GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025: 0.5% SAAR vs 0.6% SAAR expected (below expectations)
Q4 GDP was revised down again to 0.5% annualized from 0.7%, below the 0.6% consensus. The final print confirmed the economy ended 2025 with even less momentum than previously thought as consumption and private investment looked softer than initially reported.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
The sequential downgrades mattered. Growth was not collapsing, but the economy looked clearly softer heading into Q1.
📖 Why This Matters
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States, serving as the broadest indicator of economic activity. GDP releases come in three stages: Advance (first estimate), Second (preliminary), and Third (final). The annualized quarterly growth rate shows whether the economy is expanding or contracting, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth traditionally defining a recession.
GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025 actual vs expected
| Release date | Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | GDP |
| Actual | 0.5% SAAR |
| Expected | 0.6% SAAR |
| Prior | 0.7% SAAR |
| Expectation surprise | below expectations |
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FAQ
What was the GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025 result?
GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025 came in at 0.5% SAAR versus 0.6% SAAR expected, below expectations.
How did markets react to GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025?
Bonds caught a bid as weaker growth offset some inflation angst.
🔗 Related Events
GDP Advance Q4 2025
GDP slumped to 1.4% annualized — badly missing the 2.3% estimate. Full-year 2025 growth came in at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. Stagflation fears reignited.
GDP Second Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 growth was revised down to 0.7% annualized from 1.4%. Consumer spending and investment were marked lower, reinforcing the slowdown story.
GDP Advance Q1 2026
Q1 GDP grew 2.0% annualized, up from Q4's 0.5% but below the 2.2% consensus. AI-linked investment and government spending helped, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending cooled.