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IREN Limited

Latest active analysis · May 2026
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Current Price:$43.200%Entry: $43.20
Market Cap:$14.3B

Latest List Rankings

2x List
Month:May 2026
Rank:#11
Probability:8.5%

Current Synopsis

IREN is the highest-beta Bitcoin-miner-to-AI-cloud transition in the 2x group. The setup rests on whether investors believe IREN’s renewable-power data-center footprint can be monetized as GPU cloud rather than valued as cyclical mining infrastructure. Q2 FY26 revenue was $184.7M, down from Q1’s $240.3M as capacity shifted from mining toward AI, but management says AI cloud revenue is accelerating as deployments ramp. The centerpiece is the Microsoft AI-cloud agreement: $9.7B multi-year contract economics, $3.6B GPU financing secured, and an expected $1.94B average annual revenue contribution. IREN is targeting 140k GPUs and $3.4B AI Cloud ARR by end-CY26, including estimated $1.5B ARR from about 63k GPUs in British Columbia. It also added a 1.6 GW Oklahoma campus, taking secured grid-connected power above 4.5 GW.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap64.1/100

Value Gap score from the May refreshed model: 64.1/100.

Earnings Momentum70/100

Earnings Momentum score from the May refreshed model: 70.0/100.

Catalyst Edge69/100

May 2x refresh: the Microsoft contract and GPU financing de-risk the first major AI-cloud leg. The company targets $3.4B AI Cloud ARR by end-CY26 versus sub-$1B trailing revenue, creating major operating-leverage potential if utilization and pricing hold. More than 4.5 GW secured power gives expansion optionality beyond the initial 140k GPU target. The thesis is multiple migration from bitcoin miner to vertically integrated AI cloud/data-center platform.

Technical Setup40/100

Technical Setup score from the May refreshed model: 40.0/100.

Social Momentum49/100

May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 49.0/100, built from Google 50.0; Reddit 40.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 70.0; Short interest 40.0. Divergence read: No clear signal (Buzz: 49, Price: +0.9%).

Goldilox Upside59.7/100

The 2x path is a multiple migration: from volatile bitcoin miner to contracted AI cloud/data-center infrastructure platform. If IREN demonstrates Microsoft deployment on schedule, signs additional AI customers, and converts British Columbia capacity into contracted ARR, equity value can re-anchor around AI-infrastructure cash flow rather than BTC hash economics. The path is compelling, but only if management proves the $3.4B ARR target is executable, not aspirational.

Current Path to Target

2x List Target

The 2x path is a multiple migration: from volatile bitcoin miner to contracted AI cloud/data-center infrastructure platform. If IREN demonstrates Microsoft deployment on schedule, signs additional AI customers, and converts British Columbia capacity into contracted ARR, equity value can re-anchor around AI-infrastructure cash flow rather than BTC hash economics. The path is compelling, but only if management proves the $3.4B ARR target is executable, not aspirational.

Current Key Risk

Execution and credibility risk. The $3.4B ARR target is not fully contracted; it assumes on-time GPU delivery, commissioning, utilization, and pricing. IREN also still carries bitcoin, financing, and power-interconnection risk.

Current Key Metrics

Price / Market Cap
~$45.5 / ~$15B
Q2 FY26 revenue
$184.7M
Q1 FY26 revenue
$240.3M
Q2 FY26 net loss
-$155.4M
EPS
N/A / volatile due bitcoin mark-to-market and AI-cloud transition timing
Q1 FY26 net income
$384.6M
Q2 FY26 adjusted EBITDA
$75.3M
Q1 FY26 adjusted EBITDA
$91.7M
Microsoft contract
expected $1.94B average annual revenue
AI Cloud target
140k GPUs and $3.4B ARR by end-CY26
Cash and equivalents
$2.8B as of Jan. 31, 2026
Sources
IREN Q2 FY26 results; GlobeNewswire mirror; IREN reports page
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps2
Months2
Best rank#9
Best prob8.5%
MonthMay 2026
List2x List
Rank#11
Prob8.5%
MonthApril 2026
List5x List
Rank#9
Prob4.0%

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