META

+35% model: valuation sanity is 71.5/100, supported by EV/sales 7.5x, FCF yield 1.6%, gross margin 81.9%, profit margin 32.8%.

The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 33.1%, earnings growth 62.4%, gross margin 81.9%, operating margin 40.6%, profit margin 32.8%, FCF margin 11.9%. Component support: growth consistency 95.9.

Catalyst Edge is the human-researched AI-thesis score: 72/100, with AI thesis alignment 93/100. Core AI application/platform and hyperscale AI infrastructure buyer: Meta is not a vendor pick-and-shovel, but it is one of the largest deployers of AI models, recommendation systems, ads automation, consumer AI and data-center capex. The main upside evidence: Q1 revenue grew 33% YoY with operating margin stable at 41%, showing AI/capex investment has not yet broken core profitability.; Meta guided Q2 revenue to $58B-$61B and said 2026 operating income should exceed 2025 operating income.; Release of the first model from Meta Superintelligence Labs and continued AI-ad product improvements could sustain ad price/impression growth..

Technical setup comes from price action, not opinion: 20-day return 3.9%, 60-day return -4.2%, 120-day return -5.9%, 60-day relative strength vs QQQ -25.6%, 1-year max drawdown -33.3%, distance from 52-week high -20.4%, 60-day annualized volatility 40.2%. Above 50dma: True; above 200dma: False.

For June this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 35.2%, call/put OI 1.9, call/put volume 2.9, OTM call OI share 62.8%, short % float 1.5%, short ratio 2.1. Component support: options confirmation 82.5.

Goldilox is the bull-case market-cap math: $1.61T current market cap vs $2.20T qualitative bull market cap, or about 1.37x. 35%: +35% is plausible if ad growth remains above 25%, Meta proves AI improves ad pricing/engagement, and investors tolerate the increased 2026 capex range of $125B-$145B because operating income still rises above 2025. At the quant market cap of ~$1.61T, a ~$2.2T bull case is about 1.37x. The guardrails are: 2026 capex guidance increased to $125B-$145B, so free cash flow durability depends on AI ROI showing up quickly enough.; Regulatory, privacy and platform risks remain large at Meta's scale.; Demote if revenue growth slows materially while capex/expense guidance keeps rising.; Demote if operating income guidance no longer exceeds 2025 or free cash flow deteriorates more than expected..