FOMC Rate Decision: 3.63% midpoint vs 3.63% midpoint expected (in line with expectations)
The Fed held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25 bp hike. Warsh's statement kept the inflation fight front and center, citing elevated inflation, energy-linked supply shocks, solid activity, and strong productivity/capital investment.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
This was a hawkish hold, not a pivot. Three hike dissents made clear that inflation and supply-shock risks still outweigh the softer labor-market signals for a meaningful bloc of the Committee.
📖 Why This Matters
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets monetary policy for the United States, including the federal funds rate that influences borrowing costs throughout the economy. These meetings occur eight times per year and are among the most closely watched events in financial markets. The committee's decisions on interest rates, along with their projections and Chairman Powell's commentary, can significantly move markets as they signal the Fed's outlook on inflation, employment, and economic growth.
FOMC Rate Decision actual vs expected
| Release date | Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 14:00 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | FOMC |
| Actual | 3.63% midpoint |
| Expected | 3.63% midpoint |
| Prior | 3.63% midpoint |
| Expectation surprise | in line with expectations |
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FAQ
What was the FOMC Rate Decision result?
FOMC Rate Decision came in at 3.63% midpoint versus 3.63% midpoint expected, in line with expectations.
How did markets react to FOMC Rate Decision?
S&P 500 -1.5%, Nasdaq -1.7%, Dow -1,153 points; 10Y yield rose about 2 bps to 4.62% as markets read the hold as hawkish.
🔗 Related Events
FOMC Rate Decision
Rates held at 4.25-4.50%. Powell stayed hawkish, markets shrugged.
FOMC Rate Decision
The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%. Officials projected hotter inflation, elevated uncertainty tied to the Middle East, and a shallower easing path, with one dissent in favor of a cut.
FOMC Rate Decision
The Fed held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% and emphasized solid growth, low average job gains, elevated inflation, and Middle East uncertainty. No SEP at this meeting, so the statement and Powell tone carried the signal.