Applied Digital Corporation
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Applied Digital is a scarce-powered-capacity story, not a clean software-like AI winner. The company has announced large take-or-pay leases and more than 1 GW of contracted AI Factory capacity, which gives the upside case real substance. The equity case still depends on execution: financing, construction, power delivery, customer ramps, and dilution discipline all have to work.
Current Pillar Scores
2x model: valuation-to-growth is 72.4/100 with convexity 73.0/100; that means the score is rewarding growth-adjusted asymmetry, not cheapness in isolation. 5x model: market-cap asymmetry is 85.0/100 at roughly $13.5B current market cap, which is why size matters more here than business quality alone.
The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 139.3%, gross margin 45.4%, operating margin -20.5%, profit margin -59.5%, FCF margin -468.9%. Component support: growth acceleration 69.9, survivability 40.4.
APLD's catalyst is the shortage of powered AI data-center capacity. The story is easy to understand: power plus data-center capacity is scarce, and AI demand is enormous. The harder question is whether APLD can finance and deliver that capacity without giving away too much upside through dilution, debt, or project delays.
July technical setup is 55/100 from refreshed price history: 20-day return -25.8%, 60-day return 41.0%, 120-day return 20.2%, distance from 52-week high -30.0%. Above 50dma: false; above 200dma: true.
For July this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 106.0%, call/put OI 1.5, call/put volume 4.9, OTM call OI share 33.3%, short % float 29.9%, short ratio 3.3. Component support: options asymmetry 83.4, squeeze bonus 0.0.
The Goldilox math is roughly $13.5B current market cap versus a $30.0B bull case, or about 2.22x. That supports the 2x list cleanly. The 5x case is a stretch outcome requiring successful scale-up across multiple projects with equity economics intact.
Current Path to Target
A 2x requires visible leasing, financing clarity, and proof that new AI data-center capacity can be delivered on time and at attractive economics. The market needs to see contracted cash flow, not just land/power optionality.
The 5x case requires APLD to become a scaled AI-infrastructure landlord/operator while avoiding dilution, construction overruns, and customer concentration problems. It is possible, but it is a high-execution, capital-intensive path.
The July +35% path is a rerating-plus-execution case: Applied Digital is a scarce-powered-capacity story, not a clean software-like AI winner. A move into the +35% band needs the fresh July technical setup to hold, the AI-infrastructure catalyst to keep showing up in orders/revenue/guidance, and no evidence that the risk is financing and execution.
Current Key Risk
The risk is financing and execution. If projects slip, costs rise, customers delay, or capital markets tighten, the equity can get diluted or de-rated even if long-term AI data-center demand remains strong.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
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