July CPI: 3.4% YoY vs 3.4% YoY expected (in line with expectations)
July CPI cooled to 3.4% YoY from 3.5% in June, matching consensus, with headline CPI up 0.1% MoM. Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and eased to 2.5% YoY, giving markets a softer inflation read without putting the Fed's September debate to bed.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
The report showed continued disinflation in core prices, but headline inflation stayed above target and energy was still up 14.7% YoY. That leaves the Fed split between weak labor data and inflation that is cooling, not solved.
📖 Why This Matters
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking the average change in prices consumers pay for goods and services. This 08/2026 reading came in in line with expectations at 3.4%, signaling neutral implications for Federal Reserve policy. This compares to the prior month's 3.5%. CPI data is closely watched as it directly influences Fed rate decisions and market expectations.
July CPI actual vs expected
| Release date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | CPI |
| Actual | 3.4% YoY |
| Expected | 3.4% YoY |
| Prior | 3.5% YoY |
| Expectation surprise | in line with expectations |
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FAQ
What was the July CPI result?
July CPI came in at 3.4% YoY versus 3.4% YoY expected, in line with expectations.
How did markets react to July CPI?
Stocks finished modestly higher after the softer print: Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.3%, Dow roughly flat.
🔗 Related Events
January CPI
2.4% vs 2.5% expected — lowest since May. Core at 2.5%, lowest since March 2021. June rate cut odds jumped to 70%.
February CPI
Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY, matching January, with a 0.3% monthly gain. Sticky shelter and food kept pressure on the Fed, but the print largely met expectations.
March CPI
Headline CPI jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY in March, exactly matching consensus, as gasoline and war-related energy pressure hit the print hard. Core CPI came in at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, softer than feared, which kept the print from becoming a full-blown policy shock.