Published October 4, 2026

October Upside Ranks

Qualitative relative target-touch selections · Not calibrated probabilities

Dated prices · targets are price touches, not forecasts · exact ranks are editorial judgments.

Grade legend, dates & research limits

Completed editorial grades · assessed October 6. Business = demonstrated commercial traction. Catalyst = clarity and timing of the next important test, not success odds. Target path = how demanding this list’s target is. These grades use the same rubric for all selected names; they are not native financial-model grades or statistical probabilities.

A strong / direct · B supported but conditional · C speculative or major gaps · D exceptional leap / weak bridge. A strong catalyst can fail. A fivefold target can have a D path even in a top-ranked moonshot.

Exact grading benchmarks & evidence dates

Business

How far the business inflection is demonstrated today, not source completeness.

A — Broad, realized commercial growth or earnings; not just a plan.
B — Real but early, concentrated or mixed operating traction.
C — Primarily clinical/development or capacity optionality; limited realized economics.
D — Retained facts undermine the proposed business inflection.

Catalyst

Specificity, observability and timing of a thesis-changing test inside the original window, not its chance of success.

A — A scheduled or explicitly windowed material readout, launch or commercial ramp; repeated hard operating tests may qualify.
B — Concrete delivery, orders or earnings tests, but diffuse timing or less discrete thesis change.
C — A real milestone with important acceptance/economics/timing gaps.
D — No supported material in-window test.

Target path

Burden of reaching THIS tier target from the dated baseline; not an absolute odds estimate.

A — Comparatively direct earnings/recognition bridge in retained evidence; still conditional.
B — Recognizable bridge, but meaningful premium, execution or share-claim sensitivity.
C — Speculative extension or binary rerating beyond established economics; small-base elasticity is not a forecast.
D — Exceptional leap far beyond retained cases, with major scale/valuation/financing obstacles.

No bell curve, numeric weights, A+ grades, probability conversion or grade-based reranking. Same rubric for incumbents and additions; target-path grades vary by tier. A catalyst can fail. No synchronized chart grading because technical coverage is not comparable across all 19.

Assessment October 6 of retained evidence, not an October 6 source refresh. Baseline October 1; existing remaining touch window October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027. Original source cutoff October 3; additions retrieved October 4; Bloom narrative retrieved October 5 UTC. Original publication dates remain attached to sources.

Original conservative research grades remain in each full story. Partial financial underwriting remains partial: completed qualitative grades do not certify current cash, target dilution, clinical efficacy or funded forecasts. No chart grade is invented from unmatched technical snapshots.

Targets use October 1, 2026 baseline quotes, which are not live prices. The price-touch window is October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027, not the price at expiry. Exact ordinal differences are low-confidence editorial judgments; absolute likelihood may be low.

Original financial source cutoff: October 3, 2026, 07:14:12.687379 UTC. Biotech sources retrieved October 4 with original publication dates retained. Bloom’s power and policy narrative reviewed October 4 ET (sources retrieved October 5 UTC). Publication does not clear research or model limitations. No calibrated odds.

AAOI · Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

5x Moonshots · #6

Oct1 baseline: USD 107.32. Original frozen quote retained.

The investment story

Thesis

Expanded optical production capacity could lift shipments into AI networks, if customer qualification and manufacturing yields improve.

What could move the stock

Expanded optical production capacity could lift shipments into AI networks, if customer qualification and manufacturing yields improve.

Next catalyst

Qualification of new products and conversion of capacity into paid shipments.

Major risk

Stock-funded expansion, cash burn and uncertain prices could dilute shareholder upside.

Editorial grades · October 6 assessment

Same rubric for every selected company. Business is demonstrated traction; Catalyst is the timing and clarity of a test, not its chance of success. Target path changes with the target burden.

5x Moonshots

BusinessCCatalystBTarget pathC

Business · C

Capacity and equity financing support an optical ramp hypothesis, not proven self-funded shipment economics.

Catalyst · B

Customer qualification and production yields can unlock paid shipments; no specific future announcement day is verified.

Target path · C

Loss-to-profit optics optionality exists, but fivefold exceeds the retained capacity/margin model and needs unusually favorable funding and claims.

Strongest countercase

Stock-funded burn, qualification failures and uncertain selling prices threaten per-share upside.

Confidence & coverage

Low for target touch and adjacent ordering; moderate for the descriptive assessment of retained facts. Retained native financial and source detail preserved; existing holds and sensitivities still apply.

Grade evidence & preserved research grades

Editorial reader v2 is separate from native financial certification. The original conservative evidence/path grades below have not been upgraded or overwritten.

5x Moonshots original research grades

Evidence: B; operating pathway: C; feasibility: heroic.

financials.cash
Published: 2026-08-06 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T04:56:10.114703+00:00
components.AAOI-revenue-0
Published: 2026-02-26 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T04:57:08.013072+00:00

Detailed research, valuation assumptions & sources

Thesis

Capacity inflection and $1.028B H1 equity funding are retained evidence; funding burn via stock is not self-funded demand or margin proof.

Independent economic outcome

{"35%": "ORIGINAL-ROUTE-REJECT bull126.698544<144.882000. CONDITIONAL-WATCH alternativeASP400/yield85%/7.2Mnameplate/year gives2778.4Mrevenue andpositive35%route; capexadvances/employeecash/dilution/timingjointstresscaneraseit. UnknownASPnotuniversalreject.", "2x": "REJECT currentoriginal20%margin/35xenvelope; targetrequires materiallyhigherrevenue/margin. Notcompanycategoryreject.", "5x": "REJECT currentoriginalevidenceenvelope; targetrequiresnewmargin/capacity/multiplecase, no source-supportedadmission."}

Expectations gap

No independently matched current consensus-baseline mispricing is asserted. Optics capacity offers a relatively nonlinear loss-to-profit tail, but fivefold is outside the retained capacity/margin/multiple model. It requires extraordinary realization and favorable claims, not a claim that nameplate volume is signed orders.

