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Micron Technology, Inc.

Latest active analysis · July 2026
Scoring glossary →
Entry / Current:$1,032.280%
Market Cap:$1.17T

Latest List Rankings

+35% List
Month:July 2026
Rank:#5
Probability:38.5%

Current Synopsis

Micron is the memory-cycle name with the most direct AI torque. HBM, high-capacity server DRAM, and data-center SSD demand all tie back to the same constraint: AI systems need more bandwidth and memory per accelerator. The +35% case is not simply “memory is up”; it is that investors decide HBM and AI-server memory are creating a tighter, more durable cycle than the classic boom-bust DRAM playbook.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap73.8/100

+35% model: valuation sanity is 73.8/100, supported by EV/sales 18.8x, FCF yield 0.3%, gross margin 58.4%, profit margin 41.5%.

Earnings Momentum97.7/100

The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 196.3%, earnings growth 756.0%, gross margin 58.4%, operating margin 67.6%, profit margin 41.5%, FCF margin 5.0%. Component support: growth consistency 97.7.

Catalyst Edge78/100

Micron's catalyst is the memory bottleneck inside AI systems. More capable models require more bandwidth, more HBM, more server DRAM, and more storage. The thesis is compelling, but it has to be framed as cyclical upside with AI tailwinds — not as a permanently de-cycled semiconductor story.

Technical Setup87/100

July technical setup is 87/100 from refreshed price history: 20-day return -3.0%, 60-day return 173.3%, 120-day return 204.0%, distance from 52-week high -17.7%. Above 50dma: true; above 200dma: true.

Social Momentum54.5/100

For July this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 101.1%, call/put OI 0.7, call/put volume 1.3, OTM call OI share 12.3%, short % float 3.1%, short ratio 0.8. Component support: options confirmation 54.5.

Goldilox Upside51.1/100

The Goldilox case is roughly $1.10T today versus a $1.60T bull-case market cap, or about 1.46x. That supports the +35% list if the market extends the AI memory cycle, but it also leaves little room for a classic memory-cycle reversal.

Current Path to Target

+35% List Target

+35% works if Micron meets or raises guidance, HBM4 ramps smoothly into next-generation accelerators, and investors underwrite a longer AI memory cycle rather than fading the move as a peak-cycle blowoff.

Current Key Risk

Micron is still a memory stock. Supply response, ASP pressure, customer digestion, HBM qualification/timing issues, or a capex scare could turn today’s margin strength into perceived peak-cycle risk quickly.

Current Key Metrics

July quant market cap
$1.17T
Goldilox bull market cap
$1.60T
Normalized Goldilox multiple
1.46x
AI thesis / Catalyst Edge
96 / 78
BRRR list placement
35% rank #5 (quant score 80.9)
Primary drivers
HBM4 36GB 12H volume shipments began in Q1 CY2026 for NVIDIA Vera Rubin; 16-high 48GB HBM4 is sampling and HBM4E is targeted for 2027 ramp.; AI is expected to push data-center bit TAM above 50% of total industry TAM for the first time in CY2026.; Supply constraints are broad across DRAM and NAND; management expects tight conditions through CY2026 and beyond.
Cut conditions
Demote if HBM4 ramp/yield commentary weakens or customer/platform timing slips.; Cut from 2x if gross margin guidance peaks or rolls over while capex continues rising.
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps4
Months4
Best rank#2
Best prob45.9%
MonthJuly 2026
List+35% List
Rank#5
Probability38.5%
MonthJune 2026
List+35% List
Rank#3
Probability42.8%
MonthMay 2026
List+35% List
Rank#3
Probability43.7%
MonthApril 2026
List+35% List
Rank#2
Probability45.9%

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