Current May edition of our asymmetric AI infrastructure bets. Ranked by probability of 5x returns, with Goldilox upside acting as a hard gate before a name can make the list.
4-11% probability trades. These are venture-like bets in public markets. Size positions accordingly — risk capital only. This list skews smaller and more volatile, with a few larger names only making it when the asymmetry still looks extreme. with binary thesis outcomes that could drive explosive growth or significant losses.
| Rank | Stock | 5x Prob | Entry / Current | Market Cap | Goldilox | Catalyst | Social | Technical | Earnings | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | APLD Applied Digital Corporation | 11.1% | $33.780% Entry: $33.78 | $9.7B | 98.6 | 83 | 50.5 | 50 | 60 | 70.1 |
#2 | SEI Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 8.7% | $74.210% Entry: $74.21 | $6.9B | 67.8 | 75 | 50.5 | 60 | 85 | 72.9 |
#3 | ALMU Aeluma, Inc. | 7.3% | $19.410% Entry: $19.41 | $350M | 100 | 54 | 54.2 | 40 | 60 | 43.9 |
#4 | PATH UiPath, Inc. | 7.2% | $10.220% Entry: $10.22 | $5.4B | 98.8 | 49 | 61.6 | 0 | 95 | 86.5 |
#5 | ESTC Elastic N.V. | 6.8% | $46.030% Entry: $46.03 | $4.8B | 99.7 | 55 | 63.5 | 0 | 60 | 82.6 |
#6 | OKLO Oklo Inc. | 6.6% | $68.000% Entry: $68.00 | $11.8B | 90.3 | 65 | 61.5 | 15 | 50 | 57.1 |
#7 | AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 6.5% | $150.730% Entry: $150.73 | $12.1B | 69.1 | 68 | 49 | 70 | 50 | 38.5 |
#8 | SMR NuScale Power Corporation | 5.7% | $11.760% Entry: $11.76 | $3.8B | 100 | 62 | 51.2 | 5 | 50 | 51.8 |
#9 | CIFR Cipher Digital Inc. | 5.3% | $17.490% Entry: $17.49 | $7.1B | 76.9 | 58 | 49.8 | 40 | 50 | 65.4 |
#10 | LEU Centrus Energy Corp. | 5.0% | $197.700% Entry: $197.70 | $3.9B | 100 | 62 | 51.2 | 0 | 40 | 51.2 |
#11 | AXTI AXT, Inc. | 4.2% | $74.070% Entry: $74.07 | $4.8B | 68.8 | 42 | 59.8 | 70 | 50 | 20.5 |
Binary outcomes: Each pick represents a specific thesis with massive upside if correct, significant downside if wrong. Position sizing is critical — never more than 2-3% portfolio weight per pick.These are 2-5 year holds where patience and conviction matter more than timing.
Each moonshot has a detailed thesis with specific catalysts and timeline. Click any ticker to see our bull case, bear case, and probability analysis.