Personal Income/Outlays Mar 2026: 3.5% YoY vs 3.5% YoY expected (in line with expectations)
Headline PCE inflation accelerated to 3.5% YoY and 0.7% MoM in March, while core PCE hit 3.2% YoY and 0.3% MoM. Nominal spending rose 0.9%, but real PCE rose only 0.2% as energy pressure ate into purchasing power.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge moved the wrong way, driven by goods and energy. It kept the policy backdrop uncomfortable even though the monthly core reading matched consensus.
📖 Why This Matters
March madness extended to consumer spending — brackets and bank accounts both busted.
Personal Income/Outlays Mar 2026 actual vs expected
| Release date | Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | PCE |
| Actual | 3.5% YoY |
| Expected | 3.5% YoY |
| Prior | 2.8% YoY |
| Expectation surprise | in line with expectations |
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FAQ
What was the Personal Income/Outlays Mar 2026 result?
Personal Income/Outlays Mar 2026 came in at 3.5% YoY versus 3.5% YoY expected, in line with expectations.
How did markets react to Personal Income/Outlays Mar 2026?
Equities still finished higher after the data; rates dipped slightly as the softer GDP miss shared the tape with in-line PCE.
🔗 Related Events
Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025
Core PCE jumped to 3.0% YoY (from 2.8%), with hot 0.4% MoM reading. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge moving the wrong direction — rate cuts pushed out further.
Personal Income/Outlays Jan 2026
Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in January, while core PCE came in around 3.1% YoY. The inflation data matched estimates, but it stayed too firm for an easy Fed pivot.
Personal Income/Outlays Feb 2026
Headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM in February, in line with expectations, while annual PCE held at 2.8% and core PCE eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.1%. Spending stayed solid, but inflation was still too sticky for comfort.