October Upside Ranks
Qualitative relative target-touch selections · Not calibrated probabilities
Dated prices · targets are price touches, not forecasts · exact ranks are editorial judgments.
Grade legend, dates & research limits
Completed editorial grades · assessed October 6. Business = demonstrated commercial traction. Catalyst = clarity and timing of the next important test, not success odds. Target path = how demanding this list’s target is. These grades use the same rubric for all selected names; they are not native financial-model grades or statistical probabilities.
A strong / direct · B supported but conditional · C speculative or major gaps · D exceptional leap / weak bridge. A strong catalyst can fail. A fivefold target can have a D path even in a top-ranked moonshot.
Exact grading benchmarks & evidence dates
Business
How far the business inflection is demonstrated today, not source completeness.
- A — Broad, realized commercial growth or earnings; not just a plan.
- B — Real but early, concentrated or mixed operating traction.
- C — Primarily clinical/development or capacity optionality; limited realized economics.
- D — Retained facts undermine the proposed business inflection.
Catalyst
Specificity, observability and timing of a thesis-changing test inside the original window, not its chance of success.
- A — A scheduled or explicitly windowed material readout, launch or commercial ramp; repeated hard operating tests may qualify.
- B — Concrete delivery, orders or earnings tests, but diffuse timing or less discrete thesis change.
- C — A real milestone with important acceptance/economics/timing gaps.
- D — No supported material in-window test.
Target path
Burden of reaching THIS tier target from the dated baseline; not an absolute odds estimate.
- A — Comparatively direct earnings/recognition bridge in retained evidence; still conditional.
- B — Recognizable bridge, but meaningful premium, execution or share-claim sensitivity.
- C — Speculative extension or binary rerating beyond established economics; small-base elasticity is not a forecast.
- D — Exceptional leap far beyond retained cases, with major scale/valuation/financing obstacles.
No bell curve, numeric weights, A+ grades, probability conversion or grade-based reranking. Same rubric for incumbents and additions; target-path grades vary by tier. A catalyst can fail. No synchronized chart grading because technical coverage is not comparable across all 19.
Assessment October 6 of retained evidence, not an October 6 source refresh. Baseline October 1; existing remaining touch window October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027. Original source cutoff October 3; additions retrieved October 4; Bloom narrative retrieved October 5 UTC. Original publication dates remain attached to sources.
Original conservative research grades remain in each full story. Partial financial underwriting remains partial: completed qualitative grades do not certify current cash, target dilution, clinical efficacy or funded forecasts. No chart grade is invented from unmatched technical snapshots.
Targets use October 1, 2026 baseline quotes, which are not live prices. The price-touch window is October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027, not the price at expiry. Exact ordinal differences are low-confidence editorial judgments; absolute likelihood may be low.
Original financial source cutoff: October 3, 2026, 07:14:12.687379 UTC. Biotech sources retrieved October 4 with original publication dates retained. Bloom’s power and policy narrative reviewed October 4 ET (sources retrieved October 5 UTC). Publication does not clear research or model limitations. No calibrated odds.
ILMN · ILMN
Research only — not selected in current October lists.
Oct1 baseline: USD 265.72. Historical daily quote retrieved Oct4.
Detailed research, financial evidence & sources
Business
Sequencing ecosystem with recurring consumables, computational genomics AI products and acquired proteomics; not a single-drug trial binary
Financial quality
Q2 consumables $852m (73.5% total), instruments $130m and service/other $177m. NovaSeq X instrument placement can seed durable consumables, but incremental placement sales and acquired SomaLogic are not all organic AI demand. Q2 +9.5% reported, +8.1% ROW organic; excludes currency/acquisitions/China and is not worldwide organic. Adjusted operating margin 22.5% below prior 23.8% despite GAAP gains. Strategic investment gains distort GAAP EPS; adjusted reconciliation does not generally remove all SBC.
Claims and dilution
151m cover common versus 153m Q2 diluted weighted; 201m issued including treasury is not current outstanding. RSU/PSU bridge and future buybacks must be joint cash/share assumptions. $500m 2027 notes mature December2027, outside exact Oct4 2027 endpoint, though refinancing may be announced inside it.
Guide / interpretation
{"FY2026RevenueUSDm":[4600,4640],"ROWOrganicRevenueGrowthPercent":">5","nonGAAPOperatingMarginPercent":[23.4,23.6],"nonGAAPDilutedEPSUSD":[5.3,5.4],"basis":"Issuer fiscal2026 adjusted guide. Not exact Oct4-Oct4 forecast. GAAP and adjusted profit retained separately; no automatic SBC addback."}
Concrete catalysts — not efficacy promises
- Next Q3 2026 update around late October/November 2026 inferred quarterly cadence; verify consumables utilization and organic growth/margin consistency
- FY2027 guidance and proteomics integration around early2027 inferred annual cadence; China permissions/restrictions remain commercial/regulatory uncertainty, not a guaranteed reversal
Dated reported financial evidence
Dated reported actuals; not current balances or forward forecasts. Units: reported USD millions unless a share count, ratio or date is explicitly named. These are not October 4 bank balances.
