Leopold Aschenbrenner
The AGI Prophet
Situational Awareness LP
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a German-born AI researcher who became one of the most influential voices in AGI forecasting before he turned 25. Born to two doctors in Germany, he enrolled at Columbia University at just 15 years old and graduated valedictorian at 19. He joined OpenAI's Superalignment team under Ilya Sutskever, working on ensuring superintelligent AI remains safe. In April 2024, OpenAI fired him over an alleged information leak — which Aschenbrenner disputes, claiming he was pushed out for raising safety concerns. He published 'Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,' a series of essays arguing that AGI will surpass human intelligence by 2027, creating unprecedented economic and military power shifts. The essays went viral. He then launched Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund investing in the AGI buildout thesis, backed by Stripe founders Patrick and John Collison, Daniel Gross, and Nat Friedman. The fund exploded from $383M to $5.52B in equity positions by Q4 2025. His Q4 pivot was striking: he exited NVDA, AVGO, and TSM (the chip plays) and loaded up on power generation, BTC miners, and data center infrastructure — betting the AGI bottleneck has shifted from chips to energy and physical capacity.
“AGI is coming by 2027. The bottleneck is shifting from compute to power. Invest in the physical infrastructure that makes AI possible — not just the chips, but the energy, cooling, and capacity.”
Bloom Energy (BE) — top position at 20.6% of portfolio ($875M)
Largest single bet in the fund. Thesis: AI data centers need massive power generation, and Bloom's fuel cells solve the grid bottleneck.
Intel (INTC) — held a tiny $37 position after trimming 100%
The contrarian semiconductor bet that hasn't paid off. Intel continues to struggle against NVDA/AMD.
“AGI is no longer a question of if, but when. And when is soon.”
“The race to AGI is not just a technological competition — it's a geopolitical one.”
Born in Germany to two doctors
Enrolls at Columbia University at age 15
Graduates Columbia valedictorian at 19
Joins OpenAI Superalignment team under Ilya Sutskever
Fired from OpenAI — publishes 'Situational Awareness' essays
Launches Situational Awareness LP hedge fund
Fund grows from $383M to $5.52B — massive AI infrastructure bets
Q4 pivot: exits NVDA, AVGO, TSM — loads BTC miners, power, data centers
| # | Position | Name | Shares | Value | % Port |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMHPUT OPTION | VANECK ETF TRUST | 5.3M | $2.0B | 14.9% |
| 2 | NVDAPUT OPTION | NVIDIA CORPORATION | 9.0M | $1.6B | 11.5% |
| 3 | ORCLPUT OPTION | ORACLE CORP | 7.3M | $1.1B | 7.8% |
| 4 | AVGOPUT OPTION | BROADCOM INC | 3.3M | $1.0B | 7.4% |
| 5 | AMDPUT OPTION | ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | 4.8M | $969.2M | 7.1% |
| 6 | BESHARES | BLOOM ENERGY CORP | 6.5M | $878.7M | 6.4% |
| 7 | SNDKSHARES | SANDISK CORP | 1.1M | $724.4M | 5.3% |
| 8 | MUPUT OPTION | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | 1.7M | $583.7M | 4.3% |
| 9 | CRWVSHARES | COREWEAVE INC | 7.2M | $556.1M | 4.1% |
| 10 | TSMPUT OPTION | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | 1.6M | $535.1M | 3.9% |
| 11 | ASMLPUT OPTION | ASML HLDG NV N Y REGISTRY | 374.1K | $494.1M | 3.6% |
| 12 | MUCALL OPTION | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | 1.3M | $422.3M | 3.1% |
| 13 | IRENSHARES | IREN LIMITED | 11.7M | $401.0M | 2.9% |
| 14 | CORZSHARES | CORE SCIENTIFIC INC NEW | 26.0M | $389.1M | 2.8% |
| 15 | SNDKCALL OPTION | SANDISK CORP | 611.9K | $388.8M | 2.8% |
| 16 | TSMCALL OPTION | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | 1.1M | $354.8M | 2.6% |
| 17 | APLDSHARES | APPLIED DIGITAL CORP | 13.5M | $320.0M | 2.3% |
| 18 | INTCPUT OPTION | INTEL CORP | 3.6M | $159.1M | 1.2% |
| 19 | RIOTSHARES | RIOT PLATFORMS INC | 11.5M | $142.2M | 1.0% |
| 20 | CRWVCALL OPTION | COREWEAVE INC | 1.8M | $140.6M | 1.0% |
| 21 | CLSKSHARES | CLEANSPARK INC | 12.3M | $104.5M | 0.8% |
| 22 | SEISHARES | SOLARIS ENERGY INFRAS INC | 1.1M | $62.5M | 0.5% |
| 23 | BECALL OPTION | BLOOM ENERGY CORP | 408.5K | $55.3M | 0.4% |
| 24 | TESHARES | T1 ENERGY INC | 10.0M | $43.9M | 0.3% |
| 25 | BITFSHARES | BITFARMS LTD | 19.9M | $38.8M | 0.3% |
| 26 | BTDRSHARES | BITDEER TECHNOLOGIES GROUP | 3.4M | $29.8M | 0.2% |
| 27 | PSIXSHARES | POWER SOLUTIONS INTL INC | 432.3K | $26.3M | 0.2% |
| 28 | GLWPUT OPTION | CORNING INC | 154.6K | $21.0M | 0.2% |
| 29 | WYFISHARES | WHITEFIBER INC | 1.8M | $20.9M | 0.2% |
| 30 | AMDSHARES | ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | 99.1K | $20.2M | 0.1% |
| 31 | BWSHARES | BABCOCK & WILCOX ENTERPRISES | 1.4M | $19.9M | 0.1% |
| 32 | SRAISHARES | SHARONAI HOLDINGS INC | 796.1K | $18.1M | 0.1% |
| 33 | PUMPSHARES | PROPETRO HLDG CORP | 910.3K | $13.1M | 0.1% |
| 34 | SMHSHARES | VANECK ETF TRUST | 26.9K | $10.3M | 0.1% |
| 35 | INTCSHARES | INTEL CORP | 202.3K | $8.9M | 0.1% |
| 36 | TSMSHARES | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | 22.4K | $7.6M | 0.1% |
| 37 | INFYPUT OPTION | INFOSYS LTD | 500.0K | $6.8M | 0.0% |
| 38 | HIVESHARES | HIVE DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES LT | 3.4M | $6.4M | 0.0% |
| 39 | ASMLSHARES | ASML HLDG NV N Y REGISTRY | 4.6K | $6.1M | 0.0% |
| 40 | MUSHARES | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | 17.4K | $5.9M | 0.0% |
| 41 | GLWSHARES | CORNING INC | 5.3K | $718.3K | 0.0% |
| 42 | NVDASHARES | NVIDIA CORPORATION | 2.9K | $497.9K | 0.0% |
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