Upside RanksStocksNVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Latest active analysis · May 2026
Scoring glossary →
Current Price:$200.340%Entry: $200.34
Market Cap:$4.9T

Latest List Rankings

+35% List
Month:May 2026
Rank:#1
Probability:45.9%

Current Synopsis

NVIDIA remains the cleanest AI infrastructure upside story because the revenue mechanism is still compounding, not merely cycling. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue hit $68.1B, up 73% YoY, with Data Center revenue at $62.3B, up 75% YoY. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue reached $215.9B, up 65%, while GAAP net income was $120.1B and diluted EPS was $4.90. The key is that Blackwell is now monetizing inference economics, not just training demand. Management framed Grace Blackwell plus NVLink as delivering order-of-magnitude lower token cost, while Rubin is positioned to extend that cost curve. That matters because hyperscalers and enterprises are moving from model buildout to agentic workloads, where lower inference cost expands usage. The +35% path depends less on AI hype and more on sustained Data Center growth, 75% gross margins, and credible FY27 guidance of $78B Q1 revenue.

Current Pillar Scores

Value Gap85.6/100

Despite premium valuations relative to historical norms, NVIDIA's positioning in the fastest-growing technology segment with sustained competitive advantages supports current multiples.

Earnings Momentum95/100

Continued revenue acceleration with expanding margins as AI infrastructure spending scales globally, though growth rate comparisons become challenging.

Catalyst Edge62/100

May +35% refresh: Blackwell Ultra/Rubin transition, hyperscaler AI factory capex, inference cost collapse, and expanding enterprise-agent adoption. Data Center revenue was $62.3B in Q4 FY26, up 75% YoY, and Q1 FY27 revenue guidance of $78B excluding China Data Center compute revenue implies another step-change quarter. The catalyst is lower token cost expanding usage, not just more GPUs for training clusters.

Technical Setup85/100

NVDA at $176 trades below both the 50-day ($183) and 200-day ($180) moving averages with downtrend remains intact. Stock is 17% below its 52-week high of $212 — meaningful correction.

Social Momentum63.8/100

May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 63.8/100, built from Google 57.7; Reddit 90.0; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 70.0; Short interest 40.0. Divergence read: Buzz + price both rising = MOMENTUM.

Goldilox Upside25.6/100

If Data Center keeps compounding while gross margin holds near 75%, investors can justify a higher earnings base without needing major multiple expansion. A +35% move can come from forward EPS estimate revisions as Blackwell ramps, Rubin visibility improves, and inference workloads broaden the TAM.

Current Path to Target

+35% List Target

If Data Center keeps compounding while gross margin holds near 75%, investors can justify a higher earnings base without needing major multiple expansion. A +35% move can come from forward EPS estimate revisions as Blackwell ramps, Rubin visibility improves, and inference workloads broaden the TAM.

Current Key Risk

China/export controls, hyperscaler digestion, custom ASIC substitution, and supply-chain dependence on foundry and advanced packaging capacity.

Current Key Metrics

Q4 FY26 revenue
$68.1B, +73% YoY
Q4 Data Center revenue
$62.3B, +75% YoY
FY26 revenue
$215.9B, +65%
FY26 GAAP net income
$120.1B
FY26 diluted EPS
$4.90
Q4 GAAP / non-GAAP gross margin
75.0% / 75.2%
Q1 FY27 revenue guide
$78.0B ±2%, excluding China Data Center compute revenue
Sources
NVIDIA Q4 FY26 press release; NVIDIA investor release
Track record

BRRR Appearance History

Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.

Apps2
Months2
Best rank#1
Best prob45.9%
MonthMay 2026
List+35% List
Rank#1
Prob45.9%
MonthApril 2026
List+35% List
Rank#5
Prob40.4%

Subscribe for monthly updates on this stock and the full rankings

Keep the latest thesis current, while the appearance history shows how conviction evolved over time.

Subscribe Free →