Published October 4, 2026

October Upside Ranks

Qualitative relative target-touch selections · Not calibrated probabilities

Dated prices · targets are price touches, not forecasts · exact ranks are editorial judgments.

Grade legend, dates & research limits

Completed editorial grades · assessed October 6. Business = demonstrated commercial traction. Catalyst = clarity and timing of the next important test, not success odds. Target path = how demanding this list’s target is. These grades use the same rubric for all selected names; they are not native financial-model grades or statistical probabilities.

A strong / direct · B supported but conditional · C speculative or major gaps · D exceptional leap / weak bridge. A strong catalyst can fail. A fivefold target can have a D path even in a top-ranked moonshot.

Exact grading benchmarks & evidence dates

Business

How far the business inflection is demonstrated today, not source completeness.

A — Broad, realized commercial growth or earnings; not just a plan.
B — Real but early, concentrated or mixed operating traction.
C — Primarily clinical/development or capacity optionality; limited realized economics.
D — Retained facts undermine the proposed business inflection.

Catalyst

Specificity, observability and timing of a thesis-changing test inside the original window, not its chance of success.

A — A scheduled or explicitly windowed material readout, launch or commercial ramp; repeated hard operating tests may qualify.
B — Concrete delivery, orders or earnings tests, but diffuse timing or less discrete thesis change.
C — A real milestone with important acceptance/economics/timing gaps.
D — No supported material in-window test.

Target path

Burden of reaching THIS tier target from the dated baseline; not an absolute odds estimate.

A — Comparatively direct earnings/recognition bridge in retained evidence; still conditional.
B — Recognizable bridge, but meaningful premium, execution or share-claim sensitivity.
C — Speculative extension or binary rerating beyond established economics; small-base elasticity is not a forecast.
D — Exceptional leap far beyond retained cases, with major scale/valuation/financing obstacles.

No bell curve, numeric weights, A+ grades, probability conversion or grade-based reranking. Same rubric for incumbents and additions; target-path grades vary by tier. A catalyst can fail. No synchronized chart grading because technical coverage is not comparable across all 19.

Assessment October 6 of retained evidence, not an October 6 source refresh. Baseline October 1; existing remaining touch window October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027. Original source cutoff October 3; additions retrieved October 4; Bloom narrative retrieved October 5 UTC. Original publication dates remain attached to sources.

Original conservative research grades remain in each full story. Partial financial underwriting remains partial: completed qualitative grades do not certify current cash, target dilution, clinical efficacy or funded forecasts. No chart grade is invented from unmatched technical snapshots.

Targets use October 1, 2026 baseline quotes, which are not live prices. The price-touch window is October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027, not the price at expiry. Exact ordinal differences are low-confidence editorial judgments; absolute likelihood may be low.

Original financial source cutoff: October 3, 2026, 07:14:12.687379 UTC. Biotech sources retrieved October 4 with original publication dates retained. Bloom’s power and policy narrative reviewed October 4 ET (sources retrieved October 5 UTC). Publication does not clear research or model limitations. No calibrated odds.

CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

+35% Upside · #6 2x Conviction · #1 5x Moonshots · #4

Oct1 baseline: USD 210.17. Original frozen quote retained.

The investment story

Thesis

AI clusters need faster connections; growing cable and optical-chip sales could lift Credo’s earnings, but its valuation is already high.

What could move the stock

AI clusters need faster connections; growing cable and optical-chip sales could lift Credo’s earnings, but its valuation is already high.

Next catalyst

Optical-chip sales and the planned first revenue from next-generation 1.6T products later in fiscal 2027.

Major risk

Customer concentration, stock-based pay and a falling valuation could outweigh sales growth.

Editorial grades · October 6 assessment

Same rubric for every selected company. Business is demonstrated traction; Catalyst is the timing and clarity of a test, not its chance of success. Target path changes with the target burden.

+35% Upside

BusinessACatalystATarget pathB

Business · A

Actual AEC growth, record optical DSP and first PIC revenue establish commercial traction, not just a photonics narrative.

Catalyst · A

Existing sales plus planned first 1.6T revenue later in fiscal 2027 provide distinct in-window business tests.

Target path · B

A retained operating bull crosses nominally, but higher current share claims erase the cushion and the starting premium is large.

Strongest countercase

A high starting valuation, customer concentration and recurring equity pay threaten common-owner gains.

Confidence & coverage

Low for target touch and adjacent ordering; moderate for the descriptive assessment of retained facts. Retained native financial and source detail preserved; existing holds and sensitivities still apply.

2x Conviction

BusinessACatalystATarget pathB

Business · A

Actual AEC growth, record optical DSP and first PIC revenue establish commercial traction, not just a photonics narrative.

Catalyst · A

Existing sales plus planned first 1.6T revenue later in fiscal 2027 provide distinct in-window business tests.

Target path · B

Rapid recognized growth plus retained premium sensitivity can support a double; the original lower-multiple case is not the same bridge.

Strongest countercase

A high starting valuation, customer concentration and recurring equity pay threaten common-owner gains.

Confidence & coverage

5x Moonshots

BusinessACatalystATarget pathD

Business · A

Actual AEC growth, record optical DSP and first PIC revenue establish commercial traction, not just a photonics narrative.

Catalyst · A

Existing sales plus planned first 1.6T revenue later in fiscal 2027 provide distinct in-window business tests.

Target path · D

Commercial traction is strong, but the high baseline means fivefold needs growth far beyond the retained bull and exceptional premium retention.

Strongest countercase

A high starting valuation, customer concentration and recurring equity pay threaten common-owner gains.

Confidence & coverage

Grade evidence & preserved research grades

Editorial reader v2 is separate from native financial certification. The original conservative evidence/path grades below have not been upgraded or overwritten.

+35% Upside original research grades

Evidence: B; operating pathway: B; feasibility: stretch.

2x Conviction original research grades

Evidence: B; operating pathway: C; feasibility: stretch.

