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Arista Networks, Inc.

Latest active analysis · June 2026
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Entry / Current:$159.470%
Market Cap:$200.8B

Latest List Rankings

+35% List
Month:June 2026
Rank:#6
Probability:37.1%

Current Synopsis

Arista is the Ethernet scale-out networking winner in the June +35% list. AI clusters need fast, reliable, programmable networks, and Arista sits directly in that layer. The argument is straightforward: if Ethernet keeps gaining share in AI scale-out, cloud titans keep spending, and margins hold, Arista can still compound from a high base. The risk is that the market already understands most of this.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap56.6/100

+35% model: valuation sanity is 56.6/100, supported by EV/sales 19.4x, FCF yield 2.2%, gross margin 63.5%, profit margin 38.3%.

Earnings Momentum86.4/100

The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 35.1%, earnings growth 25.0%, gross margin 63.5%, operating margin 42.7%, profit margin 38.3%, FCF margin 44.9%. Component support: growth consistency 86.4.

Catalyst Edge73/100

Arista's catalyst is the Ethernet battle inside AI clusters. If hyperscalers prefer open Ethernet fabrics over more proprietary networking stacks, Arista has a clean way to participate in AI scale-out without taking chip-cycle risk. The thesis is strong, but customer concentration and competitive pressure keep it in the +35% lane rather than the higher-convexity lists.

Technical Setup64.2/100

Technical setup comes from price action, not opinion: 20-day return -7.7%, 60-day return 14.4%, 120-day return 24.0%, 60-day relative strength vs QQQ -7.0%, 1-year max drawdown -28.3%, distance from 52-week high -11.3%, 60-day annualized volatility 58.8%. Above 50dma: True; above 200dma: True.

Social Momentum89.5/100

For June this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 57.9%, call/put OI 1.4, call/put volume 1.8, OTM call OI share 45.6%, short % float 2.0%, short ratio 1.8. Component support: options confirmation 89.5.

Goldilox Upside55.7/100

The Goldilox case is roughly $200.8B today versus a $320.0B bull-case market cap, or about 1.59x. That gives credible +35% upside if AI networking momentum continues, but the starting size and already-recognized quality limit true 2x/5x asymmetry.

Current Path to Target

+35% List Target

+35% is credible if cloud titan AI networking spend accelerates, Ethernet wins more AI-cluster mindshare, gross margins stay resilient, and campus/enterprise softness does not dilute the AI narrative. The stock needs continued AI networking proof, not just general networking strength.

Current Key Risk

AI networking demand can be lumpy and customer concentrated. NVIDIA networking, white-box alternatives, hyperscaler bargaining power, or margin pressure from AI mix could cap the multiple. Arista is high quality, but not undiscovered.

Current Key Metrics

June quant market cap
$200.8B
Goldilox bull market cap
$320.0B
Normalized Goldilox multiple
1.59x
AI thesis / Catalyst Edge
92 / 73
BRRR list placement
35% rank #7 (quant score 78.3)
Primary drivers
Ethernet adoption in large AI clusters; Cloud titan spending and order visibility; High free-cash-flow margins and net-cash balance sheet
Cut conditions
Demote if cloud titan growth slows materially or AI cluster commentary becomes less specific; Cut from 2x list if gross margin guidance compresses without clear scale benefits
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps1
Months1
Best rank#6
Best prob37.1%
MonthJune 2026
List+35% List
Rank#6
Probability37.1%

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