Nebius Group N.V.
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Nebius is an AI-native cloud infrastructure company with hyperscale GPU/data-center capacity, cloud software, inference products, and related AI businesses. It is scaling from revenue ramp to large contracted power/data-center buildout rather than operating as a mature cloud platform. AI stack position: Core AI compute layer: GPU cloud, AI factories, training/inference infrastructure, orchestration, and developer cloud services directly exposed to AI workload growth.
Current Pillar Scores
2x model: valuation-to-growth is 78.9/100 with convexity 75.1/100; that means the score is rewarding growth-adjusted asymmetry, not cheapness in isolation.
The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 683.9%, gross margin 72.1%, operating margin -32.1%, profit margin 93.1%, FCF margin -700.3%. Component support: growth acceleration 70.1, survivability 62.4.
Catalyst Edge is the human-researched AI-thesis score: 78/100, with AI thesis alignment 96/100. Core AI compute layer: GPU cloud, AI factories, training/inference infrastructure, orchestration, and developer cloud services directly exposed to AI workload growth. The main upside evidence: Q1 2026 revenue of $399M, up 684% YoY, with AI Cloud revenue of $389.7M, up 841% YoY.; Annualized run-rate revenue reached $1.92B; company targets $7B-$9B ARR by year-end 2026 and $3.0B-$3.4B FY26 revenue.; Adjusted EBITDA was $129.5M in Q1; shareholder letter targets about 40% adjusted EBITDA margin for FY26..
Technical setup comes from price action, not opinion: 20-day return 49.6%, 60-day return 141.6%, 120-day return 135.7%, 60-day relative strength vs QQQ 120.2%, 1-year max drawdown -45.5%, distance from 52-week high -1.1%, 60-day annualized volatility 105.2%. Above 50dma: True; above 200dma: True.
For June this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 112.3%, call/put OI 0.9, call/put volume 0.8, OTM call OI share 15.3%, short % float 20.7%, short ratio 2.6. Component support: options asymmetry 77.0, squeeze bonus 5.0.
Goldilox is the bull-case market-cap math: $58.7B current market cap vs $105.0B qualitative bull market cap, or about 1.79x. 2x: A 2x requires the market to underwrite $7B-$9B YE26 ARR, ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin, Meta/enterprise contracts converting into utilization, and owned AI-factory capacity as a durable moat rather than commodity GPU resale. The guardrails are: Massive capex intensity: Q1 purchases of property/equipment/intangibles were about $2.47B and future financing needs remain large.; Execution risk in bringing gigawatts of power and data-center capacity online on schedule and at expected economics.; ARR trajectory falls materially below the path needed for $7B-$9B by YE26.; Connected-power target of 800MW-1GW by YE26 becomes unlikely or capex per MW deteriorates materially..
Current Path to Target
A 2x requires the market to underwrite $7B-$9B YE26 ARR, ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin, Meta/enterprise contracts converting into utilization, and owned AI-factory capacity as a durable moat rather than commodity GPU resale.
Current Key Risk
Massive capex intensity: Q1 purchases of property/equipment/intangibles were about $2.47B and future financing needs remain large.; Execution risk in bringing gigawatts of power and data-center capacity online on schedule and at expected economics.; Customer concentration and contract timing risk, especially around large Meta commitments/options.; Competitive risk from hyperscalers, CoreWeave-like GPU clouds, and internal customer AI infrastructure buildout.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
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