Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Latest List Rankings
Current Synopsis
TSMC is the toll road for AI compute, and the latest quarter shows that the toll rate is improving. Q1 2026 revenue was NT$1.134T, about $35.9B, with net income of NT$572.5B, diluted EPS of NT$22.08, and gross margin at 66.2%. The mechanism is mix: AI accelerators pull more wafers onto 3nm/5nm, larger die sizes consume more advanced capacity, and advanced packaging remains a gating factor for NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Apple, and other leading-edge customers. TSMC also raised full-year 2026 revenue growth expectations to above 30% in USD terms, showing the AI cycle is large enough to offset consumer and smartphone cyclicality. A +35% move is plausible if investors keep re-rating TSM from cyclical foundry toward scarce AI infrastructure capacity, especially as CoWoS, N2, and U.S./Taiwan capacity expansion deepen the moat.
Current Pillar Scores
Despite monopoly positioning in the most critical manufacturing step for AI infrastructure, TSMC trades at reasonable multiples due to geopolitical discount and traditional foundry cyclicality assumptions.
Advanced node utilization rates above 95% with pricing increases implemented for 2026 production as supply constraints intensify.
May +35% refresh: AI accelerator demand, CoWoS/advanced packaging scarcity, N2 ramp, pricing power on advanced nodes, and above-30% FY26 USD revenue growth guidance. The market is increasingly valuing TSMC as scarce AI infrastructure capacity rather than a generic foundry cycle.
TSM at $343 trades below the 50-day ($347) but above the 200-day ($288) with consolidating near key support. Stock is 12% below its 52-week high of $389 — healthy pullback.
May refresh uses the real BRRR Buzz Score engine, not the fallback volume proxy. Current Buzz Score: 51.8/100, built from Google 50.1; Reddit 56.9; Wikipedia 50.0; Options 60.0; Short interest 40.0. Divergence read: Buzz falling (52) but price up (+6.4%) = EXHAUSTION.
The upside case is operating leverage. Advanced-node mix plus high utilization can keep gross margin in the mid-60s while revenue grows faster than prior expectations. If investors underwrite above-30% USD revenue growth as durable AI capacity scarcity, a +35% equity move does not require heroic multiple expansion.
Current Path to Target
The upside case is operating leverage. Advanced-node mix plus high utilization can keep gross margin in the mid-60s while revenue grows faster than prior expectations. If investors underwrite above-30% USD revenue growth as durable AI capacity scarcity, a +35% equity move does not require heroic multiple expansion.
Current Key Risk
Taiwan geopolitics, customer concentration, capex/depreciation pressure, export controls, and any yield or capacity slip in N2 or advanced packaging.
Current Key Metrics
BRRR Appearance History
Current analysis stays canonical. This is the compact scoreboard of where the name has shown up across monthly BRRR lists.
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