- balanceDate
- 2026-06-28
- cashUSDm
- 1,040
- shortTermSecuritiesUSDm
- 128
- liquidPoolUSDm
- 1,168
- debtPrincipalUSDm
- 2,000
- debtCarryingUSDm
- 1,991
- currentDebtUSDm
- 500
- leasesBalanceSheetNoncurrentUSDm
- 454
- Q2RevenueUSDm
- 1,159
- Q2PriorRevenueUSDm
- 1,059
- H1RevenueUSDm
- 2,251
- Q2OperatingProfitGAAPUSDm
- 245
- Q2OperatingProfitAdjustedUSDm
- 260
- Q2NetIncomeGAAPUSDm
- 207
- Q2DilutedEPSGAAPUSD
- 1.35
- Q2DilutedEPSAdjustedUSD
- 1.31
- H1OCFUSDm
- 490
- H1CashCapexUSDm
- 78
- H1FCFDerivedUSDm
- 412
- H1SBCExpenseUSDm
- 133
- ordinaryShares
- 151,000,000
- ordinaryShareDate
- 2026-07-24
- Q2WeightedDilutedShares
- 153,000,000
- H1WeightedDilutedShares
- 154,000,000
- unvestedRSUshares
- 3,845,000
- estimatedPSUshares
- 1,583,000
Target burdens — static sensitivities, not forward fair value
Static reverse burden not forward fairvalue/funded hitcase; unknown actual current claims/cash not replaced by these dated balances.
1.35× baseline · USD 358.722
latest dated common-only
historical stocks; elapsed stub and target awards unknown · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 151
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 1,168
- datedDebtUSDm
- 2,000
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 54,167.022
- staticEVUSDm
- 54,999.022
completed300note plus conditional500repayment
repayment not independently observed; jointcashdebt arithmetic beforefees/stub · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 151
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 968
- datedDebtUSDm
- 1,800
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 54,167.022
- staticEVUSDm
- 54,999.022
2× baseline · USD 531.44
latest dated common-only
historical stocks; elapsed stub and target awards unknown · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 151
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 1,168
- datedDebtUSDm
- 2,000
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 80,247.44
- staticEVUSDm
- 81,079.44
completed300note plus conditional500repayment
repayment not independently observed; jointcashdebt arithmetic beforefees/stub · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 151
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 968
- datedDebtUSDm
- 1,800
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 80,247.44
- staticEVUSDm
- 81,079.44
5× baseline · USD 1,328.6
latest dated common-only
historical stocks; elapsed stub and target awards unknown · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 151
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 1,168
- datedDebtUSDm
- 2,000
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 200,618.601
- staticEVUSDm
- 201,450.601
completed300note plus conditional500repayment
repayment not independently observed; jointcashdebt arithmetic beforefees/stub · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 151
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 968
- datedDebtUSDm
- 1,800
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 200,618.601
- staticEVUSDm
- 201,450.601
Target-specific terminal shares: Unknown (null). Target-specific terminal cash: Unknown (null).
Discovery chart context
leadership · QQQ-relative discovery only, separate from AI100 runtime SPY scoring. Retained Oct1/Oct2 observations retrieved Oct4; no numerical rank against all incumbents.
- return20d
- 0.199
- return60d
- 0.371
- return120d
- 1.093
- distanceHigh
- -0.052
- range20d
- 0.401
- relative60d
- 0.344
Risks and unresolved inputs
- Actual October 4 opening cash/share drift from last balance/cover date; bounded signed elapsed-stub OCF, capex, working capital, award exercises and financing
- Price-dependent award/option/PSU and future issuance/replenishment bridge, vesting and exercise timing
- Compatible current expectations/valuation baseline and full retained boundary/top-five candidate economic cards; ordinal comparison is not verified by existing ticker orders
- September2026 $500m note repayment receipt, fees and intervening borrowing/buybacks
- Full current/noncurrent lease split and forward contractual cash schedule
- Fiscal2027 owner-income guide and normalized EPS reconciliation absent strategic gains/contingent consideration effects
- ILMN-Q2
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: Unknown — not supplied - ILMN-submissions
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: Unknown — not supplied - ILMN-10Q
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: Unknown — not supplied - ILMN-Aug17
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: Unknown — not supplied