Nebius Group N.V.
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Nebius is an AI-native cloud infrastructure company with hyperscale GPU/data-center capacity, cloud software, inference products, and related AI businesses. It is scaling from revenue ramp to large contracted power/data-center buildout rather than operating as a mature cloud platform. AI stack position: Core AI compute layer: GPU cloud, AI factories, training/inference infrastructure, orchestration, and developer cloud services directly exposed to AI workload growth.
Current Pillar Scores
2x model: valuation-to-growth is 78.9/100 with convexity 75.1/100; that means the score is rewarding growth-adjusted asymmetry, not cheapness in isolation.
The earnings/growth score is driven by reported fundamentals, not narrative. revenue growth 683.9%, gross margin 72.1%, operating margin -32.1%, profit margin 93.1%, FCF margin -700.3%. Component support: growth acceleration 70.1, survivability 62.4.
Catalyst Edge is the human-researched AI-thesis score: 78/100, with AI thesis alignment 96/100. Core AI compute layer: GPU cloud, AI factories, training/inference infrastructure, orchestration, and developer cloud services directly exposed to AI workload growth. The main upside evidence: Q1 2026 revenue of $399M, up 684% YoY, with AI Cloud revenue of $389.7M, up 841% YoY.; Annualized run-rate revenue reached $1.92B; company targets $7B-$9B ARR by year-end 2026 and $3.0B-$3.4B FY26 revenue.; Adjusted EBITDA was $129.5M in Q1; shareholder letter targets about 40% adjusted EBITDA margin for FY26..
July technical setup is 77/100 from refreshed price history: 20-day return -12.1%, 60-day return 103.6%, 120-day return 138.2%, distance from 52-week high -23.6%. Above 50dma: true; above 200dma: true.
For July this pillar is better read as options/positioning confirmation, not social-media fluff. ATM implied volatility 112.3%, call/put OI 0.9, call/put volume 0.8, OTM call OI share 15.3%, short % float 20.7%, short ratio 2.6. Component support: options asymmetry 77.0, squeeze bonus 5.0.
Goldilox is the bull-case market-cap math: $58.7B current market cap vs $105.0B qualitative bull market cap, or about 1.79x. 2x: A 2x requires the market to underwrite $7B-$9B YE26 ARR, ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin, Meta/enterprise contracts converting into utilization, and owned AI-factory capacity as a durable moat rather than commodity GPU resale. The guardrails are: Massive capex intensity: Q1 purchases of property/equipment/intangibles were about $2.47B and future financing needs remain large.; Execution risk in bringing gigawatts of power and data-center capacity online on schedule and at expected economics.; ARR trajectory falls materially below the path needed for $7B-$9B by YE26.; Connected-power target of 800MW-1GW by YE26 becomes unlikely or capex per MW deteriorates materially..
Current Path to Target
A 2x requires the market to underwrite $7B-$9B YE26 ARR, ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin, Meta/enterprise contracts converting into utilization, and owned AI-factory capacity as a durable moat rather than commodity GPU resale.
The July +35% path is a rerating-plus-execution case: Nebius is an AI-native cloud infrastructure company with hyperscale GPU/data-center capacity, cloud software, inference products, and related AI businesses. A move into the +35% band needs the fresh July technical setup to hold, the AI-infrastructure catalyst to keep showing up in orders/revenue/guidance, and no evidence that massive capex intensity: q1 purchases of property/equipment/intangibles were about $2.47b and future financing needs remain large.; execution risk in bringing gigawatts of power and data-center capacity online on schedule and at expected economics.; customer concentration and contract timing risk, especially around large meta commitments/options.; competitive risk from hyperscalers, coreweave-like gpu clouds, and internal customer ai infrastructure buildout.
Current Key Risk
Massive capex intensity: Q1 purchases of property/equipment/intangibles were about $2.47B and future financing needs remain large.; Execution risk in bringing gigawatts of power and data-center capacity online on schedule and at expected economics.; Customer concentration and contract timing risk, especially around large Meta commitments/options.; Competitive risk from hyperscalers, CoreWeave-like GPU clouds, and internal customer AI infrastructure buildout.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
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