5x Moonshots original research grades

Evidence: B; operating pathway: C; feasibility: heroic.

independentSourceChallenge.CRDO.measuredCommonShares
Published: 2026-09-02 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.296418+00:00
sourceFacts.netIncome.FY
Published: 2026-06-15 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.551959+00:00
sourceFacts.catalystEvidence
Published: 2026-09-08 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:01:48.310873+00:00

Detailed research, valuation assumptions & sources

Thesis

Record optical DSP and first silicon-photonics PIC revenue are actual; more than 90% of Q1 growth remained AEC. First 1.6T revenue later in FY27 is conditional.

Independent economic outcome

CRDO primary50 conservative candidate supplied-source/model/mapping/challenge work is complete for all247 exact valid provided leaf bindings, with actual14primaryXBRL contexts and25dated primary/identified-secondary passages independently checked. Original50x bull recognized3.6bn/36%GAAPmargin retaining420mSBC/5%analyticaltax/19maftertaxnonop yields1250.2mownerNI and212mendingeconomicclaims: nominal 294.85849056603774 crosses+35 but genuine reviewed198..218m currentclaim uncertainty, applied to fixed10.835009535m futureincrement, gives228.835009535mendingclaims and 273.16624377981975 below original 283.7294975280762 target. Mildrevenue-10%,margin-2pp,claims+10% also fail+35. AggregateAug1RSU8.3m/PSU3.1m/options1.7m@2.34, Aug25common187.951918m and132ksubsidiaryexchangeables are datedsourcecontexts, not weightedEPS/maxlegalfloat; future2.8m contingentstock +8.035009535mnewawardallowance are explicit bounded hypotheses. CEO specialPSUs approvedMay28 requirejoint revenue/pricegoals, not automaticcalendarNTMvesting or new1.437m beyondaggregatepool; older.2m200%cohort is distinct fromlaterrefresh100%. Source4.5bncapacity envelope is conditional recognized-demand scenario, not quantifiedproduction/ASP or bull-equal ceiling. Currentquarter25.2%GAAPmargin and-.585mtaxbenefit do not certify future36%/5%; SBC stays expense. Paid735.619macquisition is historical; closing31.6m contingentcash cap,102.4mdeposits inWC,20mlicence capitalcash and140mawardwithholding are separately reviewed once. Nativefunded cash1,590.458m, no futureemployee/externalfinancing credit; lowercash/timebuffer still assessed. Separate72nominal2x failsrevenue/claims/publicbounds stresses and is not primary50promotion. Hold is genuine reviewed-bounded-uncertainty for+35, not unfinishedwork, physicalcapacity/vesting/tax/fairvalue certification, economic-collapse rejection or approvedpick; parent owns finaladjudication.

Expectations gap

No independently matched current consensus-baseline mispricing is asserted. Paid growth plus a $3.6B/36% GAAP-margin original 50x route create genuine operating leverage. Nominal $294.858 bull exceeds the target, but upper current claims yield $273.166 below $283.729; rank reflects both facts, not automatic admission.

Confidence and limitations

Source-backedrelativebusinesscomparison; exactadjacentorderandfutureprice realization uncertain. Lowabsolutechanceisnotanadmissionban. Moderate confidence in comparative commercial facts; low confidence in exact adjacent rank and future realization. Stock-wide label uses most cautious genuine parent tier judgment; per-membership judgments preserved.

Qualitative editorial likelihood ordering only; no numeric probabilities, no mechanically calibrated source grade, no issuer future assurance. Adjacent order is low-confidence within the disclosed close-comparison bands.
No calibrated absolute hit probabilities or independently matched current consensus baseline; relative ordering uses qualified evidence, not a measured expectations gap.
Current claim/common-cash stress erodes narrow nominal crossing; positive nominal case is not robust under all retained bounds.
Native schema/interface historical holds remain archived. Unresolved economic cash/current-capital/accounting facts lower confidence; absent adapter EPS/cashDate alone does not label issuer uninvestable.
$420M recurring SBC, current common-claim range and future award allowance are retained. Customer concentration, deposits and manufacturing timing constrain growth; revenue-minus-margin-plus-claim stress misses +35. Minimum cash is conditional, not assurance.

Catalysts & disconfirmation

Record optical DSP and first silicon-photonics PIC revenue are actual; more than 90% of Q1 growth remained AEC. First 1.6T revenue later in FY27 is conditional.

2026-10-02 to 2027-04-30; source-supported-operating-window; exact future announcement dates unverified · Retainedprimaryreportedcommercialfacts supportmechanism; forwardpaidrecognition/funding notguaranteed. BnotA; no automaticnative-score conversion. · Upgrade: Confirm paid recognized delivery and common-owner economics within the retained operating window, not merely capacity/backlog/pilot publicity. If a preserved case misses, crossing requires better paid recognition/common economics or a different retained valuation sensitivity, as described; no new numeric margin/EPS/financial case is supplied. A case already crossing still needs realization of its existing assumptions. · Cut: Failure of the retained paid-recognition or recurring-owner-economics path, multiple compression, delayed catalyst or additional cash/claim burden would invalidate this route. $420M recurring SBC, current common-claim range and future award allowance are retained. Customer concentration, deposits and manufacturing timing constrain growth; revenue-minus-margin-plus-claim stress misses +35. Minimum cash is conditional, not assurance.

Bear case

Failure of the retained paid-recognition or recurring-owner-economics path, multiple compression, delayed catalyst or additional cash/claim burden would invalidate this route. $420M recurring SBC, current common-claim range and future award allowance are retained. Customer concentration, deposits and manufacturing timing constrain growth; revenue-minus-margin-plus-claim stress misses +35. Minimum cash is conditional, not assurance.

Retained financial routes — not target odds

Original financial hypotheses remain unchanged. Native disposition, independent WATCH and current editorial selection are distinct.

