddit.com/r/Sneakers/comments/1wqoslm/the_year_is_1998_and_nobody_could_convince_me/; r/Sneakers: "nike x One piece" https://www.reddit.com/r/Sneakers/comments/1wrzy8j/nike_x_one_piece/	3	3.04	×0.99	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0262	Reddit	Nike Air Max reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/Sneakers: "nike x One piece" https://www.reddit.com/r/Sneakers/comments/1wrzy8j/nike_x_one_piece/; r/Sneakers: "Minor QC issues with the Air Max 1000s" https://www.reddit.com/r/Sneakers/comments/1wtt8o6/minor_qc_issues_with_the_air_max_1000s/	1	0.3	×3.29	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0224	Reddit	Who would’ve thought reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/Sneakers; 4.6d old; excerpt: 14 year old me who saw these go for $700+ is going nuts. Thought about doubling (or tripling) up on these haha submitted by /u/steezy2110 to r/Sneakers [link]	4	—	—	Sep 25, 2026, 10:34 AM EDT
S0227	Reddit	Sneaker reseller complains that he can’t upcharge customers anymore reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/Sneakers; 4.7d old; excerpt: submitted by /u/jpz070 to r/Sneakers [link] [comments]	16	—	—	Sep 25, 2026, 7:35 AM EDT
S0432	Yahoo Finance	NKE price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 35.84; 1m excess vs SPY -8.1pp	-8.5	-11.8	—	Sep 29, 2026

Pokémon GO #29 and TCG Pocket #86 grossing; Pokémon TCG 30th booster #26 in ToysNTDOYS0087 S0095 S0183 S0167 S0283 S0434

Pokémon GO is developed by Scopely Explore under license. The Pokémon Company is a Nintendo affiliate (minority stake per recollection), so revenue capture is indirect and diluted. 30th-anniversary product demand is a known event. Reddit Pokémon mentions are 0. These are levels only.

Inspect 6 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0087	Apple App Store charts	Pokémon GO appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Scopely Explore, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Pokémon'; no prior snapshot (first run)	29	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0095	Apple App Store charts	Pokémon TCG Pocket appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer The Pokemon Company; app name matches brand 'Pokémon'; no prior snapshot (first run)	86	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0183	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration Booster Bundle amazon_bestseller_rank_toys brand match 'Pokémon'; no prior snapshot	26	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0167	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	50+ Official Pokemon Cards Collection with 5 Foils in Any Combination and at Least 1 Rarity, GX, EX, FA, Tag T amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; 13357 ratings; no prior snapshot	10	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0283	Reddit	Pokémon reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) no recent example	0	0.61	×0	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0434	Yahoo Finance	NTDOY price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 12.52; 1m excess vs SPY -9.6pp	-10.1	19.5	—	Sep 29, 2026

Neutrogena wipes #6 in Amazon BeautyKVUES0103 S0278 S0419 S0415

This is a level on a perennial listing. KVUE's close of 17.91 sits about 0.4% below the value implied by my unverified recollection of the announced Kimberly-Clark deal terms ($3.50 cash plus 0.14625 KMB shares, with KMB at 98.99). That is consistent with KVUE trading as a deal proxy, so a Neutrogena signal cannot be expressed independently.

Inspect 4 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0103	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Neutrogena Makeup Remover Micellar Wipes, 2 Pack of 25 Ct \| Plant-Based Micellar Water Cleansing Cloths, Gentl amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'Neutrogena'; 122021 ratings; no prior snapshot	6	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0278	Reddit	Neutrogena reddit_posts_mentioning_in_newest_100_per_vertical r/SkincareAddiction: "[Routine Help] Need help with skincare order" https://www.reddit.com/r/SkincareAddiction/comments/1wtr2mm/routine_help_need_help_with_skincare_order/; r/SkincareAddiction: "[Routine Help] Is this skin care routine okay? (Relatively novice still)" https://www.reddit.com/r/SkincareAddiction/comments/1wtqw1l/routine_help_is_this_skin_care_routine_okay/	3	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0419	Yahoo Finance	KVUE price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 17.91; 1m excess vs SPY -5.0pp	-5.5	-4.1	—	Sep 29, 2026
S0415	Yahoo Finance	KMB price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 98.99; 1m excess vs SPY -8.1pp	-8.6	-8.7	—	Sep 29, 2026

L'Oréal brands in Amazon Beauty (La Roche-Posay #7/#17, Maybelline #9, CeraVe #25/#30) and search declinesLRLCYS0104 S0106 S0114 S0122 S0127 S0297 S0304 S0284 S0276 S0421

These are perennial first-run levels. Trends are mixed to down: CeraVe is 0.731x, and La Roche-Posay's 0.225x rests on a 0.3 vs 1.3 index, which is rounding noise. Reddit L'Oréal at 6.57x is 2 posts. In a diversified mega-cap, no single brand signal here is material or directional.

