Lam Research Corporation
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Lam Research supplies wafer-fabrication equipment, especially etch and deposition, used across memory and logic. AI drives demand indirectly through HBM, advanced DRAM/NAND, leading-edge logic, and advanced packaging process complexity. AI stack position: Semicap manufacturing bottleneck: tools needed to build advanced memory, HBM-adjacent structures, NAND and logic process steps that feed AI accelerators and data-center infrastructure.
Current Pillar Scores
+35% model: valuation sanity is 42.0/100, supported by EV/sales 18.3x, FCF yield 1.1%, gross margin 50.0%, profit margin 30.9%.
The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 23.8%, earnings growth 40.8%, gross margin 50.0%, operating margin 35.0%, profit margin 30.9%, FCF margin 20.1%. Component support: growth consistency 82.8.
Catalyst Edge is the human-researched AI-thesis score: 72/100, with AI thesis alignment 86/100. Semicap manufacturing bottleneck: tools needed to build advanced memory, HBM-adjacent structures, NAND and logic process steps that feed AI accelerators and data-center infrastructure. The main upside evidence: HBM/advanced DRAM and NAND capex tied to AI data-center demand; Rising process complexity increases etch/deposition steps per wafer; Foundry/logic recovery alongside memory strength.
Technical setup comes from price action, not opinion: 20-day return 23.9%, 60-day return 48.2%, 120-day return 100.7%, 60-day relative strength vs QQQ 26.8%, 1-year max drawdown -20.0%, distance from 52-week high -4.5%, 60-day annualized volatility 59.3%. Above 50dma: True; above 200dma: True.
For June this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 66.7%, call/put OI 0.8, call/put volume 0.5, OTM call OI share 30.5%, short % float 2.9%, short ratio 3.5. Component support: options confirmation 58.0.
Goldilox is the bull-case market-cap math: $397.9B current market cap vs $600.0B qualitative bull market cap, or about 1.51x. 35%: +35% is credible if WFE spending broadens from AI memory into leading-edge foundry/logic, HBM and DRAM capex remain tight, and Lam's etch/deposition intensity rises with more complex 3D structures. The guardrails are: Semicap remains cyclical and customers can pause capex abruptly; China restrictions/export controls and regional capex mix risk; Demote if WFE outlook weakens or memory customers signal capex digestion; Cut from 2x consideration if AI/HBM demand does not translate into Lam-specific order strength.
Current Path to Target
+35% is credible if WFE spending broadens from AI memory into leading-edge foundry/logic, HBM and DRAM capex remain tight, and Lam's etch/deposition intensity rises with more complex 3D structures.
Current Key Risk
Semicap remains cyclical and customers can pause capex abruptly; China restrictions/export controls and regional capex mix risk; Memory capex can overshoot, then correct; Valuation already embeds a strong equipment cycle
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
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