Realized construction throughput—not announced capex—best measures the near-term physical AI buildout, while commissioning still depends on power and entitlements.
Data-center shell spending crossed a $75 billion annualized pace
Analysis by Frank Locascio and TheBRRR Research
What happened
Census July construction data, parsed by Axios and corroborated by AGC, showed data-center construction put in place at an annualized pace above $75 billion, nearly 60% above July 2025. The measure covers physical shells rather than servers, memory or total project capex.
Why it earned coverage
Official construction-put-in-place data replaced announced capex with realized physical throughput.
Investment transmission
Construction put in place records actual installed physical work, which converts announced AI capex into demand for labor, power equipment, cooling and utility interconnection before servers are installed.
Affected exposures
Next observable receipt
August/September Census revisions, contractor backlogs, electrical/cooling lead times, utility-service milestones and cancellations.
What would invalidate it
Subsequent revisions reverse the surge, private office/data-center spending decelerates sharply or project cancellations rise before electrical and IT fit-out.