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Aeluma, Inc.

Latest active analysis · June 2026
Scoring glossary →
Entry / Current:$21.580%
Market Cap:$395.0M

Latest List Rankings

5x List
Month:June 2026
Rank:#2
Probability:8.7%

Current Synopsis

Aeluma is the venture-style name on the 5x list. It is a pre-scale photonics/semiconductor company with exposure to quantum-dot lasers, sensing, and advanced optical integration — all potentially relevant to future AI infrastructure. The attraction is size and optionality, not proof. At a sub-$500M market cap, small commercial wins can matter; the trade-off is very low visibility and high execution risk.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap88/100

5x model: market-cap asymmetry is 88.0/100 at roughly $395.0M current market cap, which is why size matters more here than business quality alone.

Earnings Momentum35.2/100

The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth -2.6%, gross margin 37.7%, operating margin -173.9%, profit margin -115.5%, FCF margin -8.5%. Component support: explosive growth 35.2, survival 80.9.

Catalyst Edge69/100

ALMU's catalyst is optionality in photonics and advanced optical integration. The argument is compelling only if framed correctly: this is not a proven AI infrastructure supplier today. It is a small public venture bet on technologies that could become more valuable as AI systems push optical interconnect and sensing requirements higher.

Technical Setup60.1/100

Technical setup comes from price action, not opinion: 20-day return -15.6%, 60-day return 37.3%, 120-day return 33.7%, 60-day relative strength vs QQQ 15.9%, 1-year max drawdown -55.4%, distance from 52-week high -32.1%, 60-day annualized volatility 163.1%. Above 50dma: True; above 200dma: True.

Social Momentum85.5/100

For June this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 143.5%, call/put OI 2.2, call/put volume 3.5, OTM call OI share 44.9%, short % float 23.8%, short ratio 1.5. Component support: options/squeeze 85.5.

Goldilox Upside88.5/100

The base Goldilox math is roughly $395M today versus a $1.0B bull case, or about 2.53x. The 5x label reflects stretch-case optionality from a tiny base, not a high-confidence base-case forecast. The page should make that distinction explicit because ALMU is riskier than the probability number alone implies.

Current Path to Target

5x List Target

A 5x requires Aeluma to convert photonics R&D into real commercial demand, show that its technology belongs in AI/optical infrastructure supply chains, and raise capital without destroying the upside. This is a low-probability, high-convexity setup.

Current Key Risk

This is the riskiest top-three 5x name. Commercial traction is still early, revenue visibility is limited, and the stock can fail even if the technology is interesting. Position sizing should reflect venture-like downside.

Current Key Metrics

June quant market cap
$395.0M
Goldilox bull market cap
$1.0B
Normalized Goldilox multiple
2.53x
AI thesis / Catalyst Edge
61 / 69
BRRR list placement
5x rank #13 (quant score 67.4)
Primary drivers
Cash and equivalents were $37.8M at March 31, 2026, significant relative to current burn and revenue scale.; Aeluma secured six new development engagements totaling $5M and more than $4M of recent contracts for quantum dot lasers/materials.; Management cites AI data-center photonics supply-chain constraints as creating urgency for its technology.
Cut conditions
Cut if new contracts remain R&D-only with no commercial roadmap by the next two updates.; Demote if cash burn accelerates materially or FY2026 guidance is cut again.
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps2
Months2
Best rank#2
Best prob8.7%
MonthJune 2026
List5x List
Rank#2
Probability8.7%
MonthMay 2026
List5x List
Rank#3
Probability7.3%

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