NBIS
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
Nebius is one of the cleaner AI-infrastructure pure plays: an AI cloud operator scaling from early revenue into hyperscale capacity with Microsoft and Meta as validation customers. FY25 revenue rose 479% to $529.8M, Q4 revenue rose 547% YoY to $227.7M, and core AI business Q4 revenue hit $214M, up 802% YoY. The bigger tell is run-rate acceleration: Nebius ended 2025 at $1.25B ARR, above its $900M-$1.1B guidance, and guided to $7B-$9B ARR by year-end 2026. The company ended 2025 with about 170 MW active power, already above its 100 MW target, and now expects more than 3 GW contracted power by year-end 2026, plus 800 MW-1 GW connected power. If it executes the 2026 buildout, NBIS can rerate toward a European/US neo-cloud hyperscaler.
Current Pillar Scores
The setup still offers a favorable risk/reward versus consensus if the gpu cloud hpc thesis keeps working.
AI compute scarcity persists long enough to support outsized growth
May 2x refresh: NBIS has real customer validation and a major capacity ramp. Microsoft and Meta capacity was delivered on time, with Meta reportedly fully in servicing stage. The key upside anchor is management’s $7B-$9B ARR target by year-end 2026 versus $1.25B ARR at year-end 2025. The company also targets more than 3 GW contracted power, 800 MW-1 GW connected power, and deployments across NVIDIA B300, GB300, and Vera Rubin systems.
Current setup is based on the May refresh using live price, beta, and volatility inputs. Beta 1.06 and annualized volatility 101.8% influence the more aggressive tiers.
May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 49.0/100, built from Google 50.0; Reddit 40.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 70.0; Short interest 40.0. Divergence read: Buzz + price both falling = DOWNTREND.
The 2x path depends on Nebius proving it can jump from $530M FY25 revenue to multi-billion 2026 revenue/ARR without margin collapse. A credible path to $7B-$9B ARR, positive core AI EBITDA margins, and expanding owned data-center economics could justify a much larger cloud-infrastructure multiple. The rerating trigger is not merely demand; it is proof that contracted/secured power converts into revenue-generating AI cloud capacity on schedule.
Current Path to Target
The 2x path depends on Nebius proving it can jump from $530M FY25 revenue to multi-billion 2026 revenue/ARR without margin collapse. A credible path to $7B-$9B ARR, positive core AI EBITDA margins, and expanding owned data-center economics could justify a much larger cloud-infrastructure multiple. The rerating trigger is not merely demand; it is proof that contracted/secured power converts into revenue-generating AI cloud capacity on schedule.
Current Key Risk
Execution and financing risk. 2026 requires huge capex, hardware delivery, power interconnects, and customer onboarding. Any slippage could make the ARR target look promotional and compress the multiple fast.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
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