CRDO · Native watch-only / Independent ACCEPTED_SCOPED_CRDO50_SUPPLIED_SOURCE_MAPPING_CHALLENGE_REAL_BOUNDED_WATCH_NOT_ADMISSION

Economic outcome

Accounting and period

GAAP; actual/analyst-normalized classifications and source scope preserved individually · Exact original source measurement and forward cash windows; analysis/review dates separate · native/formula retained monetary units, no rescaling; per-field exact receipt unit used where provided

native.financials.convertibleConversionPrice

Not provided/true unknown in exact original input; no zero or issuer certification substituted

Core measured historical financials — dates and attribution retained

Recognized revenue — original measurement period

1591045000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · FY+YTDcurrent-YTDprior

Dated measured ordinary shares — NOT current fully diluted

187951918 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · actual · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

shares At

2026-08-25 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Original issuer table/fiscal-window metadata; defined ordinary-diluted valuation convention

operating Margin

0.3173782011193901 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (FY EBIT + current YTD EBIT - prior YTD EBIT)/TTM revenue

Dated reported cash / marketable liquidity (scope below)

764258000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Sum exact cash and identified current/liquid investments; TER includes identified noncurrentmarketables, not equitymethodasset

debt

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Complete reported borrowing balance; operating leases excluded; FTNT2031 face principal not discounted carrying amount

current Ordinary Shares

187951918 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Dated common+nominal0 stub change

options Incremental Shares

13213072.464982376 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Defined combined options/unvested award overlay; not current GAAPweighted EPS shares

current Valuation Shares

201164990.4649824 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · dated ordinary+defined award overlay

post Balance Cash Change

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · CRDO reported764.258m liquid balance + no separately verified completed postbalance cash transaction. Zero is nominalknowntransaction delta, NOT assertion unobserved cashflows were zero. Original750m analyst opening remains in comparison receipts; bounds650..850m retained.

post Balance Other Cash Change

post Balance Debt Change

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Retained full debt/equity notes: no outstanding convertible; no principal conversion, incremental conversion shares or cash settlement; historical principal repayment not replayed

convertible Debt Removed

convertible Cash Settlement

convertible Incremental Shares

0 ordinary-shares · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Retained full debt/equity notes: no outstanding convertible; no principal conversion, incremental conversion shares or cash settlement; historical principal repayment not replayed

ownership Liability

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Common cash=(cash+postbalancechange)*ownershipFraction-NCIreserve+verifiedJVcash; no equity-method asset credited

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Common cash=(cash+postbalancechange)*ownershipFraction-NCIreserve+verifiedJVcash; no equity-method asset credited

cash Nci Deduction

cash Jv Contribution

cash Ownership Reconciliation

CRDO Consolidated liquid cash proxy; TER bookNCI36.151m reserved from opening owner cash, equity-method investment514.957m never liquidcash; no current redemption obligation separately charged. CRDO wholly owned subsidiaries and FTNT consolidated group; geography/stub uncertainty not asserted exact. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q1 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Common cash=(cash+postbalancechange)*ownershipFraction-NCIreserve+verifiedJVcash; no equity-method asset credited

Material Provided valuation

reported Amount

538305000 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · FY+YTDcurrent-YTDprior

exclusions

-39590150 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (TTM EBIT+recurringnetother)*(1-issuer-specifictax)-aftertaxoutsideowner; exclusions=normalized-reported

normalized Amount

498714850 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (TTM EBIT+recurringnetother)*(1-issuer-specifictax)-aftertaxoutsideowner; exclusions=normalized-reported

ownership Fraction

1 fraction · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (TTM EBIT+recurringnetother)*(1-issuer-specifictax)-aftertaxoutsideowner; exclusions=normalized-reported

nci Deduction

0 USD · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (TTM EBIT+recurringnetother)*(1-issuer-specifictax)-aftertaxoutsideowner; exclusions=normalized-reported

jv Contribution

attributable Amount

annual Period

2025-08-03/2026-08-01 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (TTM EBIT+recurringnetother)*(1-issuer-specifictax)-aftertaxoutsideowner; exclusions=normalized-reported

reconciliation

CRDO TTM reportedcommon NI distinct from analytical recurring baseline: (GAAPTTM EBIT+reviewed recurring netother)*(1-normalizedtax)-TER20maftertax affiliate loss-10mNCI. SBC retained in GAAP EBIT; no additional profit addback; no PE netcash add-on. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (TTM EBIT+recurringnetother)*(1-issuer-specifictax)-aftertaxoutsideowner; exclusions=normalized-reported

sector

Fabless connectivity semiconductor text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

metric

P/normalizedEPS text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

reference Multiple

50 x · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

multiple Low

30 x · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

multiple High

72 x · assumption · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

model Fit

supported text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

justification

CRDO analyst retention reference 50x; reported-TTM implied CRDO +35%: CONDITIONAL PLAUSIBLE. 2x: HIGH-RISK CONDITIONAL PLAUSIBLE. 5x: ECONOMIC REJECT. ; independently normalized-current reference 84.77559005447954x. Both bases disclosed, no mixed forward/reporting peer claim. Premium persistence conditional on paid recognized growth, margin/SBC and funding. Multiples are not certified fairvalue. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

equity Pricing Scope

owners-metric-all-assets-no-cash-delta text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

equity Pricing Rationale

CRDO Equity P/E includes recurring netcash interest already; funding cash is survival only and is NOT added to PE price. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q2 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Reviewed issuer-specific normalized/common earnings valuation identity

Material Provided reportedEPSAnchor

reported Numerator

472279000 USD/share · actual · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

weighted Denominator

188232000 USD/share · actual · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Reported historical EPS — unsupported remains unknown

2.51 USD/share · actual · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

annual Period

2025-05-04/2026-05-02 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Original annual EPS table period; historical context only

precision

2 count · assumption · Qualification Q3 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Two displayed decimal places in reported diluted EPS

