October Upside Ranks
Qualitative relative target-touch selections · Not calibrated probabilities
Dated prices · targets are price touches, not forecasts · exact ranks are editorial judgments.
Grade legend, dates & research limits
Completed editorial grades · assessed October 6. Business = demonstrated commercial traction. Catalyst = clarity and timing of the next important test, not success odds. Target path = how demanding this list’s target is. These grades use the same rubric for all selected names; they are not native financial-model grades or statistical probabilities.
A strong / direct · B supported but conditional · C speculative or major gaps · D exceptional leap / weak bridge. A strong catalyst can fail. A fivefold target can have a D path even in a top-ranked moonshot.
Exact grading benchmarks & evidence dates
Business
How far the business inflection is demonstrated today, not source completeness.
- A — Broad, realized commercial growth or earnings; not just a plan.
- B — Real but early, concentrated or mixed operating traction.
- C — Primarily clinical/development or capacity optionality; limited realized economics.
- D — Retained facts undermine the proposed business inflection.
Catalyst
Specificity, observability and timing of a thesis-changing test inside the original window, not its chance of success.
- A — A scheduled or explicitly windowed material readout, launch or commercial ramp; repeated hard operating tests may qualify.
- B — Concrete delivery, orders or earnings tests, but diffuse timing or less discrete thesis change.
- C — A real milestone with important acceptance/economics/timing gaps.
- D — No supported material in-window test.
Target path
Burden of reaching THIS tier target from the dated baseline; not an absolute odds estimate.
- A — Comparatively direct earnings/recognition bridge in retained evidence; still conditional.
- B — Recognizable bridge, but meaningful premium, execution or share-claim sensitivity.
- C — Speculative extension or binary rerating beyond established economics; small-base elasticity is not a forecast.
- D — Exceptional leap far beyond retained cases, with major scale/valuation/financing obstacles.
No bell curve, numeric weights, A+ grades, probability conversion or grade-based reranking. Same rubric for incumbents and additions; target-path grades vary by tier. A catalyst can fail. No synchronized chart grading because technical coverage is not comparable across all 19.
Assessment October 6 of retained evidence, not an October 6 source refresh. Baseline October 1; existing remaining touch window October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027. Original source cutoff October 3; additions retrieved October 4; Bloom narrative retrieved October 5 UTC. Original publication dates remain attached to sources.
Original conservative research grades remain in each full story. Partial financial underwriting remains partial: completed qualitative grades do not certify current cash, target dilution, clinical efficacy or funded forecasts. No chart grade is invented from unmatched technical snapshots.
Targets use October 1, 2026 baseline quotes, which are not live prices. The price-touch window is October 4, 2026 to exclusive October 1, 2027, not the price at expiry. Exact ordinal differences are low-confidence editorial judgments; absolute likelihood may be low.
Original financial source cutoff: October 3, 2026, 07:14:12.687379 UTC. Biotech sources retrieved October 4 with original publication dates retained. Bloom’s power and policy narrative reviewed October 4 ET (sources retrieved October 5 UTC). Publication does not clear research or model limitations. No calibrated odds.
SDGR · Schrödinger
+35% Upside · #11Oct1 baseline: USD 30.46. Historical daily quote retrieved Oct4.
The investment story
Thesis
A wider Bunsen software launch and enterprise adoption could strengthen recurring sales, giving investors a clearer growth story.
What could move the stock
A wider Bunsen software launch and enterprise adoption could strengthen recurring sales, giving investors a clearer growth story.
Next catalyst
Expected full Bunsen commercial release by year-end 2026.
Major risk
The hosted-software transition can reduce reported revenue, and drug programs remain uncertain.
Editorial grades · October 6 assessment
Same rubric for every selected company. Business is demonstrated traction; Catalyst is the timing and clarity of a test, not its chance of success. Target path changes with the target burden.
+35% Upside
Business · B
Improving ACV supports demand, but falling GAAP software revenue during the hosted transition makes the inflection mixed.
Catalyst · A
The expected full Bunsen commercial release by year-end 2026 is a concrete product window, not a confirmed launch day.
Target path · B
Bunsen adoption and better recurring visibility could produce a 35% touch, but ACV must become recognized revenue and cash.
Strongest countercase
Adoption may not become cash earnings; clinical assets remain uncertain.
Confidence & coverage
Low for target touch and adjacent ordering; moderate for the descriptive assessment of retained facts. Partial financial underwriting; current cash and target-dependent dilution unresolved.
Grade evidence & preserved research grades
Editorial reader v2 is separate from native financial certification. The original conservative evidence/path grades below have not been upgraded or overwritten.
+35% Upside original research grades
Evidence: not supplied; operating pathway: not supplied; feasibility: not supplied.
- SDGR-10Q
Published: 2026-08-05 · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:05:02.306581+00:00 - SDGR-earnings8K
Published: 2026-08-05 · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:06:42.429066+00:00 - SDGR-facts
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:05:02.306649+00:00 - SDGR-release-sec
Published: 2026-08-05 · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:07:10.572516+00:00 - SDGR-release
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:04:38.234714+00:00 - SDGR-submissions
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:04:38.146829+00:00
Detailed research, financial evidence & sources
Business
Physics/AI software plus collaborative/proprietary drug discovery and contributions.