Inspect 10 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0104	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	La Roche-Posay Toleriane Double Repair Face Moisturizer \| Daily face cream with glycerin, niacinamide and cera amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'La Roche-Posay'; 51908 ratings; no prior snapshot	7	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0106	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Maybelline Lash Sensational Sky High Washable Mascara Makeup, Volumizing, Lengthening, Defining, Curling, Mult amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'Maybelline'; 189841 ratings; no prior snapshot	9	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0114	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	La Roche-Posay Toleriane Purifying Foaming Facial Cleanser with Niacinamide \| Oil free face wash for sensitive amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'La Roche-Posay'; 46216 ratings; no prior snapshot	17	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0122	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	CeraVe Daily Moisturizing Lotion, Face and Body Lotion, Skin care, 19oz \| Hyaluronic Acid, Lotion For Dry Skin amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'CeraVe'; 152754 ratings; no prior snapshot	25	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0127	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	CeraVe Foaming Facial Cleanser, Face Wash for Oily Skin, 16fl oz \| Skin Care with Hyaluronic Acid & Niacinamid amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'CeraVe'; 105362 ratings; no prior snapshot	30	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0297	Google Trends	CeraVe google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'CeraVe'	6	8.2	×0.731	Sep 29, 2026
S0304	Google Trends	La Roche-Posay google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'La Roche-Posay'	0.3	1.3	×0.225	Sep 29, 2026
S0284	Reddit	L'Oréal reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/MakeupAddiction: "Lashes" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wshoep/lashes/; r/MakeupAddiction: "Bringing back 2016 glam" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wqama6/bringing_back_2016_glam/	2	0.3	×6.57	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0276	Reddit	Maybelline reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/MakeupAddiction: "Smokey eyes from yesterday" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wrvcas/smokey_eyes_from_yesterday/; r/MakeupAddiction: "Bringing back 2016 glam" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wqama6/bringing_back_2016_glam/	4	2.43	×1.64	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0421	Yahoo Finance	LRLCY price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 86.58; 1m excess vs SPY -3.5pp	-4	-1.3	—	Sep 29, 2026

e.l.f. brow pencil #26 and lip liner #28 in Amazon Beauty; Reddit uptickELFS0123 S0125 S0261 S0301 S0396

The pipeline left both SKUs unmapped (a mapping gap), and both are long-standing listings (76,845 and 20,696 ratings). Reddit at 3.29x is one post. The Trends query 'e.l.f. Cosmetics' returns 0 vs 0, which points to a bad query. ELF is already up 37.4% over 3m. There is no change evidence.

Inspect 5 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0123	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	e.l.f. Instant Lift Brow Pencil, Dual-Sided, Neutral Brown \| Retractable Precision-Tip Brow Pencil with Groomi amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty no public-ticker brand match; 76845 ratings; no prior snapshot	26	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0125	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	e.l.f. Cream Glide Lip Liner, Highly-Pigmented Pencil For Shaping & Sculpting Lips, Semi-Matte Finish, Vegan & amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty no public-ticker brand match; 20696 ratings; no prior snapshot	28	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0261	Reddit	e.l.f. Cosmetics reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/MakeupAddiction: "Blue eyeshadow is my favorite 💎" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wr7i8m/blue_eyeshadow_is_my_favorite/; r/MakeupAddiction: "First indie pallet & look!!!" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wte7tk/first_indie_pallet_look/	1	0.3	×3.29	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0301	Google Trends	e.l.f. Cosmetics google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'e.l.f. Cosmetics'	0	0	—	Sep 29, 2026
S0396	Yahoo Finance	ELF price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 101.70; 1m excess vs SPY -1.9pp	-2.3	37.4	—	Sep 29, 2026

Other mapped beauty perennials (Mighty Patch #5 for CHD, The Ordinary #11/#22 for EL, Native #16 for PG, Dove #27 for UL)S0102 S0108 S0119 S0113 S0124 S0273

These are long-standing listings (65k–186k ratings) at first-run levels with no change evidence, and each brand is a minority of its parent's revenue. Reddit Estée Lauder at 3.29x is one post about a 1990s palette, which is vintage, not a purchase.

