Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Lumentum supplies optical components and systems used in cloud/data-center, data-center interconnect, long-haul, and related photonics markets. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue was $808.4M, up 90.1% year over year, with non-GAAP operating margin of 32.2% and Q4 revenue guidance of $960M-$1.01B. AI stack position: AI networking/optical bottleneck: LITE participates in optical components, optical circuit switches, co-packaged optics, pump lasers, and scale-across components that can matter as AI clusters become larger and more bandwidth/power constrained.
Current Pillar Scores
2x model: valuation-to-growth is 79.5/100 with convexity 78.9/100; that means the score is rewarding growth-adjusted asymmetry, not cheapness in isolation.
The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 90.1%, gross margin 40.8%, operating margin 21.8%, profit margin 17.7%, FCF margin 3.8%. Component support: growth acceleration 76.6, survivability 65.9.
Catalyst Edge is the human-researched AI-thesis score: 84/100, with AI thesis alignment 86/100. AI networking/optical bottleneck: LITE participates in optical components, optical circuit switches, co-packaged optics, pump lasers, and scale-across components that can matter as AI clusters become larger and more bandwidth/power constrained. The main upside evidence: Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue grew 90.1% year over year to $808.4M.; Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 32.2%, showing strong operating leverage.; Management cited optical circuit switches and co-packaged optics as future earnings-power drivers; Q2 disclosed OCS backlog above $400M and an incremental multi-hundred-million-dollar CPO order deliverable in first-half calendar 2027..
July technical setup is 48/100 from refreshed price history: 20-day return -22.2%, 60-day return 3.7%, 120-day return 103.9%, distance from 52-week high -26.2%. Above 50dma: false; above 200dma: true.
For July this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 96.7%, call/put OI 0.9, call/put volume 0.9, OTM call OI share 39.2%, short % float 13.0%, short ratio 1.5. Component support: options asymmetry 79.4, squeeze bonus 3.0.
Goldilox is the bull-case market-cap math: $66.5B current market cap vs $125.0B qualitative bull market cap, or about 1.88x. 2x: A 2x requires Lumentum to become a recognized mission-critical AI optical systems supplier, with OCS backlog converting, CPO orders validating 2027 revenue, and gross/operating margins sustaining near or above Q3/Q4 guidance. This is one of the cleaner 2x qualitative setups in the batch, but not cheap. The guardrails are: AI optical demand is lumpy and can be customer-concentrated.; OCS/CPO are still ramping; order timing and architecture adoption are not fully de-risked.; Q4 guidance is missed or management signals AI optical orders are being pushed out.; OCS backlog fails to convert or CPO order visibility weakens materially..
Current Path to Target
A 2x requires Lumentum to become a recognized mission-critical AI optical systems supplier, with OCS backlog converting, CPO orders validating 2027 revenue, and gross/operating margins sustaining near or above Q3/Q4 guidance. This is one of the cleaner 2x qualitative setups in the batch, but not cheap.
The July +35% path is a rerating-plus-execution case: Lumentum supplies optical components and systems used in cloud/data-center, data-center interconnect, long-haul, and related photonics markets. A move into the +35% band needs the fresh July technical setup to hold, the AI-infrastructure catalyst to keep showing up in orders/revenue/guidance, and no evidence that ai optical demand is lumpy and can be customer-concentrated.; ocs/cpo are still ramping; order timing and architecture adoption are not fully de-risked.; current quant valuation already reflects a major ai optical re-rating.; convertible preferred issuance boosted cash but can complicate common-equity upside analysis.
Current Key Risk
AI optical demand is lumpy and can be customer-concentrated.; OCS/CPO are still ramping; order timing and architecture adoption are not fully de-risked.; Current quant valuation already reflects a major AI optical re-rating.; Convertible preferred issuance boosted cash but can complicate common-equity upside analysis.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
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