Material Provided publicStocks

shares At

2026-08-25 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

current Valuation Shares

201164990.4649824 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

common Cash

764258000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

debt

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

ownership Liability

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

material-bounded text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

lower

198000000 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

upper

218000000 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:bounds-currentValuationShares text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:31:45.150090+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO independently reviewed finite analyst uncertainty currentValuationShares 198000000..218000000. CRDO finite uncertainty tied to actual share/award pools and lastperiod cashflows. CRDO observedQ190.231mOCF/735.619macquisition/25.938mwithholding and deposits102.4m; TERH1734.262mCFO/155.439mcapex/165.611macq/550mrepayment and new1bnundrawnRCF; FTNTH12120.7mCFO/972.8mbuybacks/500mpriorrepayment. Intervals are analyst ranges, not asserted legal extremes. Additional10%claims stress and failedtiming cases retained; no automaticqualification. Ownership liability upper is explicitly conservative contingent31.6m/bookNCI36.151m/PPEpayable25.9m category buffer, not a duplicated certified redemption obligation; all-assets equitycoefficients zero. Cash ownerreserve deducted once beforecashbounds. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

198000000 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — evidence

218000000 ordinary shares (explicit dated/weighted/analyst basis) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

material-bounded text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

lower

650000000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

upper

850000000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:bounds-commonCash text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:31:45.150090+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO independently reviewed finite analyst uncertainty commonCash 650000000..850000000. CRDO finite uncertainty tied to actual share/award pools and lastperiod cashflows. CRDO observedQ190.231mOCF/735.619macquisition/25.938mwithholding and deposits102.4m; TERH1734.262mCFO/155.439mcapex/165.611macq/550mrepayment and new1bnundrawnRCF; FTNTH12120.7mCFO/972.8mbuybacks/500mpriorrepayment. Intervals are analyst ranges, not asserted legal extremes. Additional10%claims stress and failedtiming cases retained; no automaticqualification. Ownership liability upper is explicitly conservative contingent31.6m/bookNCI36.151m/PPEpayable25.9m category buffer, not a duplicated certified redemption obligation; all-assets equitycoefficients zero. Cash ownerreserve deducted once beforecashbounds. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

650000000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — evidence

850000000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

material-bounded text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

lower

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

upper

50000000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:bounds-debt text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:31:45.150090+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO independently reviewed finite analyst uncertainty debt 0..50000000. CRDO finite uncertainty tied to actual share/award pools and lastperiod cashflows. CRDO observedQ190.231mOCF/735.619macquisition/25.938mwithholding and deposits102.4m; TERH1734.262mCFO/155.439mcapex/165.611macq/550mrepayment and new1bnundrawnRCF; FTNTH12120.7mCFO/972.8mbuybacks/500mpriorrepayment. Intervals are analyst ranges, not asserted legal extremes. Additional10%claims stress and failedtiming cases retained; no automaticqualification. Ownership liability upper is explicitly conservative contingent31.6m/bookNCI36.151m/PPEpayable25.9m category buffer, not a duplicated certified redemption obligation; all-assets equitycoefficients zero. Cash ownerreserve deducted once beforecashbounds. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — evidence

50000000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

classification

material-bounded text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

lower

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

upper

31600000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:bounds-ownershipLiability text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:31:45.150090+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO independently reviewed finite analyst uncertainty ownershipLiability 0..31600000. CRDO finite uncertainty tied to actual share/award pools and lastperiod cashflows. CRDO observedQ190.231mOCF/735.619macquisition/25.938mwithholding and deposits102.4m; TERH1734.262mCFO/155.439mcapex/165.611macq/550mrepayment and new1bnundrawnRCF; FTNTH12120.7mCFO/972.8mbuybacks/500mpriorrepayment. Intervals are analyst ranges, not asserted legal extremes. Additional10%claims stress and failedtiming cases retained; no automaticqualification. Ownership liability upper is explicitly conservative contingent31.6m/bookNCI36.151m/PPEpayable25.9m category buffer, not a duplicated certified redemption obligation; all-assets equitycoefficients zero. Cash ownerreserve deducted once beforecashbounds. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — evidence

31600000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Cash

618683000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:liquidity-downside text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:44:34.563336+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO downside ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

618683000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Cash

630258000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:liquidity-base text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:44:34.563336+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO base ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

630258000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

minimum Cash

630258000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:liquidity-bull text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:44:34.563336+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO bull ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

630258000 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

id

CRDO:stopped:proof:allassets-no-cash-addon text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

derived At

2026-10-02T20:31:45.150090+00:00 text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

rationale

CRDO P/normalizedEPS owners-metric-all-assets-no-cash-delta already includes recurring interest/owner earnings. Explicit zero additive stockpricingcoefficients are valuationidentity, NOT zero balance assumptions. Funding cash/debt/ownership still bounded separately; no second netcash addition. text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

0 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

1 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

2 — evidence

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

kind

analyst-assumption text · not-applicable · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

hypothetical

true boolean · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

common Cash

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

debt

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

ownership Liability

0 USD (original native monetary scale) · assumption · Qualification Q4 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Bounded source/proof detail — exact archive, NOT financial assumptions

full Archive

[internal evidence reference] artifact path · not-applicable · Qualification Q5 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

full Archive SHA

1900d87c2fa2ab79b937fa9292636486e5e4f5dc6563f1428e5fb468080e4b73 SHA256 · not-applicable · Qualification Q6 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. ·

Shared financial qualifications — exact scopes/formulas, not numeric assumptions

Qualification Q1 — exact field scope

Exact retained native financials inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. Original measurement {'start': '2025-08-03', 'end': '2026-08-01', 'basis': 'original retained financial measurement; native stock/share dates separately stated'}; dated balance/share values NOT quote-day cap-table guarantees. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q2 — exact field scope

Exact retained native valuation inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q3 — exact field scope

Exact retained native reportedEPSAnchor inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q4 — exact field scope

Exact retained native publicStocks inputs. Review/source time, monetary/share basis and uncertainty are original. Typed native bookkeeping is NOT source truth or all-model-resolution certification. scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q5 — exact field scope

Exact original route pointer /modelViews/34 scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q6 — exact field scope

Hash equality is not semantic source proof scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Qualification Q7 — exact field scope

Exact provided downside12month assumptions/known source cutoffs, not four-times guidance or completed future recognition scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Formula qualification Q8

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.cashTaxes: CRDO downside ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q9

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.cashInterest: CRDO downside ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q10

