Upside RanksStocksEQT

EQT Corporation

Latest active analysis · May 2026
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Current Price:$60.180%Entry: $60.18
Market Cap:$37.6B

Latest List Rankings

+35% List
Month:May 2026
Rank:#6
Probability:35.1%

Current Synopsis

EQT is the careful AI power bottleneck entry: it does not sell AI products, but it owns low-cost Appalachian natural gas at a time when data centers and grid reliability are making electricity availability a strategic constraint. Q1 2026 was unusually strong: sales volume reached 618 Bcfe, realized natural gas price was $5.27/Mcf before hedges and $5.07/Mcf after NYMEX hedges, net income attributable to EQT was $1.49B, diluted EPS was $2.36, adjusted EBITDA attributable to EQT was $2.55B, and free cash flow attributable to EQT hit a record $1.83B. Management highlighted accelerating U.S. power demand, particularly in Appalachia, and framed EQT as positioned to serve domestic power demand and LNG markets. The +35% upside case should be framed through gas prices, infrastructure, and power demand — not direct AI revenue.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap78.5/100

Market continues pricing EQT as commodity producer despite contracted revenue streams at Henry Hub premiums.

Earnings Momentum95/100

Exceptional quarterly results driven by datacenter contracted volumes, with clear visibility into 2026-2027 revenue growth as additional facilities come online.

Catalyst Edge58/100

May +35% refresh: domestic power demand is colliding with constrained reliable fuel supply. EQT’s edge is location and scale: Appalachia sits near growing power/data-center discussions, while EQT has low unit costs, midstream integration, and LNG optionality. The AI link is electricity demand and grid reliability, not direct AI revenue.

Technical Setup70/100

EQT at $61 trades above both the 50-day ($60) and 200-day ($56) moving averages with strong uptrend intact. Stock is 10% below its 52-week high of $68 — healthy pullback.

Social Momentum43.3/100

May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 43.3/100, built from Google 41.1; Reddit 40.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 50.0; Short interest 40.0. Divergence read: Buzz falling (43) but price up (+2.9%) = EXHAUSTION.

Goldilox Upside30.2/100

The Goldilox path is stronger power-sector gas demand, LNG pull, and disciplined supply growth without a gas price spike that destroys demand or invites overproduction. A +35% move can come from sustained free cash flow, deleveraging toward the $5B debt target, dividend/buyback capacity, and the market assigning more value to reliable-power-fuel exposure.

Current Path to Target

+35% List Target

The Goldilox path is stronger power-sector gas demand, LNG pull, and disciplined supply growth without a gas price spike that destroys demand or invites overproduction. A +35% move can come from sustained free cash flow, deleveraging toward the $5B debt target, dividend/buyback capacity, and the market assigning more value to reliable-power-fuel exposure.

Current Key Risk

Commodity cyclicality remains the main risk. Gas prices, basis differentials, permitting delays, pipeline constraints, weather, and curtailments can overwhelm the data-center/power narrative.

Current Key Metrics

Q1 2026 sales volume
618 Bcfe
Operating revenues
$3.38B vs. $1.74B YoY
Net income attributable to EQT
$1.49B vs. $242M YoY
Diluted EPS
$2.36 vs. $0.40 YoY
Adjusted EPS
$2.33 vs. $1.18 YoY
Adjusted EBITDA attributable to EQT
$2.55B
Net cash from operating activities
$3.06B
Free cash flow attributable to EQT
record $1.83B
Realized natural gas price
$5.27/Mcf before hedges; $5.07/Mcf after NYMEX hedges
Total per-unit operating costs
$1.09/Mcfe
Debt
$6.0B total debt; just under $5.7B net debt
FY26 sales volume guidance
2,275-2,375 Bcfe
Sources
EQT Q1 2026 results; EQT IR release; Q1 2026 transcript summary
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps3
Months2
Best rank#1
Best prob47.1%
MonthMay 2026
List+35% List
Rank#6
Prob35.1%
MonthApril 2026
List+35% List
Rank#1
Prob47.1%
MonthApril 2026
List2x List
Rank#1
Prob14.7%

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