Confidence and limitations

Source-backedrelativebusinesscomparison; exactadjacentorderandfutureprice realization uncertain. Lowabsolutechanceisnotanadmissionban. Qualified/limited forward evidence; low comparative confidence, especially pricing, recognition or common-owner funding. Retained actual facts remain distinct from hypotheses. Low absolute tail confidence even when actual commercial evidence is strong. Stock-wide label uses most cautious genuine parent tier judgment; per-membership judgments preserved.

Qualitative editorial likelihood ordering only; no numeric probabilities, no mechanically calibrated source grade, no issuer future assurance. Adjacent order is low-confidence within the disclosed close-comparison bands.
No calibrated absolute hit probabilities or independently matched current consensus baseline; relative ordering uses qualified evidence, not a measured expectations gap.
Ramp realization, pricing/acceptance or common-owner funding has material unquantified elements; management targets/analyst hypotheses are not delivered revenue.
Native schema/interface historical holds remain archived. Unresolved economic cash/current-capital/accounting facts lower confidence; absent adapter EPS/cashDate alone does not label issuer uninvestable.
No preserved model supports fivefold; beyond-case recognition/valuation/claim requirements remain unquantified, so absolute confidence is low and adjacent tail ranks may be tied.
Capex advances, yield, shipment qualification, employee equity cash and dilution must be financed. Equity-funded burn and ASP unknowns are ranking penalties. No new source-supported margin or throughput guarantee is introduced.

Catalysts & disconfirmation

Capacity inflection and $1.028B H1 equity funding are retained evidence; funding burn via stock is not self-funded demand or margin proof.

2026-12-01 to 2026-12-31; editorial-monitoring-checkpoint; exact future announcement dates unverified · Retainedprimaryreportedcommercialfacts supportmechanism; forwardpaidrecognition/funding notguaranteed. BnotA; no automaticnative-score conversion. · Upgrade: Confirm paid recognized delivery and common-owner economics within the retained operating window, not merely capacity/backlog/pilot publicity. Beyond all preserved base/bull cases: requires exceptional additional in-horizon recognized business and/or valuation plus financing/claim outcomes. Directional tail conditions only; no new numeric EPS, margin, capacity or multiple forecast. · Cut: Failure of the retained paid-recognition or recurring-owner-economics path, multiple compression, delayed catalyst or additional cash/claim burden would invalidate this route. Capex advances, yield, shipment qualification, employee equity cash and dilution must be financed. Equity-funded burn and ASP unknowns are ranking penalties. No new source-supported margin or throughput guarantee is introduced.

Bear case

Failure of the retained paid-recognition or recurring-owner-economics path, multiple compression, delayed catalyst or additional cash/claim burden would invalidate this route. Capex advances, yield, shipment qualification, employee equity cash and dilution must be financed. Equity-funded burn and ASP unknowns are ranking penalties. No new source-supported margin or throughput guarantee is introduced.

Retained financial routes — not target odds

Original financial hypotheses remain unchanged. Native disposition, independent WATCH and current editorial selection are distinct.

AAOI · Native blocked / Independent GENUINE_HOLD_ACCEPTED_WITH_NARROW_RATIONALE_AND_SOURCE_COVERAGE_QUALIFICATIONS

Economic outcome

Accounting and period

GAAP; actual/analyst-normalized classifications and source scope preserved individually · Exact original source measurement and forward cash windows; analysis/review dates separate · native/formula retained monetary units, no rescaling; per-field exact receipt unit used where provided

retainedEconomicModel.instrument.ADRRatio

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

retainedEconomicModel.currentFacts.dilutedEPSTTM

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

retainedEconomicModel.valuation.currentImpliedMultipleContext

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

retainedEconomicModel.valuation.sameOperationsAtCurrentMultiple.basePrice

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

retainedEconomicModel.valuation.sameOperationsAtCurrentMultiple.bullPrice

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

retainedEconomicModel.monitorWindow.officialEvent

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

Core measured historical financials — dates and attribution retained

Recognized revenue — original measurement period

595970000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · FY+YTDcurrent-YTDprior

Dated reported cash / marketable liquidity (scope below)

499737000 USD (original native monetary scale) · actual · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

debt

188057000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

Dated measured ordinary shares — NOT current fully diluted

84569237 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · actual · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Margin

-0.11310300854069835 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameperiod additiveNI/EBIT and analytical durationweighted denominator

72761255.49315068 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameperiod additiveNI/EBIT and analytical durationweighted denominator

eps

-0.7836588252022058 USD/ordinary-share · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameperiod additiveNI/EBIT and analytical durationweighted denominator

shares At

2026-08-03 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

current Ordinary Shares

84569237 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

current Valuation Shares

options Incremental Shares

0 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

convertible Incremental Shares

post Balance Cash Change

-149737000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · cashopeningidentity totalconditionalnetdelta

post Balance Debt Change

41943000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · bankacceptance+principalvsbook+conditionaldebtgap

convertible Debt Removed

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

ownership Liability

convertible Cash Settlement

post Balance Other Cash Change

-149737000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · cashopeningidentity totalconditionalnetdelta

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

cash Nci Deduction

cash Jv Contribution

cash Ownership Reconciliation

AAOI August3ordinary84569237, June84.386M vs60.183987MFY/78.789MH1/81.568MQ2weightedloss denominator;92.8M Q3nonGAAPguidance notcurrentpublicFD. 188.057Mbookdebt=57.258current+1.657noncurrent+129.142convertcarrying; principal124.925M vs129.142Mbookplus33.940Mbankacceptance gives217.780M principal/bankbaseline,230M originalconditionalopening notsourceexact. Convert23.0884/$1000=2.88431837M;2.75%coupon=3.4354375Mannually; old2026notes retiredJuly2025 notfuture claim. Q2excluded2.503MRSU+1.324MvestedAmazonwarrant; full7.945399Mwarrant23.6956strike contingent4Btenyearpurchases, not guaranteedrevenue. Model6/7/8M economicaward+warrantfutureallowance includesnetvesting/exercise; gross/withheldnotgiven, independentlybounded. June499.737Mcash/9.021Mrestricted(not6.9M); retainedopening350M implies149.737Minterimnetuse hypothesis. Sept15factorylease38,311.8m2,10yearsfromSep16,RMB6896124annualrent/3monthrentfree; lease NOT governance-only orfunding. USDcashrent unknownFXnotzero; included modelGAAPopex hypothesis and +-2M incrementalstress, no operatinglease78.143M principal asfinancialdebt. H1netstockoffering1028.207MalreadyinJune common/cash; no additionalcredit. H1employee71.163Mwithholding realpaidfinancinguse vsnet1.610Mdeliveredawards; equipmentprepayments289.744M ADDITIONALto335.132M PP&E, cannotdoubledebitfuture reclassification/assumeallcapexcashcomplete. All futurecapital, stockcontinuity, ownership1/JVadd0/outsideclaim0 nominalinputs are reviewedconditional hypotheses not unknown-as-zeroissuerfacts; stress trapping10%,outsideclaims/leaseprincipal andfunding/timing delays. ExactOctoberbank/currentfullydilutedshares/physicalcapacitycertificate neither demanded nor asserted. Fullprovidedsource/model reviewed; positivefundingnotclosed guarantee. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · literal report identity plus explicit conditional measured-only bridge

