Upside RanksStocksAEHR

Aehr Test Systems

Latest active analysis · July 2026
Scoring glossary →
Entry / Current:$84.430%
Market Cap:$2.7B

Latest List Rankings

2x List
Month:July 2026
Rank:#5
Probability:10.2%
5x List
Month:July 2026
Rank:#2
Probability:8.7%

Current Synopsis

Aehr is the purest small-cap test-equipment moonshot in the June list. The source-backed catalyst is unusually concrete: a record $41M follow-on order from a lead hyperscale AI customer and second-half bookings above $92M. The thesis is that package/wafer-level burn-in becomes more valuable as AI ASICs, silicon photonics, silicon carbide, and advanced devices require higher reliability. It leads the 5x list because of asymmetry, not certainty.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap100/100

2x model: valuation-to-growth is 38.3/100 with convexity 75.0/100; that means the score is rewarding growth-adjusted asymmetry, not cheapness in isolation. 5x model: market-cap asymmetry is 100.0/100 at roughly $2.9B current market cap, which is why size matters more here than business quality alone.

Earnings Momentum25.8/100

The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth -43.7%, gross margin 30.7%, operating margin -41.0%, profit margin -25.2%, FCF margin -16.5%. Component support: growth acceleration 20.5, survivability 57.6.

Catalyst Edge88/100

Aehr's catalyst is reliability testing for more complex power and AI-adjacent devices. The thesis is not that Aehr is already a large AI winner; it is that a small supplier can re-rate violently if customers decide its wafer-level test systems are necessary for higher-volume advanced devices.

Technical Setup43/100

July technical setup is 43/100 from refreshed price history: 20-day return -25.3%, 60-day return 61.9%, 120-day return 249.2%, distance from 52-week high -33.3%. Above 50dma: false; above 200dma: true.

Social Momentum74.4/100

For July this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 136.8%, call/put OI 0.7, call/put volume 1.2, OTM call OI share 34.9%, short % float 16.1%, short ratio 1.4. Component support: options asymmetry 69.5, squeeze bonus 3.0.

Goldilox Upside90.3/100

The base Goldilox math is roughly $2.9B today versus a $7.5B bull case, or about 2.58x. That is not a full 5x base case. Aehr tops the 5x list because its small size, volatility, and order-cycle optionality create a credible stretch case if a new demand cycle materializes.

Current Path to Target

2x List Target

A 2x is cleaner: new orders, improved visibility, and evidence that demand is broadening beyond one narrow customer/product cycle.

5x List Target

A 5x requires Aehr to move from niche supplier to critical test-equipment beneficiary across AI-adjacent silicon carbide, photonics, and advanced semiconductor reliability markets. The base bull case is smaller than 5x; the 5x case needs a new order cycle and broader customer adoption.

Current Key Risk

Aehr is small, order-driven, and customer-concentrated. Revenue can be lumpy, orders can slip, and weak FY2027 conversion would quickly undermine the thesis. This is risk-capital only, not a quality compounder.

Current Key Metrics

July quant market cap
$2.7B
Goldilox bull market cap
$7.5B
Normalized Goldilox multiple
2.58x
AI thesis / Catalyst Edge
84 / 88
BRRR list placement
2x rank #5 (quant score 75.3), 5x rank #2 (quant score 89.1)
Primary drivers
April 16, 2026 record $41M follow-on production order from lead hyperscale customer for package-level burn-in of custom AI processor ASICs used in data-center training and inference workloads.; Second-half FY26 bookings exceeded $92M as of April 16, already above the high side of the previously increased $60M-$80M expectation.; Q3 FY26 bookings were $37.2M with book-to-bill above 3.5x; effective backlog including bookings after quarter-end was $50.9M.
Cut conditions
Lead hyperscale AI customer pushes out Sonoma deliveries or next-gen ASIC production.; FY27 revenue/backlog guidance fails to reflect the $92M+ second-half bookings ramp.
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps6
Months4
Best rank#1
Best prob11.1%
MonthJuly 2026
List2x List
Rank#5
Probability10.2%
MonthJuly 2026
List5x List
Rank#2
Probability8.7%
MonthJune 2026
List2x List
Rank#5
Probability10.2%
MonthJune 2026
List5x List
Rank#1
Probability11.1%
MonthMay 2026
List2x List
Rank#10
Probability8.6%
MonthApril 2026
List5x List
Rank#4
Probability6.2%

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