Financial quality
Q2 ACV +27% to $29.6m while GAAP software revenue fell 10% to $32.544m on hosted transition; neither alone measures demand. H1 software $68.104m, discovery $45.865m, contributions $3.507m. Q2 $5.975m GAAP profit includes $45.868m fair-value investment gain; recurring operating loss $41.547m. $66.976m investment sales in H1 are financing resource, not recurring OCF.
Claims and dilution
Include both common 65.641435m and limited common 9.164193m July29. $241.132m ATM remaining June30, no H1 sales. 15.205021m H1 antidilutive weighted awards are not dated total fully diluted claims. Current exact option/RSU total unresolved.
Guide / interpretation
FY2026 ACV $218-228m (+10-15%), drug discovery $65-75m raised by already-achieved $10m Ajax milestone; expenses below 2025. ACV not GAAP revenue. RPO $189.066m, approximately63% recognized next12mo; software RPO $87.156m, approximately76% next12mo. Not additive to separately modeled recognized revenue.
Countercase
Hosted transition can depress current reported revenue despite improved recurring visibility; stronger ACV and enterprise Bunsen adoption support upside independent of binary clinical success.
Concrete catalysts — not efficacy promises
- Bunsen full commercial release expected by end2026; early access launched July2026.
- BMS software agreement expands deployment but undisclosed incremental revenue.
- Ongoing SGR-1505/SGR-3515 Phase1; no retained specific future data day.
Dated reported financial evidence
US GAAP unaudited consolidated; flows 2026-01-01 through2026-06-30 inclusive; stocks June30 unless dated share cover. Units: reported USD millions unless a share count, ratio or date is explicitly named. These are not October 4 bank balances.
- cash
- 287.853
- securities
- 125.886
- liquid
- 413.739
- restricted
- 5.063
- debt
- Unknown (null)
- debt and finance lease
- Unknown (null)
- op leases
- 107.982
- revenue
- 117.476
- operating income
- -90.341
- net income
- -54.051
- ocf
- -48.904
- capex
- 2.869
- sbc ocf
- 17.867
- sbc expense
- 17.867
- shares
- 74,805,628
- share date
- 2026-07-29
- weighted
- 74,352,857
- rsus
- Unknown (null)
- options
- Unknown (null)
Target burdens — static sensitivities, not forward fair value
Static reverse burden not forward fairvalue/funded hitcase; unknown actual current claims/cash not replaced by these dated balances.
1.35× baseline · USD 41.121
latest dated common-only
historical stocks; elapsed stub and target awards unknown · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 74.806
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 413.739
- datedDebtUSDm
- Unknown (null)
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 3,076.082
- staticEVUSDm
- Unknown (null)
2× baseline · USD 60.92
latest dated common-only
historical stocks; elapsed stub and target awards unknown · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 74.806
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 413.739
- datedDebtUSDm
- Unknown (null)
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 4,557.159
- staticEVUSDm
- Unknown (null)
5× baseline · USD 152.3
latest dated common-only
historical stocks; elapsed stub and target awards unknown · NO target price-dependent conversion/award claim solved; leases not appended to lease-expensed revenue valuation; no terminal cash implied
- datedSharesM
- 74.806
- datedLiquidityUSDm
- 413.739
- datedDebtUSDm
- Unknown (null)
- requiredCommonEquityUSDm
- 11,392.897
- staticEVUSDm
- Unknown (null)
Target-specific terminal shares: Unknown (null). Target-specific terminal cash: Unknown (null).
Discovery chart context
leadership · QQQ-relative discovery only, separate from AI100 runtime SPY scoring. Retained Oct1/Oct2 observations retrieved Oct4; no numerical rank against all incumbents.
- return20d
- 0.471
- return60d
- 0.814
- return120d
- 1.66
- distanceHigh
- -0.061
- range20d
- 0.742
- relative60d
- 0.787
Risks and unresolved inputs
- Oct4 actual liquid balances
- Target-dependent dilution and future issuance
- Market expectations baseline
- Exact forecast peak cash
+35% Upside strongest countercase
HUBB has actual paid grid sales, a closed NSI acquisition and a modest retained24x adjusted route. SDGR GAAP software revenue declined10%, ACV is not recognized revenue, and Bunsen price/revenue uplift is undisclosed.
- SDGR-10Q
Published: 2026-08-05 · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:05:02.306581+00:00 - SDGR-earnings8K
Published: 2026-08-05 · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:06:42.429066+00:00 - SDGR-facts
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:05:02.306649+00:00 - SDGR-release-sec
Published: 2026-08-05 · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:07:10.572516+00:00 - SDGR-release
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:04:38.234714+00:00 - SDGR-submissions
Published: Unknown — undated / publication time not supplied · Retrieved: 2026-10-04T14:04:38.146829+00:00