Material Provided valuation

sector

optical networking manufacturing text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · faithfuloriginalEVsales/earningsmetricproposal

metric

P/normalizedEPS text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · faithfuloriginalEVsales/earningsmetricproposal

reference Multiple

35 x · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · faithfuloriginalEVsales/earningsmetricproposal

multiple Low

25 x · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · faithfuloriginalEVsales/earningsmetricproposal

multiple High

35 x · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · faithfuloriginalEVsales/earningsmetricproposal

justification

AAOI Originalconditional GAAPownerNI P/E25/35/35xloss-to-profit, nointerest/cash-doublecapitalization; original forecastnotmarketconsensus. Historicalspotmultiple notfairvalue, premiumrange conditionalnotpeer-certified. CurrentnegativeGAAPNI cannotmanufacturepositivecurrentP/E. SourcecurrencygenericNBIStextcorrectedUSDwithoutchangingoriginalmodel. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · faithfuloriginalEVsales/earningsmetricproposal

model Fit

unsupported text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · executedcompletefaithfulnessdecision, notsectorclassificationorunfinishedresearch

equity Pricing Scope

owners-metric-all-assets-no-cash-delta text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · allassetsownerincomepricing

equity Pricing Rationale

AAOI Originalconditional GAAPownerNI P/E25/35/35xloss-to-profit, nointerest/cash-doublecapitalization; original forecastnotmarketconsensus. Historicalspotmultiple notfairvalue, premiumrange conditionalnotpeer-certified. CurrentnegativeGAAPNI cannotmanufacturepositivecurrentP/E. SourcecurrencygenericNBIStextcorrectedUSDwithoutchangingoriginalmodel. P/E NIalreadyincludesnetinterest; netcash/debtcannotaddagain. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · allassetsownerincomepricing

reported Amount

-57020000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

exclusions

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

normalized Amount

-57020000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

ownership Fraction

1 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

nci Deduction

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

jv Contribution

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

attributable Amount

-57020000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

annual Period

2025-07-01/2026-06-30 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

reconciliation

AAOI Originalconditional GAAPownerNI P/E25/35/35xloss-to-profit, nointerest/cash-doublecapitalization; original forecastnotmarketconsensus. Historicalspotmultiple notfairvalue, premiumrange conditionalnotpeer-certified. CurrentnegativeGAAPNI cannotmanufacturepositivecurrentP/E. SourcecurrencygenericNBIStextcorrectedUSDwithoutchangingoriginalmodel. No unearnedpositivecurrentnormalization; actualTTM -57.020M. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · actualTTMNI no artificialexclusions

eps Reported Precision

2 count · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · originalreportper-shareprecision2; analyticalTTMratio notissuerreportedTTMEPS

AAOI August3ordinary84569237, June84.386M vs60.183987MFY/78.789MH1/81.568MQ2weightedloss denominator;92.8M Q3nonGAAPguidance notcurrentpublicFD. 188.057Mbookdebt=57.258current+1.657noncurrent+129.142convertcarrying; principal124.925M vs129.142Mbookplus33.940Mbankacceptance gives217.780M principal/bankbaseline,230M originalconditionalopening notsourceexact. Convert23.0884/$1000=2.88431837M;2.75%coupon=3.4354375Mannually; old2026notes retiredJuly2025 notfuture claim. Q2excluded2.503MRSU+1.324MvestedAmazonwarrant; full7.945399Mwarrant23.6956strike contingent4Btenyearpurchases, not guaranteedrevenue. Model6/7/8M economicaward+warrantfutureallowance includesnetvesting/exercise; gross/withheldnotgiven, independentlybounded. June499.737Mcash/9.021Mrestricted(not6.9M); retainedopening350M implies149.737Minterimnetuse hypothesis. Sept15factorylease38,311.8m2,10yearsfromSep16,RMB6896124annualrent/3monthrentfree; lease NOT governance-only orfunding. USDcashrent unknownFXnotzero; included modelGAAPopex hypothesis and +-2M incrementalstress, no operatinglease78.143M principal asfinancialdebt. H1netstockoffering1028.207MalreadyinJune common/cash; no additionalcredit. H1employee71.163Mwithholding realpaidfinancinguse vsnet1.610Mdeliveredawards; equipmentprepayments289.744M ADDITIONALto335.132M PP&E, cannotdoubledebitfuture reclassification/assumeallcapexcashcomplete. All futurecapital, stockcontinuity, ownership1/JVadd0/outsideclaim0 nominalinputs are reviewedconditional hypotheses not unknown-as-zeroissuerfacts; stress trapping10%,outsideclaims/leaseprincipal andfunding/timing delays. ExactOctoberbank/currentfullydilutedshares/physicalcapacitycertificate neither demanded nor asserted. Fullprovidedsource/model reviewed; positivefundingnotclosed guarantee. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

0 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

2 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

kind

analyst-assumption text · not-applicable · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

hypothetical

true boolean · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

common Cash

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

debt

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

ownership Liability

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Owner-profit / cash / claims / valuation — compact original cases and measured history

ordinary Shares Outstanding

84.569237 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash And Equivalents