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.otherOperatingCash: CRDO downside ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q11

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.capex: CRDO downside ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q12

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.minimumCash: CRDO downside ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. Nominal fourbucket min minus reviewedtimebuffer; publiclowercash shift applied once. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q13

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.ownerMetricMarginDependency.basis: CRDO downside actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.23; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.2185. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q14

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.ownerMetricMarginDependency.baselineOperatingMargin: CRDO downside actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.23; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.2185. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q15

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.ownerMetricMarginDependency.afterTaxOwnerProfitSlope: CRDO downside actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.23; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.2185. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q16

Formula for native.scenarios.downside.ownerMetricMarginDependency.rationale: CRDO downside actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.23; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.2185. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Qualification Q17 — exact field scope

Exact provided base12month assumptions/known source cutoffs, not four-times guidance or completed future recognition scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Formula qualification Q18

Formula for native.scenarios.base.cashTaxes: CRDO base ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q19

Formula for native.scenarios.base.cashInterest: CRDO base ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q20

Formula for native.scenarios.base.otherOperatingCash: CRDO base ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q21

Formula for native.scenarios.base.capex: CRDO base ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q22

Formula for native.scenarios.base.minimumCash: CRDO base ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. Nominal fourbucket min minus reviewedtimebuffer; publiclowercash shift applied once. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q23

Formula for native.scenarios.base.ownerMetricMarginDependency.basis: CRDO base actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.32; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.304. Nonoperating aftertax constant 23750000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q24

Formula for native.scenarios.base.ownerMetricMarginDependency.baselineOperatingMargin: CRDO base actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.32; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.304. Nonoperating aftertax constant 23750000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q25

Formula for native.scenarios.base.ownerMetricMarginDependency.afterTaxOwnerProfitSlope: CRDO base actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.32; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.304. Nonoperating aftertax constant 23750000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q26

Formula for native.scenarios.base.ownerMetricMarginDependency.rationale: CRDO base actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.32; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.304. Nonoperating aftertax constant 23750000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Qualification Q27 — exact field scope

Exact provided bull12month assumptions/known source cutoffs, not four-times guidance or completed future recognition scope / methodology text, not financial measure · not-applicable · Full exact original financial qualification, displayed once; affected rows reference this note. NOT bank/model/native certification. ·

Formula qualification Q28

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.cashTaxes: CRDO bull ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q29

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.cashInterest: CRDO bull ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q30

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.otherOperatingCash: CRDO bull ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q31

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.capex: CRDO bull ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q32

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.minimumCash: CRDO bull ACTUAL native equation: CFO=EBIT-cashTaxes+noncash+signedWC-cashInterest+otherOperatingCash. This source-model forecasts paid tax/interest, so native amounts are POSITIVE, not negative refunds/credits. Fixed dollar tax and coupon are independent cash inputs; owner-margin slope never reapplies ownerNI/tax to CFO. Explicit adverse funding variant credits NO future employee exercise/ESPP cash, while original historical/source forecasts remain comparison; zero is chosen conservative stress, not absence/default. CRDO20m technologylicence payment is capitalized designsoftware/IP: retained source cash statement reports financing, NOT operating. Native analytic economicCapex includes20m capital use once with physicalcapex; no debt/financelease created and no second payment in othercash. Source tax/noncash/WC/interest amounts and original conservative TERaffiliate convention are retained; no NI added twice. Nominal fourbucket min minus reviewedtimebuffer; publiclowercash shift applied once. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q33

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.ownerMetricMarginDependency.basis: CRDO bull actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.36; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.34199999999999997. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q34

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.ownerMetricMarginDependency.baselineOperatingMargin: CRDO bull actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.36; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.34199999999999997. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q35

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.ownerMetricMarginDependency.afterTaxOwnerProfitSlope: CRDO bull actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.36; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.34199999999999997. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Formula qualification Q36

Formula for native.scenarios.bull.ownerMetricMarginDependency.rationale: CRDO bull actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.36; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.34199999999999997. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. exact formula/method text · not-applicable · Exact original formula retained once, not a new financial computation ·

Dated source/proof detail — actual citation sets, not source certainty

Historical/source evidence set E1 — shared actual citations

Exact source IDs shared by material rows; forward/derived use stays analyst conditional, not an issuer guarantee. Full claim/reviewer/sourceDAG in original archive. source/proof context, not a financial quantity · not-applicable · Source support is scoped. Hash equality is not literal/accounting proof. ·

Historical/source evidence set E2 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E3 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E4 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E5 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E6 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E7 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E8 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E9 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E10 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E11 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E12 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E13 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E14 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E15 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E16 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E17 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E18 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E19 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E20 — shared actual citations

Historical/source evidence set E21 — shared actual citations

Exact immutable source/model proofs — shared references, not source certainty

Exact value/origin proof P8447

Full immutable financial/source/derivation context for rows marked P8447. Source links on rows are historical context only, not issuerfuture/bank/currentFD certification. immutable proof/ref, not numeric financial assumption · not-applicable · Actual original artifact hash/optionalJSONpointer; scopedsource/financial acceptance separate from fullmodel/native certification ·

Exact value/origin proof P8505

Full immutable financial/source/derivation context for rows marked P8505. Source links on rows are historical context only, not issuerfuture/bank/currentFD certification. immutable proof/ref, not numeric financial assumption · not-applicable · Actual original artifact hash/optionalJSONpointer; scopedsource/financial acceptance separate from fullmodel/native certification ·

downside · conditional-provided-not-issuer-guaranteed

Scenario period

2026-10-01 → 2027-10-01 · cumulative-12mo

horizon Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst horizonMonths assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

revenue Growth

0.3827390174382246 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recognizedQuarterSum/TTMRevenue-1

operating Margin

0.23 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · GAAPOperatingProfit/recognizedAnnualRevenue; SBC remains expense

cash Taxes

26300000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q8 in route shared notes

noncash Adjustments

510000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · SBCnoncashAddback+DandA+inventoryProvision+TERnoncashLeaseAndOther