Inspect 6 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0102	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Mighty Patch Hero Cosmetics Original Nighttime Acne Pimple Patches, 75 Ct \| #1 Hydrocolloid Acne Patches, Shri amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'Hero Cosmetics'; 186209 ratings; no prior snapshot	5	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0108	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	The Ordinary Glycolic Acid 7% Exfoliating Toner, Brightening and Smoothing Daily Toner for More Even-Looking S amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'The Ordinary'; 65560 ratings; no prior snapshot	11	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0119	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	The Ordinary Niacinamide 10% + Zinc 1%, Smoothing Serum for Blemish-Prone Skin amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'The Ordinary'; 67467 ratings; no prior snapshot	22	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0113	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Native Deodorant Contains Naturally Derived Ingredients, 72 Hour Odor Control, Deodorant for Women and Men, Al amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'Native'; 119282 ratings; no prior snapshot	16	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0124	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Dove Deep Moisture Body Wash, 30.6 oz Pump, Sulfate Free \| Dove Deep Moisture Body Wash hydrates dry skin for amazon_bestseller_rank_beauty brand match 'Dove'; 86715 ratings; no prior snapshot	27	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0273	Reddit	Estée Lauder reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/MakeupAddiction: "I got this Estée Lauder palette from the 90’s and I am so obsessed" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wqj4ui/i_got_this_estée_lauder_palette_from_the_90s_and/; r/MakeupAddiction: "Too faced Peach Perfect concealers" https://www.reddit.com/r/MakeupAddiction/comments/1wtq1jz/too_faced_peach_perfect_concealers/	1	0.3	×3.29	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT

Fresh produce in the Amazon Grocery top 30 (Instacart competitive read)CARTS0190 S0191 S0200 S0201 S0206 S0207 S0212 S0217 S0369

Seven fresh-produce listings (#3, #4, #13, #14, #19, #20, #25) plus Amazon's frozen private-label brownies (#30) suggest demand for Amazon perishables. However, the listings carry 43k–91k ratings, meaning they are long-standing, there is no baseline, and Amazon's perishables push was public in 2025 (recollection). CART's 1m drop of 13.9% suggests the fear is already expressed. The effect on AMZN is immaterial at its scale.

Inspect 9 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0190	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Medium Hass Avocado amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 47165 ratings; no prior snapshot	3	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0191	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Banana Bunch (4-5 Count) amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 80162 ratings; no prior snapshot	4	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0200	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Organic Banana Bunch (4-5 Count) amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 43528 ratings; no prior snapshot	13	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0201	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Blueberries, 1 Pint amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 61309 ratings; no prior snapshot	14	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0206	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Strawberries, 1 Lb amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 91057 ratings; no prior snapshot	19	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0207	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Banana Bunch (4-5 Count) amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 51063 ratings; no prior snapshot	20	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0212	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Wonderful Halos Mandarins, Sweet, Seedless, Easy Peel Mandarin Oranges - Healthy Food, Fresh Fruit, 3lb Bag amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery no public-ticker brand match; 59063 ratings; no prior snapshot	25	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0217	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Amazon Grocery, Two Bite Brownies, 11.4 Oz, Frozen amazon_bestseller_rank_grocery brand match 'Amazon'; 2472 ratings; no prior snapshot	30	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0369	Yahoo Finance	CART price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 43.49; 1m excess vs SPY -13.5pp	-13.9	-8.2	—	Sep 29, 2026

Squishy/fidget toy cluster (NeeDoh advent #1, Crayola Globbles #4, squishy packs #5, Gelli Gels #7, Taba #27)S0158 S0161 S0162 S0164 S0184

This is the clearest cross-sectional toy behavior in the data, but none of the brands maps to a universe ticker. These are first-run levels with seasonal advent-calendar effects.

