GDP Third Estimate Q1 2026: 2.1% SAAR vs 1.7% SAAR expected (above expectations)
Q1 real GDP was revised up to 2.1% annualized from the 1.6% second estimate, beating the 1.7% Action Economics consensus. The upgrade came mostly from a smaller import drag, but consumer spending was revised down to a weak 0.4% annualized pace.
📊 Results
Actual Reading
Market Reaction
💡 Key Takeaway
The headline growth revision looked strong, but the quality was less bullish: domestic demand was revised down to 1.7% and consumers looked softer, while inflation gauges in the GDP report stayed elevated.
📖 Why This Matters
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States, serving as the broadest indicator of economic activity. GDP releases come in three stages: Advance (first estimate), Second (preliminary), and Third (final). The annualized quarterly growth rate shows whether the economy is expanding or contracting, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth traditionally defining a recession.
GDP Third Estimate Q1 2026 actual vs expected
| Release date | Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 08:30 ET |
|---|---|
| Event type | GDP |
| Actual | 2.1% SAAR |
| Expected | 1.7% SAAR |
| Prior | 1.6% SAAR |
| Expectation surprise | above expectations |
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FAQ
What was the GDP Third Estimate Q1 2026 result?
GDP Third Estimate Q1 2026 came in at 2.1% SAAR versus 1.7% SAAR expected, above expectations.
How did markets react to GDP Third Estimate Q1 2026?
Stocks were mixed-to-lower as tech weakness offset relief from lower yields; S&P 500 slipped about 0.4% and Nasdaq fell about 1.3%.
🔗 Related Events
GDP Advance Q4 2025
GDP slumped to 1.4% annualized — badly missing the 2.3% estimate. Full-year 2025 growth came in at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. Stagflation fears reignited.
GDP Second Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 growth was revised down to 0.7% annualized from 1.4%. Consumer spending and investment were marked lower, reinforcing the slowdown story.
GDP Third Estimate Q4 2025
Q4 GDP was revised down again to 0.5% annualized from 0.7%, below the 0.6% consensus. The final print confirmed the economy ended 2025 with even less momentum than previously thought as consumption and private investment looked softer than initially reported.