499.737 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

financial Debt

188.057 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Lease Liabilities

78.143 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Cash Flow

-73.781 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Capex

335.132 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

revenue TTM

595.9699999999999 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

diluted EPSTTM

Unknown (null) USD/share · unknown · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

simple Cash Flow After Cash Capex

-408.913 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Q3 Revenue Guidance

[255, 290] retained explanatory text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Q3 Guided Diluted Shares

92.8 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

H1 Equity Offering Proceeds

1028.207 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Recognized revenue — original measurement period

455.715 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

-54.602 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

diluted EPS

-0.64 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

EPSweighted Shares

60.183987 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Margin

-0.1198161131408885 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

TTMRevenue

595.97 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

dated Common

84.569237 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

dated At

2026-08-03 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — currentEconomicRange

89 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — currentEconomicRange

94 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — sourceIds

AAOI-10Q text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — sourceIds

AAOI-Q2 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

convertible Debt

124.925m principal*23.0884/1000=2.884m common;43.31conversion. Primary PE conservatively fully converts and uses interest addback; no debt claim also applied in PE. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

potential SBC

Q2 excluded2.503mRSUs+1.324mvestedAmazonwarrants+2.884mconvert; fullAmazon7.945399mwarrants23.6956strike vest contingent $4b purchases in10years, not guaranteedsales. Scenario equityraises separate. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

balance At

2026-06-30 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Dated reported cash / marketable liquidity (scope below)

499.737 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

restricted Cash

6.9 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

debt Carrying

188.057 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

bank Acceptance

33.94 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Lease Liability

78.143 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Post Financing Bridge

No postbalance completed issuance found inselectedSeptember8K (governance notfunding). Modelopening350/230 assumes149.737cashnetspend andincludesbankacceptance. Cashstress[200,500]; not claimed observedOctcash. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Timing

Newdebt/equity amountsareanalystcapacity-fundingrequirementsnotissuercommitments/provenclosedfunding. Openingcashestimates+stressrangesnotstrictactualupper/lowerbounds becauseothercashflowsunpublished; disclosedpostbalanceproformaas-before-deploymentonly. Restrictedcashexcludedfromfreeliquidity. Allfinanceissuepricesassumepre-terminalclosing,stress10%dilutionnotproofcapitalavailable. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple Uncertainty

OnlySMCIDEllPE andCRWV/NBISforwardcloudcross-check/DLRownerFFOcontextdated. MatchedAAOIfutureGAAPmargin/SEIrentalpeer/stabilizedAPLDNOIcomparables notindependentlyestablished; theirvaluationrangesassumptions. Noeligible tier reliesonunprovedpremium. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

target Price

144.88199958801272 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Shares

97.27173718818182 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Annual Valuation Metric

4.139485702514649 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Annual Revenue

2673.9443852515446 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Cash Assumption

359.44000000000005 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

post Conversion Net Debt

-204.36500000000007 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

outside And Senior Claim

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Revenue To Bull Modeled

1.1378486745751253 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

target Price

214.63999938964844 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Shares

required Annual Valuation Metric

6.132571411132813 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Annual Revenue

3916.70662398377 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Cash Assumption

359.44000000000005 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

post Conversion Net Debt

-204.36500000000007 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

outside And Senior Claim

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Revenue To Bull Modeled

1.6666836697803276 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

target Price

536.5999984741211 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Shares

required Annual Valuation Metric

15.331428527832031 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Annual Revenue

9652.532341209426 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Cash Assumption

359.44000000000005 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

post Conversion Net Debt

-204.36500000000007 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

outside And Senior Claim

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

required Revenue To Bull Modeled

4.107460570727415 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

49.864360974955794 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.5353674886624079 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

391.8744 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

391.8744 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

195.48 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

61.97124158302004 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.42255645024933075 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

425.7576 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

407.50440000000003 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

238.92 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

45.82873410560104 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.5729711681334336 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

380.58 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

380.58 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

180.99999999999997 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

66.00686845237479 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.38495277077830503 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

437.052 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

409.938 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

253.39999999999998 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

42.47083628114107 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.604259817350807 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

408.816 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

403.854 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

217.2 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

95.069237 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

64.3054714708361 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.40080626487424975 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

408.816 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

403.854 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

217.2 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

50.97080797659614 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.5250576954758011 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

408.816 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

403.854 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

330 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

217.2 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

107.46047907 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

54.63576511883379 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.4909078897298139 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

292.728 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

292.728 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

300 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

217.2 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Threshold State

consistent text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

analyststressnotforecast text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

250.37400000000002 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Quarter End Cash

250.37400000000002 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt

300 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

operating Income

162.89999999999998 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

104.5761607 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Shortfall To Zero

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

55.91780127898791 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

321.316 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

firstorder mechanicalnotexactconvertstate;PEcashdoesnothitpricebeforeinterest/refidilution text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

55.91780127898791 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

firstorder mechanicalnotexactconvertstate;refiintereststressseparate text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

low Revenue

1860.4 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

high Revenue

2778.4 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

formula

Annualacceptednameplate7.2m*85%*ASP+legacy330.4m; yieldsarenotpublicactuals. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

conversion Convention Caution

Sensitivityoriginalgross-all-conversionconvention retainedfortransparentstressonly; belowstrike canoverstateequitybyassumingunrationaleconversion. Eligiblelistisblocked; useprimaryconsistentstateprices, notthissensitivityasapproval. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price

50.834364799079914 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

price Return

-0.5263290631416995 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

107.74891090700001 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

additional Cash

0 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

note

Exact10%totaldilutionallsecurities;noassumedfinancingcash; separatecommon+10%instrumentstate stressabove. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

sector Metric

PE text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

current Implied Multiple Context

Unknown (null) valuation multiple x · unknown · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

context Denominator

-0.64 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

context Limitations

LatestdatedcapitalnotliveOctEV; TTMhistoricalforlossmakersNEITHERfairmultiple norcomparableforward. APLDhistoricalNOIstub90.388nonstabilized;SEI880quarterguideannualizedcontextNOTannualactual. Cannotcallallimpliedmultiplesnormalizedfairvalue. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

base Price

Unknown (null) valuation multiple x · unknown · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

bull Price

Unknown (null) valuation multiple x · unknown · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

nonqualifying If Loss PEOr Stub Multiple

AAOInone;APLDTTMstubmultipleintentionallynoteligible text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple Evidence

