October CPI: Results, market reaction, and key takeaway
October headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM, following 0.6% in September. Core CPI rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month. Shelter rose 0.3%, food 0.5%, and energy 0.7%. BLS withheld most year-over-year comparisons because October 2025 survey data were unavailable during the lapse in appropriations.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
💡 Key Takeaway
Slower energy inflation eased the headline pace, but core monthly inflation remained steady. The rate backdrop still matters for AI valuations; missing year-over-year figures should not be estimated or confused with evidence of productivity-led disinflation.
📖 Why This Matters
October inflation: does energy-driven pressure fade or spread?
October CPI actual vs expected
| Release date | Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | CPI |
| Actual | 0.4% MoM SA |
| Prior | 0.6% MoM SA |
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🔗 Related Events
January CPI
2.4% vs 2.5% expected — lowest since May. Core at 2.5%, lowest since March 2021. June rate cut odds jumped to 70%.
February CPI
Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY, matching January, with a 0.3% monthly gain. Sticky shelter and food kept pressure on the Fed, but the print largely met expectations.
March CPI
Headline CPI jumped 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY in March, exactly matching consensus, as gasoline and war-related energy pressure hit the print hard. Core CPI came in at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, softer than feared, which kept the print from becoming a full-blown policy shock.