Cipher Digital Inc.
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Cipher is no longer just a bitcoin miner with cheap power; it is trying to become a contracted AI/HPC data-center developer. The market is paying up for scarce, powered data-center capacity, and Cipher already has what hyperscalers need most: large-scale power sites, interconnection work, construction capability, and signed tenants. In 2025, Cipher secured 600 MW of contracted HPC capacity across AWS and Fluidstack/Google, financed major builds with $3.73B of project debt, and rebranded to Cipher Digital to reflect the shift. The stock is risky because execution is front-loaded and leverage has risen, but the upside mechanism is clear: convert power pipeline into long-duration leases, turn leases into NOI, then let infrastructure-style valuation replace bitcoin-mining multiples.
Current Pillar Scores
The setup still offers a favorable risk/reward versus consensus if the power compute conversion thesis keeps working.
Limited earnings history with uncertain operational performance and transformation potential.
May refresh: CIFR’s key catalyst is contract conversion, not bitcoin price. Cipher has secured 600 MW gross contracted HPC capacity: a 15-year 300 MW AWS lease and a 10-year 300 MW Fluidstack/Google lease. Management says current leases represent roughly $9.3B of contracted revenue and projected average annualized NOI of about $669M from Oct. 2026-Sept. 2036. Barber Lake and Black Pearl are financed and under construction, and Barber Lake had roughly 95% of long-lead equipment secured as of the FY2025 update.
CIFR at $13 trades below both the 50-day ($15) and 200-day ($13) moving averages with downtrend remains intact. Stock is 50% below its 52-week high of $26 — deeply oversold.
May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 49.8/100, built from Google 50.0; Reddit 40.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 70.0; Short interest 45.0. Divergence read: No clear signal (Buzz: 50, Price: -1.4%).
At roughly $7.3B market cap, a 5x implies about $36B equity value. Current signed leases alone are not enough, but they establish the unit economics: roughly $669M annual NOI on 600 MW, or about $1.1M/MW. If Cipher leases 2.5-3.0 GW over time at similar economics, annual NOI could move toward $2.5B-$3.3B. At a 10% cap rate, that supports $25B-$33B asset value before upside from pipeline scarcity; tighter cap rates or more GW conversion can bridge to 5x.
Current Path to Target
At roughly $7.3B market cap, a 5x implies about $36B equity value. Current signed leases alone are not enough, but they establish the unit economics: roughly $669M annual NOI on 600 MW, or about $1.1M/MW. If Cipher leases 2.5-3.0 GW over time at similar economics, annual NOI could move toward $2.5B-$3.3B. At a 10% cap rate, that supports $25B-$33B asset value before upside from pipeline scarcity; tighter cap rates or more GW conversion can bridge to 5x.
Current Key Risk
Execution and leverage risk. Cipher must deliver large construction projects on time and on budget while servicing billions of project debt; delays, cost inflation, tenant issues, or power/interconnection setbacks can compress the infrastructure rerating.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
Subscribe for monthly updates on this stock and the full rankings
Keep the latest thesis current, while the appearance history shows how conviction evolved over time.
Subscribe Free →