Inspect 5 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0158	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Schylling NeeDoh Squishmas Advent Calendar (Pack of 1) \| Christmas Countdown with 24 Mini Squeeze Toys amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; no prior snapshot	1	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0161	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Crayola Globbles Fidget Toy (6ct), Sticky Stress Ball for Adults & Kids, Squishy Balls, Calming Sensory Gifts amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; 21028 ratings; no prior snapshot	4	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0162	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	30 Pack Squishy Toys, Kawaii Squishies Party Favors for Kids 4-8 8-12 Treasure Box Toys for Classroom Birthday amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; 5109 ratings; no prior snapshot	5	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0164	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Horizon Group USA Slimygloop Gelli Gels, Blue Squishmallows \| Slow-Flow Glitter Squishy Sensory Toys, Squeeze amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; 1069 ratings; no prior snapshot	7	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0184	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	Handmade Taba Squishy Hamster Toy, Cute Squishy Stress Relief Fidget Toy \| CUTE SQUEEZE Soft Non-toxic Silicon amazon_bestseller_rank_toys no public-ticker brand match; 1759 ratings; no prior snapshot	27	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT

Jelly bras (OEAK #2 and LetsJoli #15 in Amazon Fashion)S0129 S0142

These are Amazon-native private brands. A read-through to Victoria's Secret has no price row in the data (VSCO is missing from yfinance; do not infer its status) and would rest on first-run levels.

Inspect 2 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0129	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	OEAK Womens Jelly Bras Wireless Deep V Bralette Comfy Push Up Tshirt Bras \| Comfortable,support and lift,no un amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion no public-ticker brand match; 15296 ratings; no prior snapshot	2	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0142	Amazon Best Sellers / Movers	LetsJoli Jelly Bras for Women No Underwire Plus Size Push Up Supportive \| Full Coverage, Wireless Support Lift amazon_bestseller_rank_fashion no public-ticker brand match; 24062 ratings; no prior snapshot	15	—	—	fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT

Kalshi #15 top freeS0017 S0408

There is no public mapping, and the rank is driven by the football season. A read-through to HOOD, which is both a prediction-market partner and a competitor, is an unverified hypothesis of ambiguous sign; HOOD is up 11.5% over 1m.

Inspect 2 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0017	Apple App Store charts	Kalshi: Trade Football & more appstore_us_top_free_rank developer KalshiEX LLC; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	15	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0408	Yahoo Finance	HOOD price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 116.22; 1m excess vs SPY +11.9pp	11.5	15.9	—	Sep 29, 2026

Netflix Game Controller #17 top freeNFLXS0019 S0052 S0431

This is unusually high for a companion app, but the cause is unknown from data. Games are not separately monetized, so it is immaterial to revenue. It is a first-run level, and NFLX's 1m drop of 14% has causes not observed here.

Inspect 3 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0019	Apple App Store charts	Netflix Game Controller appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Netflix, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Netflix'; no prior snapshot (first run)	17	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0052	Apple App Store charts	Netflix appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Netflix, Inc.; app name matches brand 'Netflix'; no prior snapshot (first run)	76	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0431	Yahoo Finance	NFLX price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 70.30; 1m excess vs SPY -13.6pp	-14	-1.5	—	Sep 29, 2026

Other unmapped top-free apps (PLAYFUL REWARDS #4, Freecash #6, TikTok Pro - Events #7, PineDrama #11, StoryReel #19)S0006 S0008 S0009 S0013 S0021 S0357

None map to the universe. Rewards apps typically reflect paid or incentivized installs, and any AppLovin read-through is an unverified hypothesis (APP is down 40.7% over 3m, cause unknown). The short-drama and TikTok-family ranks are first-run levels with unknown causes.

Inspect 6 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0006	Apple App Store charts	PLAYFUL REWARDS: Earn Rewards appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Playful Rewards; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	4	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0008	Apple App Store charts	Freecash - Get Paid Real Money appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Freecash - Get Paid Real Money; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	6	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0009	Apple App Store charts	TikTok Pro - Events appstore_us_top_free_rank developer TikTok Ltd.; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	7	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0013	Apple App Store charts	PineDrama - Short Dramas appstore_us_top_free_rank developer TikTok Ltd.; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	11	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0021	Apple App Store charts	StoryReel: Drama Shorts & TV appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Equinox Enterprises‌ Technology Limited; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	19	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0357	Yahoo Finance	APP price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 305.66; 1m excess vs SPY -3.4pp	-3.8	-40.7	—	Sep 29, 2026

Fast-food Reddit chatter (McDonald's AI pricing and bag fee, Burger King nuggets, Wendy's band stunt)S0246 S0256 S0296 S0232 S0266 S0305 S0275 S0426

These are news items, complaints and single anecdotes, with 0–1 recent posts each. Trends are flat (McDonald's 1.01x, Burger King 0.967x). This is attention, not traffic, and the broad 1m decline in restaurant stocks (e.g., MCD down 11.1%) has no explanation in this data.

