Personal Income/Outlays Sep 2026: Results, market reaction, and key takeaway
September PCE prices rose 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY. Core PCE rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Personal income rose 0.2%, nominal spending rose 0.5%, and real spending was essentially unchanged. August headline PCE increased 0.3% MoM.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
💡 Key Takeaway
Sticky monthly inflation keeps financing and discount rates relevant for AI equities. Nominal spending growth did not translate into meaningful real consumption growth; this report alone does not establish a change in long-run productivity-led disinflation.
📖 Why This Matters
September PCE lands with Q3 GDP — the Fed will have already decided.
Personal Income/Outlays Sep 2026 actual vs expected
| Release date | Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | PCE |
| Actual | 0.5% MoM |
| Prior | 0.3% MoM |
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🔗 Related Events
Personal Income/Outlays Dec 2025
Core PCE jumped to 3.0% YoY (from 2.8%), with hot 0.4% MoM reading. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge moving the wrong direction — rate cuts pushed out further.
Personal Income/Outlays Jan 2026
Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in January, while core PCE came in around 3.1% YoY. The inflation data matched estimates, but it stayed too firm for an easy Fed pivot.
Personal Income/Outlays Feb 2026
Headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM in February, in line with expectations, while annual PCE held at 2.8% and core PCE eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.1%. Spending stayed solid, but inflation was still too sticky for comfort.