DatedpeerreferencesretainedDELLprice541.74/FY27GAAPguide24.37=22.23x;DLR176.49/8.175ex-promoteFFO=21.59x; CRWVnewguideforwardEVsales~6.14xwithJuneEV78599.6/12800. NBIS8xstretchpremiumneedsmargindelivery,notpeerproven. Sectorcomparisondoesnotestablishexactfairmultiple. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — normalizedMultipleRange

25 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — normalizedMultipleRange

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

2 — normalizedMultipleRange

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

reference Equity Value

9075.970489031517 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Recognized revenue — original measurement period

1340 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

GAAPOperating Margin

-0.02 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

GAAPOperating Income

-26.8 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Taxes

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

net Income Recurring

-44.8 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

SBCexpense And Cash Addback

80 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

net Cash Interest

18 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

working Capital Cash Absorption

130 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

deferred Revenue Net Cash Change

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Capex Including Refresh

450 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

FCFAfter Total Capex

-479.8 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

opening Cash Assumption

350 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

opening Debt Assumption

230 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

new Debt Assumption

150 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

new Equity Cash

350 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

equity Issue Price

75 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

incremental Financing Shares

4.666666666666667 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

SBCand Warrant Share Allowance

6 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

preferred Or Common Dividend Cash

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

320.2 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt Before Hypothetical Conversion

330 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt After Hypothetical Conversion

330 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

convert Shares

0 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

common Shares Before Convert

95.23590366666667 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

terminal Senior Or Outside Claim

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple

25 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Status

requires incremental financing not yetclosed text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Bridge Formula

NI + D&A + SBC - WCabsorption + deferredRevenueDelta = OCF; cashEnd = cashStart+OCF-capex+newDebt-debtRepay+newEquity-dividend; interest/tax alreadyinsideNI; capex deductedonce; restrictedcashneveradded. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

liquidity Survival

conditional funded only if modeled capital closes text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash After Maintenance Refresh Estimate

-99.8 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

refresh Maintenance Included In Total Capex

true boolean · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

additional Funding To Minimum200m Buffer

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rescue Equity Shares At Assumed Issue Price

0 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

downside — Signed financial cash/revenue path

[{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.0","value":300,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.1","value":320,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.2","value":350,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.3","value":370,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.0","value":398.25,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.1","value":393.6,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.2","value":358.35,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.3","value":320.20000000000005,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"minimumQuarterEndCash","value":320.20000000000005,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"}] Each signed value retains its explicit original unit and period/scope in the compact financial path · forecast · Qualification Q5 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Recognized revenue — original measurement period

1810 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

GAAPOperating Margin

0.12 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

GAAPOperating Income

217.2 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Taxes

43.384 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

net Income Recurring

153.81599999999997 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

SBCexpense And Cash Addback

100 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

net Cash Interest

20 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

working Capital Cash Absorption

180 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

deferred Revenue Net Cash Change

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Capex Including Refresh

550 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

FCFAfter Total Capex

-391.184 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

opening Cash Assumption

350 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

opening Debt Assumption

230 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

new Debt Assumption

150 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

new Equity Cash

350 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

equity Issue Price

100 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

incremental Financing Shares

3.5 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

SBCand Warrant Share Allowance

7 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

preferred Or Common Dividend Cash

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

408.816 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt Before Hypothetical Conversion

330 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt After Hypothetical Conversion

205.075 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

convert Shares

2.88431837 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

common Shares Before Convert

95.069237 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

97.95355537 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

terminal Senior Or Outside Claim

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Status

requires incremental financing not yetclosed text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Bridge Formula

liquidity Survival

conditional funded only if modeled capital closes text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash After Maintenance Refresh Estimate

88.81599999999997 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

refresh Maintenance Included In Total Capex

true boolean · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

additional Funding To Minimum200m Buffer

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rescue Equity Shares At Assumed Issue Price

0 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

base — Signed financial cash/revenue path

[{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.0","value":390,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.1","value":430,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.2","value":480,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.3","value":510,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.0","value":403.854,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.1","value":413.952,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.2","value":408.73,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.3","value":408.81600000000003,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"minimumQuarterEndCash","value":403.854,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"}] Each signed value retains its explicit original unit and period/scope in the compact financial path · forecast · Qualification Q5 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Recognized revenue — original measurement period

2350 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

GAAPOperating Margin

0.2 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

GAAPOperating Income

470 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Taxes

98.56 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

net Income Recurring

349.44 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

SBCexpense And Cash Addback

110 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

net Cash Interest

22 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

working Capital Cash Absorption

210 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

deferred Revenue Net Cash Change

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Capex Including Refresh

600 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

FCFAfter Total Capex

-240.55999999999995 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

opening Cash Assumption

350 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

opening Debt Assumption

230 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

new Debt Assumption

100 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

new Equity Cash

200 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

equity Issue Price

110 USD/share · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

incremental Financing Shares

1.8181818181818181 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

SBCand Warrant Share Allowance

8 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

preferred Or Common Dividend Cash

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Cash

359.44000000000005 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt Before Hypothetical Conversion

280 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Debt After Hypothetical Conversion

155.075 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

convert Shares

2.88431837 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

common Shares Before Convert

94.38741881818181 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

end Economic Shares

terminal Senior Or Outside Claim

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

multiple

35 valuation multiple x · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

funding Status

requires incremental financing not yetclosed text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash Bridge Formula

liquidity Survival

conditional funded only if modeled capital closes text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

cash After Maintenance Refresh Estimate

289.44000000000005 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

refresh Maintenance Included In Total Capex

true boolean · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

additional Funding To Minimum200m Buffer

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rescue Equity Shares At Assumed Issue Price

