Markets, Macro & Geopolitics

What happened: The U.S. Treasury said it would at least double planned purchases of longer-duration government debt to $4 billion per operation beginning in September. Relief was fleeting: the 10-year Treasury yield returned to 4.69% Thursday as oil, inflation and fiscal-supply concerns persisted; the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq 1.0%.

Why it earned coverage: Post-cutoff policy-flow change plus failed market transmission, directly affecting discount rates for long-duration AI and software assets.

Transmission: Treasury purchases reduce net duration supply at the margin, but a small flow program cannot offset fiscal borrowing, oil-driven inflation risk and required term premium. Higher long yields raise discount rates and financing costs even if the Fed does not tighten.

What happened: The Census Bureau reported July advance retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% month over month and up 5.0% year over year. The GDP-linked control group fell 0.4%; sales excluding gas stations and auto dealers also declined, while earlier momentum was revised down. Autos fell about 1.8%, online sales 2.2% and gasoline stations 0.9%, partly reflecting Prime Day and World Cup timing.

Why it earned coverage: The first post-PPI consumer-demand receipt materially lowered the starting momentum for Q3 consumption and changed the near-term growth/inflation policy mix.

Transmission: Softer nominal goods demand and a weaker GDP control group reduce immediate overheating pressure and support duration, but they also reduce earnings and growth momentum. Event timing and omitted services prevent a one-month recession inference.

What happened: After the prior cutoff, BLS reported July final-demand PPI unchanged month over month and up 4.7% year over year. Core PPI rose 0.2% month over month and 4.2% year over year; June headline PPI was revised to a 0.1% decline from the previously reported 0.3% decline. Portfolio-management services rose 6.5%, a component that feeds PCE under current methodology.

Why it earned coverage: The actual producer-inflation receipt arrived after yesterday's CPI/Fed dashboard item and materially changed the near-term hike-versus-hold probability tree.

Transmission: Softer producer prices reduce expected policy tightening and discount rates, while fuel costs and PCE-specific financial-service components can keep the Fed's preferred gauge above target.

What happened: Treasury is refunding about $96.3B of privately held notes/bonds and raising about $28.7B of new cash via $58B 3-year, $42B 10-year and $25B 30-year auctions. The 10-year auction is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EDT on August 12.

Why it earned coverage: August 5 Treasury quarterly refunding statement and today's 10-year auction.

Transmission: Supply absorption and term premium can offset inflation relief.

What happened: July CPI was reported at 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, with core at 0.2% and 2.5%; the July 29 FOMC held 3.50%–3.75% with three voters preferring a 25 bp hike and explicitly cited energy supply shocks.

Why it earned coverage: A softer inflation print immediately before PPI while Brent remains elevated by the Iran/Hormuz conflict.

Transmission: Oil and producer costs can reaccelerate inflation expectations, lift real/nominal yields and offset the valuation benefit of softer consumer inflation.