Inspect 8 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0246	Reddit	Big Mac reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/fastfood: "Inside McDonald’s push to have AI price your Big Mac. McDonald’s is increasingly using art" https://www.reddit.com/r/fastfood/comments/1wtphse/inside_mcdonalds_push_to_have_ai_price_your_big/	0	1.22	×0	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0256	Reddit	McDonald's reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/fastfood: "@Mcdonalds charged me 25 cents for a take out bag! This is insane." https://www.reddit.com/r/fastfood/comments/1wsg3ax/mcdonalds_charged_me_25_cents_for_a_take_out_bag/	0	1.52	×0	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0296	Google Trends	McDonald's google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'McDonald's'	66.4	65.8	×1.01	Sep 29, 2026
S0232	Reddit	They weren't lying these are fire now. Burger king reddit_recent_post_position_in_top_month r/fastfood; 2.1d old; excerpt: I've said forever BKs nuggets and sauces were so far behind everywhere else it was sad. Now they're all amazing wtf they weren't lyin submitted by /u/BrayIsRea	16	—	—	Sep 27, 2026, 9:58 PM EDT
S0266	Reddit	Burger King reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/fastfood: "They weren't lying these are fire now. Burger king" https://www.reddit.com/r/fastfood/comments/1ws224x/they_werent_lying_these_are_fire_now_burger_king/	1	1.22	×0.82	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0305	Google Trends	Burger King google_trends_us_7d_avg_vs_prior_3m_avg (index 0-100) query 'Burger King'	4.6	4.7	×0.967	Sep 29, 2026
S0275	Reddit	Wendy's reddit_posts_mentioning_7d_vs_prior23d_weekly (top/month sample) r/fastfood: "Fast-Food Chain Wendy's Enlist Silverstein, Blessthefall, Memphis May Fire, Etc. Members F" https://www.reddit.com/r/fastfood/comments/1wocbqn/fastfood_chain_wendys_enlist_silverstein/	1	0.3	×3.29	Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
S0426	Yahoo Finance	MCD price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 233.98; 1m excess vs SPY -10.7pp	-11.1	-12.8	—	Sep 29, 2026

AI photo/video creator apps (Momo #5, AI Maker #22) vs AdobeADBES0007 S0024 S0096 S0352

These are unmapped third-party apps at first-run levels. 'AI disrupts Adobe' is a well-known narrative, and ADBE is already down 20.0% over 1m. Consumer mobile apps are a small part of Adobe's revenue (Acrobat Reader is #89 grossing). There is no change evidence.

Inspect 4 rejected evidence rows & timestamps

Row	Source	Signal	Now	Base	Ratio	As of
S0007	Apple App Store charts	Momo: AI Photo & Video Maker appstore_us_top_free_rank developer SCALEUP YAZILIM HIZMETLERI; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	5	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0024	Apple App Store charts	AI Maker: Photo Video Filters appstore_us_top_free_rank developer Hungry Birds; no public-ticker mapping; no prior snapshot (first run)	22	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0096	Apple App Store charts	Acrobat Reader: PDF Editor appstore_us_top_grossing_rank developer Adobe Inc.; developer 'Adobe Inc.' matches Adobe; no prior snapshot (first run)	89	—	—	Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
S0352	Yahoo Finance	ADBE price_return_1m (current) vs 3m (baseline) close 233.17; 1m excess vs SPY -19.6pp	-20	13.7	—	Sep 29, 2026

Sources this run

Manual snapshot, not a live feed. Partial sources do not imply full coverage. Exported Sep 30, 2026, 1:26 AM EDT. GitHub, Hugging Face and Product Hunt were not collected.

