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Aeluma, Inc.

Latest active analysis · July 2026
Scoring glossary →
Entry / Current:$20.500%
Market Cap:$375.3M

Latest List Rankings

5x List
Month:July 2026
Rank:#1
Probability:11.1%
2x List
Month:July 2026
Rank:#10
Probability:8.6%

Current Synopsis

Aeluma is the venture-style photonics name in the 5x list. The verified appeal is early commercial pull: more than $4M of recent quantum-dot laser/materials contracts, six development engagements totaling $5M, and enough cash to keep pushing commercialization. The stock belongs here because a tiny market cap can move violently on proof of scale, not because the business is already proven.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap88/100

5x model: market-cap asymmetry is 88.0/100 at roughly $395.0M current market cap, which is why size matters more here than business quality alone.

Earnings Momentum35.2/100

The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth -2.6%, gross margin 37.7%, operating margin -173.9%, profit margin -115.5%, FCF margin -8.5%. Component support: explosive growth 35.2, survival 80.9.

Catalyst Edge69/100

ALMU's catalyst is optionality in photonics and advanced optical integration. The argument is compelling only if framed correctly: this is not a proven AI infrastructure supplier today. It is a small public venture bet on technologies that could become more valuable as AI systems push optical interconnect and sensing requirements higher.

Technical Setup43/100

July technical setup is 43/100 from refreshed price history: 20-day return -22.8%, 60-day return 74.7%, 120-day return 5.9%, distance from 52-week high -35.5%. Above 50dma: false; above 200dma: true.

Social Momentum85.5/100

For July this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 143.5%, call/put OI 2.2, call/put volume 3.5, OTM call OI share 44.9%, short % float 23.8%, short ratio 1.5. Component support: options/squeeze 85.5.

Goldilox Upside88.5/100

The base Goldilox math is roughly $395M today versus a $1.0B bull case, or about 2.53x. The 5x label reflects stretch-case optionality from a tiny base, not a high-confidence base-case forecast. The page should make that distinction explicit because ALMU is riskier than the probability number alone implies.

Current Path to Target

5x List Target

A 5x requires Aeluma to convert photonics R&D into real commercial demand, show that its technology belongs in AI/optical infrastructure supply chains, and raise capital without destroying the upside. This is a low-probability, high-convexity setup.

2x List Target

The July 2x path requires more than a normal rerating: Aeluma is the venture-style photonics name in the 5x list. The stock needs sustained evidence that the AI catalyst is translating into durable revenue and margin expansion, while the refreshed July market cap still leaves room for a credible doubling if execution stays clean.

Current Key Risk

This is the riskiest top-three 5x name. Revenue is still mostly R&D-contract scale, commercial visibility is limited, and the stock can fail even if the technology is interesting. Position sizing should reflect venture-like downside.

Current Key Metrics

July quant market cap
$375.3M
Goldilox bull market cap
$1.0B
Normalized Goldilox multiple
2.53x
AI thesis / Catalyst Edge
61 / 69
BRRR list placement
2x rank #10 (quant score 71.1), 5x rank #1 (quant score 89.9)
Primary drivers
Cash and equivalents were $37.8M at March 31, 2026, significant relative to current burn and revenue scale.; Aeluma secured six new development engagements totaling $5M and more than $4M of recent contracts for quantum dot lasers/materials.; Management cites AI data-center photonics supply-chain constraints as creating urgency for its technology.
Cut conditions
Cut if new contracts remain R&D-only with no commercial roadmap by the next two updates.; Demote if cash burn accelerates materially or FY2026 guidance is cut again.
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps4
Months3
Best rank#1
Best prob11.1%
MonthJuly 2026
List2x List
Rank#10
Probability8.6%
MonthJuly 2026
List5x List
Rank#1
Probability11.1%
MonthJune 2026
List5x List
Rank#2
Probability8.7%
MonthMay 2026
List5x List
Rank#3
Probability7.3%

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