0 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

bull — Signed financial cash/revenue path

[{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.0","value":510,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.1","value":570,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.2","value":620,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterlyRecognizedRevenue.3","value":650,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.0","value":340.27,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.1","value":324.9,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.2","value":332.33,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"quarterEndCashAssumption.3","value":359.44,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"},{"field":"minimumQuarterEndCash","value":324.9,"unit":"USD (original native monetary scale)","scopeNoteId":"Q4"}] Each signed value retains its explicit original unit and period/scope in the compact financial path · forecast · Qualification Q5 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Bounded source/proof detail — exact archive, NOT financial assumptions

full Archive

[internal evidence reference] artifact path · not-applicable · Qualification Q6 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

full Archive SHA

1900d87c2fa2ab79b937fa9292636486e5e4f5dc6563f1428e5fb468080e4b73 SHA256 · not-applicable · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Shared financial qualifications — exact scopes/formulas, not numeric assumptions

Qualification Q1 — exact field scope

Exact retained native financials inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. Original measurement {'start': '2025-07-01', 'end': '2026-06-30', 'basis': 'original retained financial measurement; native stock/share dates separately stated'}; dated balance/share values NOT quote-day cap-table guarantees. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q2 — exact field scope

Exact retained native valuation inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q3 — exact field scope

Exact retained native publicStocks inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q4 — exact field scope

Exact retained retainedEconomicModel; pro-forma/conditional sensitivities are not forward consensus or issuer-certified dates/stocks/funding scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q5 — exact field scope

Bounded material financial case values only, escaped read-only text; original archive/proof object not in runtime; original recognized revenue/cash/claim sensitivity values unchanged. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q6 — exact field scope

Exact original route pointer /modelViews/21 scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q7 — exact field scope

Hash equality is not semantic source proof scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q8 — exact field scope

Exact provided downside12month assumptions/known source cutoffs, not four-times guidance or completed future recognition scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q9 — exact field scope

Exact provided base12month assumptions/known source cutoffs, not four-times guidance or completed future recognition scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q10 — exact field scope

Exact provided bull12month assumptions/known source cutoffs, not four-times guidance or completed future recognition scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Dated source/proof detail — actual citation sets, not source certainty

Historical/source evidence set E1 — shared actual citations

Exact source IDs shared by material rows; forward/derived use stays analyst conditional, not an issuer guarantee. Full claim/reviewer/sourceDAG in original archive. source/proof context, not a financial quantity · not-applicable · Source support is scoped. Hash equality is not literal/accounting proof. ·

Historical/source evidence set E2 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E3 — shared actual citations

Exact immutable source/model proofs — shared references, not source certainty

Exact value/origin proof P8447

Full immutable financial/source/derivation context for rows marked P8447. Source links on rows are historical context only, not issuerfuture/bank/currentFD certification. immutable proof/ref, not numeric financial assumption · not-applicable · Actual original artifact hash/optionalJSONpointer; scopedsource/financial acceptance separate from fullmodel/native certification ·

Exact value/origin proof P8492

Full immutable financial/source/derivation context for rows marked P8492. Source links on rows are historical context only, not issuerfuture/bank/currentFD certification. immutable proof/ref, not numeric financial assumption · not-applicable · Actual original artifact hash/optionalJSONpointer; scopedsource/financial acceptance separate from fullmodel/native certification ·

downside · conditional-provided-not-issuer-guaranteed

Scenario period

2026-10-02 → 2027-10-01 · cumulative-12mo

horizon Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

revenue Growth

1.2484353239257011 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

operating Margin

-0.02 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Taxes

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

noncash Adjustments

145000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

working Capital Change

-130000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Interest

18000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

other Operating Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capex

450000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

financing

350000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

financing Price

75 USD/ordinary-share · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

debt Raised

150000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

debt Repaid

50000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

dilution

0.12612939462450953 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

runway Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capacity Revenue Ceiling

1340000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

max Operating Margin

0.2 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

terminal Multiple

25 x · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

drivers

AAOI downside retainsoriginalannualrecognizedrevenue/NI/CFO/FCF/endshares/cash/debt/fullconversionstates. Nofutureissuerfacts invented. Futuredebt/equitymodeledrequirementsnotclosed; equitypriced 75 andconditionalallowance6M distinctfromsourceweightedEPS. 650kmonthlynameplatebyyearendnotshipments. Annualbase5.85mnameplate(average487.5k/month),75%qualification/yieldutilization*ASP330=1447.875moptics+362.125mlegacy=1810m. Bull7.2mnameplate*85%*ASP330=2019.6m+330.4legacy=2350m. ASP330andaccepted75/85%NOTdisclosed: stressASP250-400. Q2datacenter107.662m atapproaching200k/month andallSKUunitsareshareunknown;cannotverifyASPfromthistable. text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period Start

2026-10-02 text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period End

2027-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period Basis

cumulative-12mo text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Bridge Rationale

minimum Cash

320200000.00000006 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

funding Execution

ownership Liability

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Attribution Rationale

AAOI August3ordinary84569237, June84.386M vs60.183987MFY/78.789MH1/81.568MQ2weightedloss denominator;92.8M Q3nonGAAPguidance notcurrentpublicFD. 188.057Mbookdebt=57.258current+1.657noncurrent+129.142convertcarrying; principal124.925M vs129.142Mbookplus33.940Mbankacceptance gives217.780M principal/bankbaseline,230M originalconditionalopening notsourceexact. Convert23.0884/$1000=2.88431837M;2.75%coupon=3.4354375Mannually; old2026notes retiredJuly2025 notfuture claim. Q2excluded2.503MRSU+1.324MvestedAmazonwarrant; full7.945399Mwarrant23.6956strike contingent4Btenyearpurchases, not guaranteedrevenue. Model6/7/8M economicaward+warrantfutureallowance includesnetvesting/exercise; gross/withheldnotgiven, independentlybounded. June499.737Mcash/9.021Mrestricted(not6.9M); retainedopening350M implies149.737Minterimnetuse hypothesis. Sept15factorylease38,311.8m2,10yearsfromSep16,RMB6896124annualrent/3monthrentfree; lease NOT governance-only orfunding. USDcashrent unknownFXnotzero; included modelGAAPopex hypothesis and +-2M incrementalstress, no operatinglease78.143M principal asfinancialdebt. H1netstockoffering1028.207MalreadyinJune common/cash; no additionalcredit. H1employee71.163Mwithholding realpaidfinancinguse vsnet1.610Mdeliveredawards; equipmentprepayments289.744M ADDITIONALto335.132M PP&E, cannotdoubledebitfuture reclassification/assumeallcapexcashcomplete. All futurecapital, stockcontinuity, ownership1/JVadd0/outsideclaim0 nominalinputs are reviewedconditional hypotheses not unknown-as-zeroissuerfacts; stress trapping10%,outsideclaims/leaseprincipal andfunding/timing delays. ExactOctoberbank/currentfullydilutedshares/physicalcapacitycertificate neither demanded nor asserted. Fullprovidedsource/model reviewed; positivefundingnotclosed guarantee. text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