Wikipedia pageviewspartial
2 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:54 AM EDT
Source as-of: daily pageviews through 20260929 (UTC)
2 mapped rows · 2 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
Ownership mapping remains provisional; pageview retrieval does not verify parent ownership.; Pilot collection stopped early: 3/366 titles attempted; time budget or consecutive failures.; 1 titles failed
Apple App Store chartsok
95 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
Source as-of: top-free updated Wed, 30 Sep 2026 04:37:41 +0000; top-grossing updated 2026-09-29T21:37:43-07:00
62 mapped rows · 0 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
top-grossing: new RSS HTTP 404, using legacy iTunes RSS; reused existing same-day raw cache; no refetch
Amazon Best Sellers / Moverspartial
120 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:37 AM EDT
Source timestamp unavailable; fetch time is not event time.
37 mapped rows · 0 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
movers_shakers:beauty: degraded, page served without product grid (0 items); not retried; movers_shakers:fashion: degraded, page served without product grid (0 items); not retried; movers_shakers:toys: degraded, page served without product grid (0 items); not retried; movers_shakers:grocery: degraded, page served without product grid (0 items); not retried; Amazon exposes no list timestamp; fetch time only. Best Sellers updates hourly.; reused existing same-day raw cache; no refetch
Redditpartial
67 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
Source as-of: top_month:beauty 2026-09-30T04:37:50+00:00; top_month:footwear_apparel 2026-09-30T04:38:04+00:00; top_month:restaurants 2026-09-30T04:39:03+00:00 ...
43 mapped rows · 25 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
Requested Reddit public rising JSON returned HTTP 403; collected public RSS top/month and new fallback instead.; Weekly-scaled mention ratios can amplify a baseline of only one post. These are biased attention samples, not measured customer adoption.; Required public rising JSON probe HTTP 403; RSS used separately and is not JSON collection
Google Trendsok
25 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT
Source as-of: daily index through 2026-09-29
25 mapped rows · 25 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
Hacker Newsok
40 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:48 AM EDT
Source as-of: Sep 30, 2026, 12:02 AM EDT
0 mapped rows · 0 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
40 top-story sample; headline matches only; no prior baseline; attention not adoption
Yahoo Finance pricespartial
138 signals · fetched Sep 30, 2026, 12:48 AM EDT
Source as-of: daily closes through 2026-09-29
138 mapped rows · 138 with a baseline (price rows are price context, not behavior evidence)
no data: ['EWCZ', 'OLPX', 'VSCO']

Research price tracking · not trading performance

Tracking starts Sep 30, 2026. Eight-week review dates shown; results are not yet evaluated.

No trades were placed. Research candidates are not recommendations, and no realized returns, hit rate or strategy performance are claimed. A later close is required before a price move can be measured.

Logged	Ticker	Call	Thesis	Price logged	Price now	Move	SPY	Review due
Sep 30, 2026	MAT	Research · no tradelow	KPop Demon Hunters' likely first full holiday season with Mattel-made dolls could be an under-modeled Q4 driver. A Rumi 'Golden' singing doll already ranks #22 in all of Amazon Toys. This is a baseline to track, not proof of acceleration or of an expectations gap.	$13.22 Sep 29, 2026	$13.22 Sep 29, 2026	—	—	Nov 25, 2026
Sep 30, 2026	GIL	Research · no tradelow	Hanes and Gildan value basics hold 7 of the top 30 Amazon Fashion bestseller slots at the end of September, while GIL fell 19.4% in a month. Research whether the selloff is driven by consumer demand, in which case this data is a partial counterpoint, before the 2026-10-29 print.	$42.79 Sep 29, 2026	$42.79 Sep 29, 2026	—	—	Nov 25, 2026

Move is raw price change since the logged close, not direction-adjusted. Prices are daily closes from Yahoo Finance as of the archived snapshot used by the last export. Same-day closes are not an evaluated result; fees, dividends and execution are not modeled.

