GDP Second Estimate Q1 2026: Results, market reaction, and key takeaway
Q1 real GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualized from the 2.0% advance estimate. BEA said the downgrade mainly reflected softer investment and consumer spending, even as exports, investment, consumer spending, and government outlays all still contributed to growth.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
The growth rebound from Q4 stayed intact but looked less powerful. The downward revisions to investment and consumer spending made the expansion feel more fragile under the surface.
📖 Why This Matters
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States, serving as the broadest indicator of economic activity. GDP releases come in three stages: Advance (first estimate), Second (preliminary), and Third (final). The annualized quarterly growth rate shows whether the economy is expanding or contracting, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth traditionally defining a recession.
GDP Second Estimate Q1 2026 actual vs expected
| Release date | Thursday, May 28, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | GDP |
| Actual | 1.6% SAAR |
| Prior | 2% SAAR |
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FAQ
How did markets react to GDP Second Estimate Q1 2026?
Stocks closed at fresh records while the 10Y yield fell below 4.46% as softer inflation data outweighed the GDP markdown.
🔗 Related Events
GDP Advance Q4 2025
GDP slumped to 1.4% annualized — badly missing the 2.3% estimate. Full-year 2025 growth came in at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. Stagflation fears reignited.
GDP Second Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 growth was revised down to 0.7% annualized from 1.4%. Consumer spending and investment were marked lower, reinforcing the slowdown story.
GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 GDP was revised down again to 0.5% annualized from 0.7%, below the 0.6% consensus. The final print confirmed the economy ended 2025 with even less momentum than previously thought as consumption and private investment looked softer than initially reported.