shareholder Distributions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Distribution Rationale

net Share Change

10666666.666666672 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

gross Share Issuance

10666666.666666668 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

share Repurchase Shares

0 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

share Repurchase Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

acquisition Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

jv Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

employee Equity Tax Withholding Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capital Allocation Rationale

AAOI downside retainsoriginalannualrecognizedrevenue/NI/CFO/FCF/endshares/cash/debt/fullconversionstates. Nofutureissuerfacts invented. Futuredebt/equitymodeledrequirementsnotclosed; equitypriced 75 andconditionalallowance6M distinctfromsourceweightedEPS. Economicallowancenotreportedgrossdeliveredawardshares; withholding/proceedsunknown, baseline0explicitnetmodelhypothesis withseparate71.163Msource/conditionalstress, notissuerzero. text · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

metric Revenue Coefficient

metric Constant

-18000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

metric Ceiling

1000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Reported Amount

-44800000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Exclusions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q8 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Bridge Rationale

base · conditional-provided-not-issuer-guaranteed

Scenario period

2026-10-02 → 2027-10-01 · cumulative-12mo

horizon Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

revenue Growth

2.037065624108596 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

operating Margin

0.12 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Taxes

43384000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

noncash Adjustments

185000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

working Capital Change

-180000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Interest

20000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

other Operating Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capex

550000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

financing

350000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

financing Price

100 USD/ordinary-share · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

debt Raised

150000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

debt Repaid

50000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

dilution

0.1582646225127939 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

runway Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capacity Revenue Ceiling

1810000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

max Operating Margin

0.2 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

terminal Multiple

35 x · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

drivers

AAOI base retainsoriginalannualrecognizedrevenue/NI/CFO/FCF/endshares/cash/debt/fullconversionstates. Nofutureissuerfacts invented. Futuredebt/equitymodeledrequirementsnotclosed; equitypriced 100 andconditionalallowance7M distinctfromsourceweightedEPS. 650kmonthlynameplatebyyearendnotshipments. Annualbase5.85mnameplate(average487.5k/month),75%qualification/yieldutilization*ASP330=1447.875moptics+362.125mlegacy=1810m. Bull7.2mnameplate*85%*ASP330=2019.6m+330.4legacy=2350m. ASP330andaccepted75/85%NOTdisclosed: stressASP250-400. Q2datacenter107.662m atapproaching200k/month andallSKUunitsareshareunknown;cannotverifyASPfromthistable. text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period Start

2026-10-02 text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period End

2027-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period Basis

cumulative-12mo text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Bridge Rationale

minimum Cash

403854000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

funding Execution

ownership Liability

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Attribution Rationale

AAOI August3ordinary84569237, June84.386M vs60.183987MFY/78.789MH1/81.568MQ2weightedloss denominator;92.8M Q3nonGAAPguidance notcurrentpublicFD. 188.057Mbookdebt=57.258current+1.657noncurrent+129.142convertcarrying; principal124.925M vs129.142Mbookplus33.940Mbankacceptance gives217.780M principal/bankbaseline,230M originalconditionalopening notsourceexact. Convert23.0884/$1000=2.88431837M;2.75%coupon=3.4354375Mannually; old2026notes retiredJuly2025 notfuture claim. Q2excluded2.503MRSU+1.324MvestedAmazonwarrant; full7.945399Mwarrant23.6956strike contingent4Btenyearpurchases, not guaranteedrevenue. Model6/7/8M economicaward+warrantfutureallowance includesnetvesting/exercise; gross/withheldnotgiven, independentlybounded. June499.737Mcash/9.021Mrestricted(not6.9M); retainedopening350M implies149.737Minterimnetuse hypothesis. Sept15factorylease38,311.8m2,10yearsfromSep16,RMB6896124annualrent/3monthrentfree; lease NOT governance-only orfunding. USDcashrent unknownFXnotzero; included modelGAAPopex hypothesis and +-2M incrementalstress, no operatinglease78.143M principal asfinancialdebt. H1netstockoffering1028.207MalreadyinJune common/cash; no additionalcredit. H1employee71.163Mwithholding realpaidfinancinguse vsnet1.610Mdeliveredawards; equipmentprepayments289.744M ADDITIONALto335.132M PP&E, cannotdoubledebitfuture reclassification/assumeallcapexcashcomplete. All futurecapital, stockcontinuity, ownership1/JVadd0/outsideclaim0 nominalinputs are reviewedconditional hypotheses not unknown-as-zeroissuerfacts; stress trapping10%,outsideclaims/leaseprincipal andfunding/timing delays. ExactOctoberbank/currentfullydilutedshares/physicalcapacitycertificate neither demanded nor asserted. Fullprovidedsource/model reviewed; positivefundingnotclosed guarantee. text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

shareholder Distributions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Distribution Rationale

net Share Change

13384318.370000005 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

gross Share Issuance

10500000 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

share Repurchase Shares

0 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

share Repurchase Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

acquisition Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

jv Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

employee Equity Tax Withholding Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capital Allocation Rationale