The model's notes on data quality

All App Store and Amazon rows are first-run levels with no prior snapshot, so they cannot show growth, launch dates or behavior change. Both ideas are baselines to re-test on the next runs.
Amazon Movers & Shakers (beauty, fashion, toys, grocery) returned 0 items, so there is no Amazon velocity data. The bestseller lists are dominated by perennial listings with tens to hundreds of thousands of ratings.
Wikipedia stopped at 3/366 titles (1 failed). The two usable rows are flat (7 Up 1.001x, Abercrombie & Fitch 0.895x), so there is effectively no Wikipedia coverage today.
Google Trends values appear to be normalized against very high-volume terms (eBay 75.9, McDonald's 66.4, Costco 66.1, Walmart 61), which compresses small brands to 0–1.3 index points. Ratios for Tommy Hilfiger, Levi's, Big Mac, Rimmel, Nike Vaporfly, e.l.f. (0 vs 0), La Roche-Posay, Urban Decay, IT Cosmetics, MAC, Too Faced and Vaseline are rounding noise. Many larger queries drift to 0.82–0.93x, consistent with a summer/back-to-school base period.
Reddit 7d-vs-prior-23d ratios rest on 0–13 posts. With a 0.3/week floor, one post reads as 3.29x (Rimmel, e.l.f., Estée Lauder, Wendy's, Taco Bell, Nike Air Max) and 3–4 posts read as about 10–13x (Instagram, Pinterest). Subreddits named after a brand inflate newest-100 counts (r/starbucks gives 78). All Reddit rows are attention, not purchases.
Mapping error: S0092 ('LIGHTSPEED INTELLIGENCE LTD' mapped to INTC) is a substring false positive. Products likely owned by universe companies were left unmapped (verify before use): e.l.f. S0123/S0125 to ELF; Play-Doh S0176 to HAS; Softsoap S0120 to CL; Q-tips S0118 to UL; Core Power Elite S0197 to KO; Propel S0211 to PEP; Google-developer apps S0010/S0018/S0022/S0026/S0079 to GOOGL; LinkedIn S0077 and Candy Crush S0078 to MSFT.
Ownership and transaction caveats (recollection, unverified): Hanes-to-GIL depends on completion of Gildan's Hanesbrands acquisition; the Depop-to-ETSY mapping may be stale; KVUE prices like a proxy for a Kimberly-Clark deal; WBD and PSKY may be M&A-driven; Monopoly GO and Pokémon GO are Scopely-developed licenses; Pokémon economics reach Nintendo through an affiliate.
Price context: SPY was about -0.4% over 1m (implied by the excess-return column), while 51 of 138 priced tickers fell more than 10%, e.g., PLAY -31.0%, FNKO -24.9%, PTLO -24.5%, BLMN -23.8%, BROS -23.7%, GIL -19.4%. The cause is unknown from data, so single-name weakness is not stock-specific evidence of an expectations gap.
yfinance is partial: there are no price rows for EWCZ, OLPX or VSCO; do not infer their listing status. Large 1m moves (AMD +30.5%, INTC +29.6%, META +27.9%, SG +25.4%) have no consumer-signal support in this dataset.
The earnings calendar is incomplete or stale: UL shows 2026-07-28, which has already passed, and many tickers (e.g., ETSY, CART, HAS, NFLX) have no date. NKE reports on 2026-10-01, which supersedes any Nike read here.
Top-grossing ranks came from the legacy iTunes RSS feed (the new RSS returned 404) through a reused same-day cache, so treat them as approximate.
Tech coverage: HN is a 40-story headline sample with zero mapped rows and no baseline. No GitHub, Hugging Face or product-launch feed was collected, so no tech adoption claims are made.
Post-analysis pipeline audit: the Intel/INTELLIGENCE developer-name false positive in S0092 was removed before delivery; whole-token matching and regression test now prevent it. Missing Reddit URL provenance was restored from captured posts/feeds. Evidence IDs and numeric values are unchanged; the original prompt/output is preserved. No watchlist candidate relies on S0092.

How the social arbitrage scanner works

Social arbitrage is the idea that you can see a change in consumer behavior (what people download, buy, search for, and talk about) before it shows up in a company's reported numbers. Each run pulls free public attention data: Wikipedia pageviews against their 90-day baseline, Apple App Store top charts, Amazon Best Sellers and Movers & Shakers, Reddit, and Google Trends, then maps brands and products to their public parent companies.

An AI model reads the full signal table alongside recent price moves and upcoming earnings dates. It must cite specific evidence rows for every idea, estimate how much of the company's revenue is actually exposed, name the strongest counter-evidence and what would prove the idea wrong, and list the signals it rejected. Ideas that cite no valid evidence are removed automatically. Every research entry is logged with its available daily closing price and a proposed eight-week review date, which may differ from the model's thesis horizon. No review is scheduled automatically. Price changes are descriptive tracking, not a validated investment return or an automated verdict.

Known limits: attention is not purchases, news-driven spikes look like adoption, several sources have no history yet, and some sources block automated access on a given day. The source panel shows exactly what worked in each run.

Not investment advice. TheBRRR track record covers our separate systematic trading signals.

Social Arbitrage Scanner

Today's research

Evidence-to-trade brief

What blocks a trade thesis

Next evidence to collect

Evidence-to-trade brief

What blocks a trade thesis

Next evidence to collect

Rejected signals

Sources this run

Research price tracking · not trading performance

The model's notes on data quality

How the social arbitrage scanner works

Related stock research

Upside Ranks

AI-100

Economic Calendar

Market Pulse