Upside RanksStocksALMU

Aeluma, Inc.

Latest active analysis · May 2026
Scoring glossary →
Current Price:$19.410%Entry: $19.41
Market Cap:$350M

Latest List Rankings

5x List
Month:May 2026
Rank:#3
Probability:7.3%

Current Synopsis

Aeluma is a pre-scale photonics platform company trying to solve a hard AI/defense hardware problem: getting compound-semiconductor performance onto scalable silicon-style manufacturing. Its pitch is heterogeneous integration — combining materials such as quantum dot lasers and AlGaAs nonlinear photonics with 200mm/300mm wafer paths that can support volume production. That matters because AI interconnect, co-packaged optics, 3D sensing, quantum communication, and defense photonics all need better lasers and detectors without fragile bespoke supply chains. ALMU is still early: FY2026 revenue guidance is only $4-6M. But recent U.S. government contracts over $4M, work with Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical Advanced Technology, 35 issued/pending patents, and early sales orders give it a path from R&D validation toward commercial traction.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap43.9/100

The setup still offers a favorable risk/reward versus consensus if the ai components thesis keeps working.

Earnings Momentum60/100

AI supply chain spending broadens down-stack

Catalyst Edge54/100

May refresh: ALMU’s Catalyst Edge was reduced because the AI data-center angle remains early-stage, but the optionality is real. The April 2026 award of more than $4M in U.S. Government contracts is material relative to FY2026 revenue guidance of $4-6M and directly funds quantum materials / laser scaling. The contract work also pulls in Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical Advanced Technology, giving ALMU manufacturing-partner validation. Q2 FY2026 revenue was $1.3M, mostly R&D contracts, with $38.6M cash at Dec. 31, 2025.

Technical Setup40/100

Current setup is based on the May refresh using live price, beta, and volatility inputs. Beta 1.00 and annualized volatility 121.8% influence the more aggressive tiers.

Social Momentum54.2/100

May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 54.2/100, built from Google 50.0; Reddit 40.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 95.0; Short interest 50.0. Divergence read: Buzz falling (54) but price up (+23.6%) = EXHAUSTION.

Goldilox Upside100/100

The 5x path is commercialization leverage. If ALMU converts government-funded demonstrations into customer-qualified products for AI datacom, CPO lasers, sensing, or defense photonics, revenue could move from single-digit millions to a platform-company curve. The market will not wait for GAAP profitability if investors believe ALMU owns a scalable compound-on-silicon manufacturing recipe with real customers and partners — but that is still a speculative bridge, not proven operating traction.

Current Path to Target

2x List Target

The doubling path depends on the market underwriting a stronger AI demand regime plus clean execution. Goldilox bull cap: $12.0B (34.25x current).

5x List Target

The 5x path is commercialization leverage. If ALMU converts government-funded demonstrations into customer-qualified products for AI datacom, CPO lasers, sensing, or defense photonics, revenue could move from single-digit millions to a platform-company curve. The market will not wait for GAAP profitability if investors believe ALMU owns a scalable compound-on-silicon manufacturing recipe with real customers and partners — but that is still a speculative bridge, not proven operating traction.

Current Key Risk

Commercial timing and dilution. ALMU has promising technology but minimal product revenue, ongoing losses, and a $50M at-the-market equity facility filed in March 2026.

Current Key Metrics

Price / Market Cap
~$22.97 / ~$415M on Apr. 30, 2026
Q2 FY2026 revenue
$1.3M, primarily R&D contracts
TTM revenue
~$5.2M
TTM net loss
~$2.7M
TTM EPS
-$0.13
Forward EPS estimate
-$0.17
FY2026 revenue guidance
$4-6M
Cash
$38.6M at Dec. 31, 2025
April 2026 contracts
>$4M from U.S. Government for quantum materials and lasers
IP
35 issued and pending patents cited by company
Dilution watch
March 2026 ATM up to $50M
Sources
Aeluma Q2 FY2026 release; Aeluma government-contract release; Aeluma technology materials; SEC 8-K; Yahoo Finance quote data
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps1
Months1
Best rank#3
Best prob7.3%
MonthMay 2026
List5x List
Rank#3
Prob7.3%

Subscribe for monthly updates on this stock and the full rankings

Keep the latest thesis current, while the appearance history shows how conviction evolved over time.

Subscribe Free →