working Capital Change

-402400000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sum exact signed forecast AR,inventory,AP,deferredrevenue,otheroperatingcash; CRDOdeposit102.4m once; TERleasecash once

cash Interest

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q9 in route shared notes

other Operating Cash

20000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q10 in route shared notes

capex

100000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q11 in route shared notes

financing

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst financing assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

financing Price

157.62749862670898 USD/ordinary-share · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst financingPrice assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

debt Raised

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst debtRaised assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

debt Repaid

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst debtRepaid assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

dilution

0.043919220310631314 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (explicitEndEconomicShares-definedCurrentEconomicShares)/definedCurrentEconomicShares

runway Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst runwayMonths assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

capacity Revenue Ceiling

4500000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · conditional issuer-specific recognized-demand envelope informed by actualramp/guide, NOT physicalcapacitycertificate

max Operating Margin

0.4 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · conditional GAAPmargin envelope from actualmargin/guidedgrossmargin and prospectiveSBC/opex, NOT bull-equal ceiling

execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst execution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

terminal Multiple

30 x · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · explicit issuer-specific retention/compression hypothesis, NO certified peer fairvalue

drivers

CRDO downside source-grounded analyst recognition/margin hypothesis. CRDO record optical DSP and first siliconphotonics PIC revenue are realized; laterFY27 first1.6T revenue is conditional. >90% Q1growth remains AEC. Manufacturing deposits reserve capacity, not recognizedsales. No issuer guarantee or claimed productionaward/capacitycertification. Annual sales are recognized sums, not quarterexit*4. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst drivers assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period Start

2026-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashPeriodStart assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period End

2027-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashPeriodEnd assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period Basis

cumulative-12mo text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashPeriodBasis assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Bridge Rationale

CRDO signed EBIT+taxcash+noncash+WC+interest+othercash. Employeeproceeds inside othercash; CRDOlicense20m deducted there. Original annual window Oct1-Sep30 is preserved; API exclusive endpoint nextOct1 describes same365days. TER retains original conservative affiliate20m omission, not extra cash. Capex/acquisition/awardcash/buyback/dividends charged once. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashBridgeRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

minimum Cash

618683000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q12 in route shared notes

funding Execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · CRDO nominal timingfunding flag recalculated only from original disjoint fourbucket flow and nominal openingstock. This does not certify bounded survival; TERdownside lowopening fails and is explicitly preserved.

ownership Liability

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst ownershipLiability assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashOwnershipFraction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashNciDeduction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashJvContribution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Attribution Rationale

CRDO cash is conservative consolidated-liquidity proxy with TER36.151m bookNCI held outside opening owner liquidity; no equitymethod asset monetization. Geography/currentcash availability uncertainty remains in bounds. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashAttributionRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

shareholder Distributions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst shareholderDistributions assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Distribution Rationale

CRDO common cash dividends only; buybacks separate. Zero forward dividends for CRDO/FTNT is explicit analyst policy assumption supported by retained financing tables, not missing-source default. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst cashDistributionRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

net Share Change

8835009.53501761 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · explicitEndEconomicShares-definedCurrentEconomicShares

gross Share Issuance

8835009.53501761 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · netShareChange+absoluteProspectiveBuybackShares

share Repurchase Shares

0 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · absoluteProspectiveBuybackCash/explicitAssumedAverageBuybackPrice

share Repurchase Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst shareRepurchaseCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

acquisition Investing Cash

31600000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst acquisitionInvestingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

jv Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst jvInvestingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

employee Equity Tax Withholding Cash

120000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst employeeEquityTaxWithholdingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

capital Allocation Rationale

CRDO net economic claims equals gross allowance minus prospective absolute buybackshares; existing unvested awards already in opening overlay, not added twice. No new JVcash assumed; TER observed10.030m H1 investment is historical, no future signed purchase obligation recovered. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst capitalAllocationRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

metric Revenue Coefficient

0.2185 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · scenarioGAAPmargin*(1-scenarioTaxRate)

metric Constant

19000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recurringNetOther*(1-scenarioTaxRate)-TERaftertaxAffiliateLoss-TERaftertaxNCI

metric Ceiling

1729000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · reviewedRecognizedRevenueEnvelope*reviewedMarginEnvelope*(1-specificTax)+metricConstant

sector Bridge Rationale

CRDO GAAPmargin retains SBC; specifictax 0.05; recurringother 20000000.0; aftertaxowner/affiliate 0. Equation R*margin*(1-tax)+constant; ownerMargin dependency handles margin stress. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst sectorBridgeRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Reported Amount

499700000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recognizedAnnualRevenue*metricRevenueCoefficient+metricConstant

sector Exclusions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst sectorExclusions assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst sectorOwnershipFraction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst sectorNciDeduction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO downside analyst sectorJvContribution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

basis

operating-margin-linked-normalized-common-income text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q13 in route shared notes

baseline Operating Margin

0.23 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q14 in route shared notes

after Tax Owner Profit Slope

0.95 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q15 in route shared notes

rationale

CRDO downside actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.23; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.2185. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. text · forecast · Qualification Q7 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q16 in route shared notes

base · conditional-provided-not-issuer-guaranteed

Scenario period

2026-10-01 → 2027-10-01 · cumulative-12mo

horizon Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst horizonMonths assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

revenue Growth

0.885553205597579 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recognizedQuarterSum/TTMRevenue-1

operating Margin

0.32 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · GAAPOperatingProfit/recognizedAnnualRevenue; SBC remains expense

cash Taxes

49250000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q18 in route shared notes

noncash Adjustments

510000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · SBCnoncashAddback+DandA+inventoryProvision+TERnoncashLeaseAndOther

working Capital Change

-482400000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sum exact signed forecast AR,inventory,AP,deferredrevenue,otheroperatingcash; CRDOdeposit102.4m once; TERleasecash once

cash Interest

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q19 in route shared notes

other Operating Cash

25000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q20 in route shared notes

capex

110000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q21 in route shared notes

financing

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst financing assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

financing Price

157.62749862670898 USD/ordinary-share · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst financingPrice assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

