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AIXTRON SE

Latest active analysis · May 2026
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Current Price:$45.900%Entry: $45.90
Market Cap:$5.2B

Latest List Rankings

2x List
Month:May 2026
Rank:#12
Probability:8.1%

Current Synopsis

AIXTRON is a cyclical semiconductor-equipment name with a real AI-infrastructure angle through compound semiconductors, especially optoelectronics tools used for lasers in optical data communication. The company is not a direct AI compute winner; it is upstream equipment exposure to the physical-layer buildout behind AI networking. Q1 2026 reported revenue was weak, but the order book improved sharply. Revenue fell to €59.4M, down 47% YoY, yet order intake rose 30% YoY to €171.4M. The important detail: optoelectronics accounted for almost 70% of Q1 order intake, or €118.0M, driven by strong multi-tool customer orders. Management also raised FY2026 guidance, suggesting the weak Q1 is more timing/seasonality than thesis break.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap43.3/100

Value Gap score from the May refreshed model: 43.3/100.

Earnings Momentum60/100

Earnings Momentum score from the May refreshed model: 60.0/100.

Catalyst Edge68/100

May 2x refresh: AIXTRON’s catalyst is the optoelectronics order inflection. Q1 2026 order intake was €171.4M, up 30% YoY, while equipment backlog rose to €359.1M from €307.9M YoY and €257.8M at FY2025 year-end. Optoelectronics was nearly 70% of Q1 order intake, or €118.0M. Q1 equipment revenue mix was more than 52% optoelectronics, especially lasers for optical data communication and 3D sensing. AI cluster growth increases optical data-communication laser demand; AIXTRON benefits through upstream compound-semi manufacturing equipment.

Technical Setup80/100

Technical Setup score from the May refreshed model: 80.0/100.

Social Momentum46.8/100

May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 46.8/100, built from Google 50.0; Reddit 40.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 50.0; Short interest 45.0. Divergence read: Buzz falling (47) but price up (+10.5%) = EXHAUSTION.

Goldilox Upside37.5/100

The 2x path depends on AIXTRON rerating from a mixed/soft power-semiconductor equipment cycle into a cleaner AI-optics equipment beneficiary. The key is optoelectronics orders converting into revenue from Q2 onward while SiC/GaN stops dragging sentiment. The existing model bull case is roughly $15B market cap, about 2.9x current BRRR-implied market cap, so a 2x requires order conversion and better investor recognition but not a heroic mega-cap outcome.

Current Path to Target

2x List Target

The 2x path depends on AIXTRON rerating from a mixed/soft power-semiconductor equipment cycle into a cleaner AI-optics equipment beneficiary. The key is optoelectronics orders converting into revenue from Q2 onward while SiC/GaN stops dragging sentiment. The existing model bull case is roughly $15B market cap, about 2.9x current BRRR-implied market cap, so a 2x requires order conversion and better investor recognition but not a heroic mega-cap outcome.

Current Key Risk

This is still lumpy capex equipment. Q1 revenue and EBIT were weak, SiC demand remains soft, GaN is only stable at a low level, and customer shipment timing can make the AI-optics thesis look premature.

Current Key Metrics

Price / Market Cap
~€46.98 / ~€5.3B
FY2025 revenue
€556.6M
FY2025 EBIT
€100.3M
Q1 2026 revenue
€59.4M, down 47% YoY
Q1 2026 EBIT
-€22.3M
Q1 2026 net result
-€21.9M
Q1 2026 EPS
-€0.19
Q1 2026 free cash flow
€48.5M
FY2026 guidance
€560M ± €30M revenue; ~42% gross margin; 17%-20% EBIT margin
Sources
AIXTRON publications; Q1 2026 report; 2025 annual report
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps2
Months2
Best rank#12
Best prob10.3%
MonthMay 2026
List2x List
Rank#12
Prob8.1%
MonthApril 2026
List2x List
Rank#12
Prob10.3%

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