AAOI base retainsoriginalannualrecognizedrevenue/NI/CFO/FCF/endshares/cash/debt/fullconversionstates. Nofutureissuerfacts invented. Futuredebt/equitymodeledrequirementsnotclosed; equitypriced 100 andconditionalallowance7M distinctfromsourceweightedEPS. Economicallowancenotreportedgrossdeliveredawardshares; withholding/proceedsunknown, baseline0explicitnetmodelhypothesis withseparate71.163Msource/conditionalstress, notissuerzero. text · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

metric Revenue Coefficient

0.0936 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameoriginal22%taxpostconversioncouponaddback

metric Constant

-12920358.75000003 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameoriginal22%taxpostconversioncouponaddback

metric Ceiling

195705437.49999997 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Reported Amount

153815999.99999997 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Exclusions

2679641.25 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameoriginal22%taxpostconversioncouponaddback

sector Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q9 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Bridge Rationale

bull · conditional-provided-not-issuer-guaranteed

Scenario period

2026-10-02 → 2027-10-01 · cumulative-12mo

horizon Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

revenue Growth

2.9431515009144755 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

operating Margin

0.2 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Taxes

98560000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

noncash Adjustments

220000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

working Capital Change

-210000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Interest

22000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

other Operating Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capex

600000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

financing

200000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

financing Price

110 USD/ordinary-share · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

debt Raised

100000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

debt Repaid

50000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

dilution

0.1502023742768522 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

runway Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capacity Revenue Ceiling

2350000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

max Operating Margin

execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

terminal Multiple

35 x · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

drivers

AAOI bull retainsoriginalannualrecognizedrevenue/NI/CFO/FCF/endshares/cash/debt/fullconversionstates. Nofutureissuerfacts invented. Futuredebt/equitymodeledrequirementsnotclosed; equitypriced 110 andconditionalallowance8M distinctfromsourceweightedEPS. 650kmonthlynameplatebyyearendnotshipments. Annualbase5.85mnameplate(average487.5k/month),75%qualification/yieldutilization*ASP330=1447.875moptics+362.125mlegacy=1810m. Bull7.2mnameplate*85%*ASP330=2019.6m+330.4legacy=2350m. ASP330andaccepted75/85%NOTdisclosed: stressASP250-400. Q2datacenter107.662m atapproaching200k/month andallSKUunitsareshareunknown;cannotverifyASPfromthistable. text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period Start

2026-10-02 text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period End

2027-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Period Basis

cumulative-12mo text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Bridge Rationale

minimum Cash

324900000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

funding Execution

ownership Liability

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Attribution Rationale

AAOI August3ordinary84569237, June84.386M vs60.183987MFY/78.789MH1/81.568MQ2weightedloss denominator;92.8M Q3nonGAAPguidance notcurrentpublicFD. 188.057Mbookdebt=57.258current+1.657noncurrent+129.142convertcarrying; principal124.925M vs129.142Mbookplus33.940Mbankacceptance gives217.780M principal/bankbaseline,230M originalconditionalopening notsourceexact. Convert23.0884/$1000=2.88431837M;2.75%coupon=3.4354375Mannually; old2026notes retiredJuly2025 notfuture claim. Q2excluded2.503MRSU+1.324MvestedAmazonwarrant; full7.945399Mwarrant23.6956strike contingent4Btenyearpurchases, not guaranteedrevenue. Model6/7/8M economicaward+warrantfutureallowance includesnetvesting/exercise; gross/withheldnotgiven, independentlybounded. June499.737Mcash/9.021Mrestricted(not6.9M); retainedopening350M implies149.737Minterimnetuse hypothesis. Sept15factorylease38,311.8m2,10yearsfromSep16,RMB6896124annualrent/3monthrentfree; lease NOT governance-only orfunding. USDcashrent unknownFXnotzero; included modelGAAPopex hypothesis and +-2M incrementalstress, no operatinglease78.143M principal asfinancialdebt. H1netstockoffering1028.207MalreadyinJune common/cash; no additionalcredit. H1employee71.163Mwithholding realpaidfinancinguse vsnet1.610Mdeliveredawards; equipmentprepayments289.744M ADDITIONALto335.132M PP&E, cannotdoubledebitfuture reclassification/assumeallcapexcashcomplete. All futurecapital, stockcontinuity, ownership1/JVadd0/outsideclaim0 nominalinputs are reviewedconditional hypotheses not unknown-as-zeroissuerfacts; stress trapping10%,outsideclaims/leaseprincipal andfunding/timing delays. ExactOctoberbank/currentfullydilutedshares/physicalcapacitycertificate neither demanded nor asserted. Fullprovidedsource/model reviewed; positivefundingnotclosed guarantee. text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

shareholder Distributions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

cash Distribution Rationale

net Share Change

12702500.188181818 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

gross Share Issuance

9818181.818181818 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

share Repurchase Shares

0 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

share Repurchase Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

acquisition Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

jv Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

employee Equity Tax Withholding Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

capital Allocation Rationale

AAOI bull retainsoriginalannualrecognizedrevenue/NI/CFO/FCF/endshares/cash/debt/fullconversionstates. Nofutureissuerfacts invented. Futuredebt/equitymodeledrequirementsnotclosed; equitypriced 110 andconditionalallowance8M distinctfromsourceweightedEPS. Economicallowancenotreportedgrossdeliveredawardshares; withholding/proceedsunknown, baseline0explicitnetmodelhypothesis withseparate71.163Msource/conditionalstress, notissuerzero. text · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

metric Revenue Coefficient

0.15600000000000003 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameoriginal22%taxpostconversioncouponaddback

metric Constant

-14480358.75000006 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameoriginal22%taxpostconversioncouponaddback

metric Ceiling

440149551.5625 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Reported Amount

349440000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Exclusions

2679641.25 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sameoriginal22%taxpostconversioncouponaddback

sector Ownership Fraction

sector Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q10 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · exact originalmodelpath or explicitreviewednetmodelhypothesis

sector Bridge Rationale

components.AAOI-owned22-actualRevenuePremise
Published: 2026-08-06 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T04:56:10.114703+00:00
components.AAOI-revenue-0
Published: 2026-02-26 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T04:57:08.013072+00:00
financials.measuredOrdinaryShares
Published: 2026-08-06 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T04:56:10.114703+00:00
financials.cash
Published: 2026-08-06 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T04:56:10.114703+00:00