5x Prob
11.1%
Entry / Current
$20.500%
Market Cap
$375.3M
Goldilox
88.5
Catalyst
69
Social
85.5
Technical
43
Earnings
35.2
Value
88
Current July edition of our asymmetric AI infrastructure bets. Ranked by calibrated probability, with Goldilox upside and small-base asymmetry acting as hard gates before a name can make the list.
Very low-probability, high-convexity trades. These are venture-like bets in public markets. Size positions accordingly — risk capital only. This list skews smaller and more volatile, with binary thesis outcomes that could drive explosive growth or significant losses.
| Rank | Stock | 5x Prob | Entry / Current | Market Cap | Goldilox | Catalyst | Social | Technical | Earnings | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | ALMU Aeluma, Inc. | 11.1% | $20.500% Entry: $20.50 | $375.3M | 88.5 | 69 | 85.5 | 43 | 35.2 | 88 |
#2 | AEHR Aehr Test Systems | 8.7% | $84.430% Entry: $84.43 | $2.7B | 90.3 | 88 | 74.4 | 43 | 25.8 | 100 |
#3 | SEI Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 7.3% | $73.420% Entry: $73.42 | $6.9B | 70 | 82 | 83.4 | 70 | 84.2 | 95 |
#4 | APLD Applied Digital Corporation | 7.2% | $35.520% Entry: $35.52 | $10.2B | 77.7 | 85 | 86.6 | 55 | 69.9 | 85 |
#5 | CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 6.8% | $259.090% Entry: $259.09 | $48.3B | 68.2 | 82 | 87.4 | 91 | 98.9 | 82.6 |
#6 | AXTI AXT, Inc. | 6.6% | $65.030% Entry: $65.03 | $4.3B | 62.3 | 78 | 81.3 | 43 | 45.6 | 95 |
#7 | TER Teradyne, Inc. | 6.5% | $427.340% Entry: $427.34 | $66.9B | 62.6 | 79 | 82.7 | 96 | 98.3 | 83.4 |
#8 | AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | 5.7% | $79.990% Entry: $79.99 | $19.8B | 73.1 | 71 | 71 | 91 | 65.7 | 90 |
#9 | AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 5.3% | $139.000% Entry: $139.00 | $11.2B | 69 | 77 | 89 | 41 | 44.5 | 85 |
#10 | PATH UiPath, Inc. | 5.0% | $11.550% Entry: $11.55 | $6.0B | 69 | 67 | 92.6 | 28 | 57.3 | 95 |
Binary outcomes: Each pick represents a specific thesis with massive upside if correct, significant downside if wrong. Position sizing is critical — never more than 2-3% portfolio weight per pick.These are 2-5 year holds where patience and conviction matter more than timing.
Each moonshot has a detailed thesis with specific catalysts and timeline. Click any ticker to see our bull case, bear case, and quant-score analysis.