debt Raised

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst debtRaised assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

debt Repaid

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst debtRepaid assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

dilution

0.03397713249814911 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (explicitEndEconomicShares-definedCurrentEconomicShares)/definedCurrentEconomicShares

runway Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst runwayMonths assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

capacity Revenue Ceiling

4500000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · conditional issuer-specific recognized-demand envelope informed by actualramp/guide, NOT physicalcapacitycertificate

max Operating Margin

0.4 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · conditional GAAPmargin envelope from actualmargin/guidedgrossmargin and prospectiveSBC/opex, NOT bull-equal ceiling

execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst execution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

terminal Multiple

40 x · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · explicit issuer-specific retention/compression hypothesis, NO certified peer fairvalue

drivers

CRDO base source-grounded analyst recognition/margin hypothesis. CRDO record optical DSP and first siliconphotonics PIC revenue are realized; laterFY27 first1.6T revenue is conditional. >90% Q1growth remains AEC. Manufacturing deposits reserve capacity, not recognizedsales. No issuer guarantee or claimed productionaward/capacitycertification. Annual sales are recognized sums, not quarterexit*4. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst drivers assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period Start

2026-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashPeriodStart assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period End

2027-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashPeriodEnd assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period Basis

cumulative-12mo text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashPeriodBasis assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Bridge Rationale

CRDO signed EBIT+taxcash+noncash+WC+interest+othercash. Employeeproceeds inside othercash; CRDOlicense20m deducted there. Original annual window Oct1-Sep30 is preserved; API exclusive endpoint nextOct1 describes same365days. TER retains original conservative affiliate20m omission, not extra cash. Capex/acquisition/awardcash/buyback/dividends charged once. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashBridgeRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

minimum Cash

630258000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q22 in route shared notes

funding Execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · CRDO nominal timingfunding flag recalculated only from original disjoint fourbucket flow and nominal openingstock. This does not certify bounded survival; TERdownside lowopening fails and is explicitly preserved.

ownership Liability

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst ownershipLiability assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashOwnershipFraction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashNciDeduction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashJvContribution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Attribution Rationale

CRDO cash is conservative consolidated-liquidity proxy with TER36.151m bookNCI held outside opening owner liquidity; no equitymethod asset monetization. Geography/currentcash availability uncertainty remains in bounds. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashAttributionRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

shareholder Distributions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst shareholderDistributions assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Distribution Rationale

CRDO common cash dividends only; buybacks separate. Zero forward dividends for CRDO/FTNT is explicit analyst policy assumption supported by retained financing tables, not missing-source default. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst cashDistributionRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

net Share Change

6835009.53501761 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · explicitEndEconomicShares-definedCurrentEconomicShares

gross Share Issuance

6835009.53501761 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · netShareChange+absoluteProspectiveBuybackShares

share Repurchase Shares

0 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · absoluteProspectiveBuybackCash/explicitAssumedAverageBuybackPrice

share Repurchase Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst shareRepurchaseCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

acquisition Investing Cash

31600000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst acquisitionInvestingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

jv Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst jvInvestingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

employee Equity Tax Withholding Cash

120000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst employeeEquityTaxWithholdingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

capital Allocation Rationale

CRDO net economic claims equals gross allowance minus prospective absolute buybackshares; existing unvested awards already in opening overlay, not added twice. No new JVcash assumed; TER observed10.030m H1 investment is historical, no future signed purchase obligation recovered. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst capitalAllocationRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

metric Revenue Coefficient

0.304 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · scenarioGAAPmargin*(1-scenarioTaxRate)

metric Constant

23750000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recurringNetOther*(1-scenarioTaxRate)-TERaftertaxAffiliateLoss-TERaftertaxNCI

metric Ceiling

1733750000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · reviewedRecognizedRevenueEnvelope*reviewedMarginEnvelope*(1-specificTax)+metricConstant

sector Bridge Rationale

CRDO GAAPmargin retains SBC; specifictax 0.05; recurringother 25000000.0; aftertaxowner/affiliate 0. Equation R*margin*(1-tax)+constant; ownerMargin dependency handles margin stress. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst sectorBridgeRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Reported Amount

935750000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recognizedAnnualRevenue*metricRevenueCoefficient+metricConstant

sector Exclusions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst sectorExclusions assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst sectorOwnershipFraction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst sectorNciDeduction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO base analyst sectorJvContribution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

basis

operating-margin-linked-normalized-common-income text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q23 in route shared notes

baseline Operating Margin

0.32 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q24 in route shared notes

after Tax Owner Profit Slope

0.95 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q25 in route shared notes

rationale

CRDO base actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.32; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.304. Nonoperating aftertax constant 23750000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. text · forecast · Qualification Q17 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q26 in route shared notes

bull · conditional-provided-not-issuer-guaranteed

Scenario period

2026-10-01 → 2027-10-01 · cumulative-12mo

horizon Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst horizonMonths assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

revenue Growth

1.2626638467170945 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recognizedQuarterSum/TTMRevenue-1

operating Margin

0.36 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · GAAPOperatingProfit/recognizedAnnualRevenue; SBC remains expense

cash Taxes

65800000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q28 in route shared notes

noncash Adjustments

540000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · SBCnoncashAddback+DandA+inventoryProvision+TERnoncashLeaseAndOther

working Capital Change

-652400000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · sum exact signed forecast AR,inventory,AP,deferredrevenue,otheroperatingcash; CRDOdeposit102.4m once; TERleasecash once

cash Interest

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q29 in route shared notes

other Operating Cash

20000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q30 in route shared notes

capex

140000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q31 in route shared notes

financing

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst financing assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

financing Price

157.62749862670898 USD/ordinary-share · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst financingPrice assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

debt Raised

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst debtRaised assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

debt Repaid

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst debtRepaid assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

dilution

0.053861308123113516 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · (explicitEndEconomicShares-definedCurrentEconomicShares)/definedCurrentEconomicShares

runway Months

12 months · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst runwayMonths assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

capacity Revenue Ceiling

4500000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · conditional issuer-specific recognized-demand envelope informed by actualramp/guide, NOT physicalcapacitycertificate

max Operating Margin

0.4 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · conditional GAAPmargin envelope from actualmargin/guidedgrossmargin and prospectiveSBC/opex, NOT bull-equal ceiling

execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst execution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

terminal Multiple

50 x · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · explicit issuer-specific retention/compression hypothesis, NO certified peer fairvalue

drivers

CRDO bull source-grounded analyst recognition/margin hypothesis. CRDO record optical DSP and first siliconphotonics PIC revenue are realized; laterFY27 first1.6T revenue is conditional. >90% Q1growth remains AEC. Manufacturing deposits reserve capacity, not recognizedsales. No issuer guarantee or claimed productionaward/capacitycertification. Annual sales are recognized sums, not quarterexit*4. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst drivers assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period Start

