GDP Advance Q4 2025: 1.4% SAAR vs 2.3% SAAR expected (below expectations)
GDP slumped to 1.4% annualized — badly missing the 2.3% estimate. Full-year 2025 growth came in at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. Stagflation fears reignited.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
Worst GDP print in over a year. Consumer spending decelerated sharply while government spending kept the number from going negative. Stagflation narrative took hold.
📖 Why This Matters
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States, serving as the broadest indicator of economic activity. GDP releases come in three stages: Advance (first estimate), Second (preliminary), and Third (final). The annualized quarterly growth rate shows whether the economy is expanding or contracting, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth traditionally defining a recession.
GDP Advance Q4 2025 actual vs expected
| Release date | Friday, February 20, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | GDP |
| Actual | 1.4% SAAR |
| Expected | 2.3% SAAR |
| Prior | 3.1% SAAR |
| Expectation surprise | below expectations |
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FAQ
What was the GDP Advance Q4 2025 result?
GDP Advance Q4 2025 came in at 1.4% SAAR versus 2.3% SAAR expected, below expectations.
How did markets react to GDP Advance Q4 2025?
SPY -1.2%, BTC -3.8%, 10Y yield dropped to 4.15% as rate cut bets surged.
🔗 Related Events
GDP Second Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 growth was revised down to 0.7% annualized from 1.4%. Consumer spending and investment were marked lower, reinforcing the slowdown story.
GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 GDP was revised down again to 0.5% annualized from 0.7%, below the 0.6% consensus. The final print confirmed the economy ended 2025 with even less momentum than previously thought as consumption and private investment looked softer than initially reported.
GDP Advance Q1 2026
Q1 GDP grew 2.0% annualized, up from Q4's 0.5% but below the 2.2% consensus. AI-linked investment and government spending helped, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending cooled.