Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025: 3% YoY vs 2.9% YoY expected (above expectations)
Core PCE jumped to 3.0% YoY (from 2.8%), with hot 0.4% MoM reading. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge moving the wrong direction — rate cuts pushed out further.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
Ugly combo: weak GDP + hot inflation = textbook stagflation signal. Core PCE re-accelerating killed the June rate cut narrative. Savings rate declined too.
📖 Why This Matters
Consumer wallets post-holidays: empty but optimistic. PCE buried in the fine print.
Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025 actual vs expected
| Release date | Friday, February 20, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | PCE |
| Actual | 3% YoY |
| Expected | 2.9% YoY |
| Prior | 2.8% YoY |
| Expectation surprise | above expectations |
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FAQ
What was the Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025 result?
Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025 came in at 3% YoY versus 2.9% YoY expected, above expectations.
How did markets react to Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025?
Combined with GDP miss: SPY -1.2%, Gold +1.5% safe haven bid, 2Y yield spiked.
🔗 Related Events
Personal Income/Outlays Jan 2026
Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in January, while core PCE came in around 3.1% YoY. The inflation data matched estimates, but it stayed too firm for an easy Fed pivot.
Personal Income/Outlays Feb 2026
Headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM in February, in line with expectations, while annual PCE held at 2.8% and core PCE eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.1%. Spending stayed solid, but inflation was still too sticky for comfort.
Personal Income/Outlays Mar 2026
Headline PCE inflation accelerated to 3.5% YoY and 0.7% MoM in March, while core PCE hit 3.2% YoY and 0.3% MoM. Nominal spending rose 0.9%, but real PCE rose only 0.2% as energy pressure ate into purchasing power.