2026-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashPeriodStart assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period End

2027-10-01 text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashPeriodEnd assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Period Basis

cumulative-12mo text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashPeriodBasis assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Bridge Rationale

CRDO signed EBIT+taxcash+noncash+WC+interest+othercash. Employeeproceeds inside othercash; CRDOlicense20m deducted there. Original annual window Oct1-Sep30 is preserved; API exclusive endpoint nextOct1 describes same365days. TER retains original conservative affiliate20m omission, not extra cash. Capex/acquisition/awardcash/buyback/dividends charged once. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashBridgeRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

minimum Cash

630258000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q32 in route shared notes

funding Execution

supported text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · CRDO nominal timingfunding flag recalculated only from original disjoint fourbucket flow and nominal openingstock. This does not certify bounded survival; TERdownside lowopening fails and is explicitly preserved.

ownership Liability

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst ownershipLiability assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashOwnershipFraction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashNciDeduction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashJvContribution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Attribution Rationale

CRDO cash is conservative consolidated-liquidity proxy with TER36.151m bookNCI held outside opening owner liquidity; no equitymethod asset monetization. Geography/currentcash availability uncertainty remains in bounds. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashAttributionRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

shareholder Distributions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst shareholderDistributions assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

cash Distribution Rationale

CRDO common cash dividends only; buybacks separate. Zero forward dividends for CRDO/FTNT is explicit analyst policy assumption supported by retained financing tables, not missing-source default. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst cashDistributionRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

net Share Change

10835009.53501761 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · explicitEndEconomicShares-definedCurrentEconomicShares

gross Share Issuance

10835009.53501761 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · netShareChange+absoluteProspectiveBuybackShares

share Repurchase Shares

0 ordinary-shares · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · absoluteProspectiveBuybackCash/explicitAssumedAverageBuybackPrice

share Repurchase Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst shareRepurchaseCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

acquisition Investing Cash

31600000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst acquisitionInvestingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

jv Investing Cash

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst jvInvestingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

employee Equity Tax Withholding Cash

140000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst employeeEquityTaxWithholdingCash assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

capital Allocation Rationale

CRDO net economic claims equals gross allowance minus prospective absolute buybackshares; existing unvested awards already in opening overlay, not added twice. No new JVcash assumed; TER observed10.030m H1 investment is historical, no future signed purchase obligation recovered. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst capitalAllocationRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

metric Revenue Coefficient

0.34199999999999997 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · scenarioGAAPmargin*(1-scenarioTaxRate)

metric Constant

19000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recurringNetOther*(1-scenarioTaxRate)-TERaftertaxAffiliateLoss-TERaftertaxNCI

metric Ceiling

1729000000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · reviewedRecognizedRevenueEnvelope*reviewedMarginEnvelope*(1-specificTax)+metricConstant

sector Bridge Rationale

CRDO GAAPmargin retains SBC; specifictax 0.05; recurringother 20000000.0; aftertaxowner/affiliate 0. Equation R*margin*(1-tax)+constant; ownerMargin dependency handles margin stress. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst sectorBridgeRationale assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Reported Amount

1250200000 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · recognizedAnnualRevenue*metricRevenueCoefficient+metricConstant

sector Exclusions

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst sectorExclusions assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Ownership Fraction

1 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst sectorOwnershipFraction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Nci Deduction

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst sectorNciDeduction assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

sector Jv Contribution

0 USD · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Explicit CRDO bull analyst sectorJvContribution assumption/definition, not issuer guarantee; retained raw-model leaf or independently scoped recovery

basis

operating-margin-linked-normalized-common-income text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q33 in route shared notes

baseline Operating Margin

0.36 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q34 in route shared notes

after Tax Owner Profit Slope

0.95 fraction · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q35 in route shared notes

rationale

CRDO bull actualsource-model GAAPmargin 0.36; specific normalizedtax 0.05; attributable aftertax EBIT slope 0.95. Baseline*slope exactly reconciles existing coefficient 0.34199999999999997. Nonoperating aftertax constant 19000000.0 USD remains fixed; TER affiliate/NCI constants not proportional to EBIT. SBC stays expensed. Forecast CASH taxes/noncash/WC/interest/otherCFO remain fixed under owner-income perturbation; NI never added to CFO. Technical analytical assumption review, not issuer-published forecast or public approval. text · forecast · Qualification Q27 below. Historical source context only; exact immutable field-origin/proof mapping retained. · Exact formula note Q36 in route shared notes

sourceFacts.ebit.0
Published: 2026-06-15 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.551959+00:00
sourceFacts.borrowingEvidence
Published: 2026-09-02 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.296418+00:00
sourceFacts.liquidCashComponent.0
Published: 2026-09-02 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.296418+00:00
sourceFacts.awardComponent.0
Published: 2026-09-02 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.296418+00:00
financials.measuredOrdinaryShares
Published: 2026-09-02 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.296418+00:00
sourceFacts.revenue.FY
Published: 2026-06-15 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.551959+00:00
sourceFacts.netIncome.FY
Published: 2026-06-15 · Retrieved: 2026-10-02T06:00:46.551959+00:00